reports
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Company consensus added
We are slightly below consensus on Q1e LCY sales growth (we forecast 19.4%, consensus 21.4%) and LCY operating profit growth (we forecast 16.8%, consensus 19.5%), due to lower expected Wegovy sales. However, we believe the Ozempic US prescription trend will prompt management to raise the 2024 guidance to LCY sales growth of 20–28% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 23–31% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.
- Håkon Astrup
Pareto Bank (Buy, TP: NOK68.00) - Loan-loss downtick
Helped by further NII expansion and a loan-loss downtick, Pareto Bank reported a solid Q1 ROE of 14.3%. While the CET1 ratio fell QOQ after strong lending growth (2.2% QOQ), the bank has a still-solid ~1.4%-point headroom to its 16.7% target. With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~6.7x, we continue to find the valuation attractive. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK68 (63).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Ozempic to drive raised guidance
We are slightly below consensus on Q1 LCY sales growth (we forecast 19.4%, consensus 20.1%) and LCY operating profit growth (we forecast 16.8%, consensus 17.3%), due to lower expected Wegovy sales. However, we believe the trend in Ozempic US prescriptions will prompt management to raise the 2024 guidance to LCY sales growth of 20–28% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 23–31% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.
- Håkon Astrup
Pareto Bank (Buy, TP: NOK63.00) - Strong loan-loss absorption capacity
Supported by solid NII and firm cost efficiency, we expect a Q1 ROE of 13.1% (results due at c07:30 CET on 25 April). While we expect some provisions in the challenged real estate development segment, we find the bank’s business model, with in-depth sector knowledge, thorough credit assessments and close customer relationships, supportive of asset quality. With the stock trading at a ~13% discount to 2024e book value, we continue to find the risk/reward attractive, seeing prospects for 2025–2026...
- Håkon Astrup
Scope for continued strong earnings
Seeing support from still-high interest rates and sound fundamentals, we expect solid NII and robust asset quality to contribute to continued strong earnings generation for the banks, despite the stable and eventually falling key policy rate trajectory. Trading at an average 2025e P/E of ~8.5x (adjusted for undistributed 2023 dividends), we continue to find the valuation undemanding. We maintain a positive view on the sector and highlight SVEG as our top pick.
- Jørgen Lian
A brewing challenge for the yards
Our 17th Annual Energy & Shipping Conference was well attended by investors and industry executives showcasing the still-growing interest for the sectors. Limited yard capacity is fuelling high newbuilding prices and raising freight rate expectations for the vast fleet renewal necessary in the coming decade. Long lead times underpin a bullish supply story for much of shipping in the coming years, albeit exposed to geopolitical risks affecting trade patterns. Our overall impression was general op...
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
LPG DORIAN LPG
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MAERSK B A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK A/S CLASS B
ODF ODFJELL ASA
WAWI WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS ASA
WWI WILHELM WILHELMSEN HOLDING
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
AMSC AMERICAN SHIPPING COMPANY ASA
SN6 STOLT-NIELSEN LTD.
BWLPG BW LPG LTD.
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
AVACF AVANCE GAS HOLDINGS LTD
HUNT HUNTER GROUP ASA
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
FLNG FLEX LNG LTD.
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
2020 2020 BULKERS LTD
KCC KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
MPCC MPC CONTAINER SHIPS AS
HAUTO HOEGH AUTOLINERS ASA
WEST WESTERN BULK CHARTERING
HAFNI HAFNIA
COOL COOL COMPANY LTD.
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Raising the bar with amycretin
At its CMD, the company maintained its strategic aspirations for 2025. It also expects increasing operating profit margins in the coming years. A key focus was the phase I trial results for amycretin in obesity, showing 13.1% weight loss (no signs of plateau). While not confirmed, we still expect it to go directly to phase III development. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,100 (1,000) on higher pipeline valuation.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Catalent: game changer
We believe the move by Novo Holding to acquire Catalent and re-sell the three fill-finish facilities to Novo Nordisk is inspired, and underpins the strength of having the foundation as a major shareholder. With the acquisition, the obesity opportunity moves from supply to demand-driven, while at the same time making scale a significant competitive advantage. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to DKK1,000 (800).
- Jørgen Lian
Genco Shipping & Trading (Buy, TP: USD22.50) - Consistent market stren...
