Pandora AS: 1 director

A director at Pandora AS sold 5,000 shares at 1,138.250DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 73/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sh...

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK9000.00) - Challenging the deep value...

The Q1 results proved disappointing to buy-side expectations, though reasonably aligned and even bullish compared to near-term consensus. Their market commentary could raise expectations above the upper end of the potentially conservative guidance, but we struggle to see the intrinsic value when facing the bleak container markets for 2025–2026e. We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to DKK9,000 (9,600).

Continued strong demand will make a difference

Surprisingly strong container demand makes a big difference. '24e EBITDA of USD 6.2bn. TP of DKK 12,800 (13,260) – BUY.

A strong start to the year

Pandora (Buy, TP: DKK1400.00) - More than charming growth

Top-line growth was once again much stronger than expected, with Q1 LFL growth accelerating to c11%, and trading comments suggest still-solid momentum in April. While comparables are becoming tougher, we believe the brand momentum supported by incremental growth opportunities could prove the revised guidance conservative again. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,400 target price.

Better guidance, but within expectations

Q1'24 EBITDA of USD 1,590m (ABGSCe at USD 1,941, cons. at USD 1,604m). Segments - miss for Ocean and Logistics & Services, beat in Terminals and Towage. Lower end of guidance lifted, share slightly up today.

Higher guidance, 15% beat on Q1 EBIT

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK10.50) - Improved funding outlook

We expect strong unsecured collections in Q1, building on 10% higher unsecured ERC YOY, which should offset the gradual decline in the secured segment. Interest rates have started to flatten in recent months, which, together with bond refinancing at favourable terms, should ease earnings pressure. We have made limited 2025–2026e EPS changes, and reiterate our BUY and NOK10.5 target price.

Yard response and dry bulk qualms

Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.

Demant (Buy, TP: DKK400.00) - 2024 likely to be back-end loaded

We forecast Q1 organic revenue growth of 4.7% YOY (in line with consensus), driven by Hearing Care (we forecast 4.9%) and Diagnostics (we forecast 8.4%), while Hearing Aids faces a tough YOY comparable (we forecast 3.6%). We expect 2024 to be back-end loaded and driven by Oticon Intent. We expect maintained 2024 guidance of 4–8% organic growth, c1% M&A growth, c-1% FX, and EBIT of DKK4.6bn–5.0bn. We reiterate our BUY and DKK400 target price.

Too cheap with near-term earnings upside

Underlying demand much better than expected. Guidance upgrade likely - ABGSCe '24 EBITDA +20% vs. cons.. TP of DKK 13,260 (10,700) – BUY (Hold).

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK9600.00) - Loose ends into Q1 results

There is a substantial discrepancy between container liners’ reported and guided revenue for Q1, as the impacts of the Red Sea disruption and resurgent freight rates are revealed. Near-term consensus could be too low, but the 2025–2026 outlook is set to be much worse than the market believes. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to DKK9,600 (9,500).

Medistim (Hold, TP: NOK190.00) - Sales in Americas weaken

Revenues grew 3.5% YOY in Q1 (currency-neutral total sales grew 2.2%), below our estimate c6%. The EBIT margin of 24% was almost back to normal and in our view shows the low margin in Q4 2023 (16.4%) should be seen as a one-off. However, we remain concerned about revenue growth, especially in the Americas, after the fifth consecutive quarter of declining currency-neutral sales. Thus, while we reiterate our HOLD, we have lowered our 2024–2026e sales by c3–8% and cut our target price to NOK190 (21...

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - Weak Q1 due to higher cost...

Norwegian Air Shuttle traded down c7% on Wednesday on weaker than expected Q1 results hit by higher costs, which made the market question the reiterated 2024 CASK guidance. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to NOK21 (23) on negative estimate revisions, reflecting slightly revised cost assumptions.

ATH profits next

Weak Q1 in a seasonally small quarter, upbeat outlook kept. Unit costs need to improve - key for confidence. '24e EPS down 2.5%. BUY, TP NOK 21.

Pandora (Buy, TP: DKK1400.00) - Likely strong start to the year

Driven by strong brand momentum, increased investments and phased network expansion, we expect Pandora to have seen a strong start to the year (Q1 results due at 07:30 CET on 2 May). We forecast c15% organic growth YOY for Q1 (consensus c12%) and, as flagged by the company, a subdued EBIT margin due to investments. We continue to regard the full-year guidance as conservative (as has tended to be the case) and believe it could be updated with the results. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,400 target ...

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA Minor model adjustments

We have marginally lowered our 2024-2026 estimates (results due at 07:00 CET on 8 May), on the more impactful Red Sea disruptions and the company’s estimated USD5m–10m negative EBITDA effect from the Baltimore bridge collapse. We believe WAWI could further renew its contract portfolio at significantly higher levels and build earnings momentum for the years ahead. So far in 2024, the company has announced USD2.8bn of committed contracts (nearly USD1bn in annual revenues, or 19% of 2023, for the n...

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK23.00) - Widerøe set for take-off

Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS NO, Buy) - Widerøe set for take-off (34 pages)

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK20.00) - March traffic statistics

We consider this a slightly positive report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, including strong figures for Norwegian Air, slightly weak figures from Widerøe, and a cautious outlook for April. We expect 1–2% positive revisions to consensus 2024e EBITDA and believe a slightly positive share price reaction is warranted.

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK20.00) - March traffic statistics p...

The March traffic statistics are due at 08:00 CET on 5 April. We are positive ahead of the report, expecting a continued positive trend for yield and load. We reiterate our BUY and NOK20 target price.