We still believe Genco offers an attractive entry into dry bulk exposure, with its material NAV discount (P/NAV: 0.76x) offsetting what we see as elevated vessel values. The current dry bulk markets are staying firm against the risks of easing import demand growth in China on subdued economic indicators and elevated coal stockpiles. Strong forward freight agreements (FFAs) provide comfort to revenues and cash flow near-term, while the long-term investment case remains intact, in our view. We rei...
- Håkon Astrup
Sparebanken Sør (Buy, TP: NOK159.00) - Further NII and cost expansion
Helped by sustained NII expansion (+4.1% QOQ), SOR reported a Q4 ROE of 10.5%, despite negative trading income and elevated cost inflation. The board proposed a 2023 DPS of NOK10.0, implying a ~61% payout ratio (~50% policy) and a 6.9% dividend yield. With the stock trading at a dividend-adjusted 2025e P/E of 8.0x, we continue to find the valuation undemanding. We reiterate our BUY and NOK159 target price.
- Jørgen Lian
A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK9500.00) - No relief in sight
Maersk’s 2024 outlook solidified our view that headline spot rate movements should be insufficient to save liners from a challenging market that should soon see a race to the bottom once more. In the ensuing dogfight, someone will have to lose out in order to rebalance a vastly oversupplied market. With such an outlook, current cash buffers are of limited value to investors. We reiterate our SELL, and have cut our target price to DKK9,500 (10,400).
- Jørgen Lian
A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK10400.00) - Expect the unexpected
The 2024 guidance should be the highlight of the Q4 report and clarify the potential implications for Maersk of Red Sea disruptions in an uncertain container market. Assuming normalisation in H2, we reiterate our SELL but have raised our target price to DKK10,400 (9,600).
Novo Nordisk AS: 6 directors
Six Directors at Novo Nordisk AS sold after exercising options/sold 388,571 shares at between 797.100DKK and 823.090DKK. The significance rating of the trade was 75/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all ...
- Jørgen Lian
Genco Shipping & Trading (Buy, TP: USD20.70) - Bulkers at a considerab...
We believe Genco offers investors an attractive entry into dry bulk exposure, with its material NAV discount offsetting what we see as elevated vessel values in light of modest prevailing TC rates. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to USD20.7 (19.0).
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
AcadeMedia AB (Buy, TP: SEK63.00) - Q3e share redemption
The Q2 results were in line with expectations with still-strong FCF generation and an indication of 4–5% school-voucher price adjustments for 2024, now better offsetting ongoing cost inflation. We have only tweaked our EPS forecasts following the results. We see a solid demand outlook and an attractive valuation (2023/24–2025/26e FCF yields of 14–21%), with the upcoming Q3e share redemption (equal to a buyback of c3.8% of shares outstanding) starting to counter ‘value trap’ arguments. We reitera...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK800.00) - Solid wide guidance
The wide 2024 guidance for local currency (LCY) growth of 18–26% for sales and 21–29% for operating profit reflects the uncertainty over supply and demand for Ozempic and Wegovy. Yet the sharp capex increase highlights confidence in the long-term growth outlook. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to DKK800 (750) on a solid Q4 result and outlook.
- Håkon Astrup
Pareto Bank (Buy, TP: NOK63.00) - Profitability remains resilient
Despite individual provisions contributing to elevated loan losses, PARB reported a solid Q4 ROE of 13.8%, helped by strong NII (+5.7% QOQ) and firm cost efficiency. The board proposed a 2023 DPS of NOK3.9, indicating a ~53% payout ratio and a 7.1% dividend yield. With the stock trading at a 2025e dividend-adjusted P/E of ~5.9x, we continue to find the risk/reward attractive. We have raised our 2024–2025e EPS by ~1–2%, with higher NII only partly offset by increased loan losses. We reiterate our...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK750.00) - Company consensus added
We forecast Q4 LCY sales growth of 36.4% YOY (consensus 37.0%) and LCY operating profit growth of 61.7% (consensus 58.5%). For Q4 Ozempic and Wegovy sales, we are well below consensus, with our calculations indicating consensus has included inventory build-up well above our forecasts. We expect 2024 guidance for 18–24% LCY sales growth and 22–28% LCY operating profit growth. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK750 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK750.00) - Likely below 2023 mid-point targe...
Based on US scripts, we believe LCY sales growth slowed in Q4 and forecast 2023 below the guidance mid-point of 33.9% YOY. Benefiting from product mix, we estimate 2023 LCY operating profit growth at the guidance mid-point. We expect 2024 guidance for 18–24% LCY sales growth and 22–28% LCY operating profit growth. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK750 target price.
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