reports
- ING Helpdesk
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Kris Kippers
Recticel - Volume growth curbing price deflation
Q1 was in line with expectations whereby volume growth was able to curb the persist price deflationNo rebound yet in newbuild but renovation is able to curb thisAll in all, we stick to our neutral stance and set our TP at EUR 12.0/share or 9x EV/EBITDA (2025e)
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Basic-Fit: 1Q24 update in line, FY24 outlook in line with consensus at mid-point. bpost: Agreement on Flemish newspaper delivery; risk of provisions largely removed. Cofinimmo: Q1 results in line. Corbion: Tail wags the dog. IMCD: The last hurdle was a harsh clip. Proximus: Strong start to the year, guidance unchanged ahead of Digi arrival. Recticel: Kingspan 1Q24 trading update. Signify: 1Q24 results; revenue decline accelerates. Umicore: Confirms FY 2024 EBITDA guidance range. ...
- Maxime Stranart
- Stijn Demeester
Recticel/Convincing 4Q23 results and FY24 outlook/BUY
We reiterate our BUY rating and €15 target price after Recticel's FY23 results. We remain convinced by the medium-to-long term potential of the Insulation market, which should provide Recticel with ample room to grow both organically and through M&A thanks to its net cash position. We view future acquisitions as a key catalyst for the share price over the short term, as these would confirm the ambition of the group to materially grow in the non-residential Insulated Panels segment. We believe th...
- Wim Hoste
Recticel Model update – still firepower for further growth
We have finetuned our earnings model post the FY23 results release. From a low base we expect Recticel to grow adjusted EBITDA by c. 33% in FY24, with about half of the growth coming from the recently acquired Rex business and the remainder mainly coming from savings initiatives. We expect building markets to only improve materially as from 2025. While we still believe in the strategic attractiveness of Recticel's (mainly) polyurethane focussed insulation offering, we deem valuation is about fai...
- Wim Hoste
Recticel Feedback conference call
Below are the highlights from the conference call. FY23 adjusted EBITDA dropped by 39% to 39.2m, which was at the high end of the 35-40m guidance range and slightly better than our and consensus forecasts which were close to the midpoint of the guidance range. Recticel did not give a precise 2024 guidance but expects a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA, which is incorporated in our and consensus forecasts, partly on the consolidation effect of the recently acquired Rex business. After the ...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
AB InBev: A Bit Light, Bud. Ackermans & van Haaren: Core units AM/Banks and DEME. Adecco: Beats by 17% on 4Q23 EBITA; outlook solid. Air France-KLM: Peak reached already? Allfunds Group PLC: MoreFunds. ASR: 2H23 squeezed between two CMDs, no surprises. Belgian telecoms: Digi to launch convergent offers in Belgium. CM.com: FY23 results, EBITDA positive in 2H23. Fugro: Strong? Excellent!. NN Group: FY23 better, modest 2025 targets, capital distribution strategy better. Recticel...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Kristof Samoy
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
- Kris Kippers
Recticel - Anticipated earnings improvement is underway
• FY23 results were a bit better than anticipated.• Despite low visibility, Recticel is confident to ‘significantly' increase EBITDA in 2024, which is more or less as anticipated.• Following today's analyst meeting, we will fine-tune our estimates and review our target price. Hold reiterated.
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Atenor: Permits granted for Realex project in Brussels. Belgian telcos: Telenet ‘investment year' and commitment to regain ‘commercial agility'. DEME Group: Preview - packed offshore wind backlog. Euronext: Strong finish. Heijmans: Preview - M&A related one-offs in 2H23. KPN: VodafoneZiggo 4Q23 weak fixed, solid mobile, single digit EBITDA growth guided. Recticel: Kingspan profitability in line with expectations. Umicore: 2H23 EBITDA miss, soft 2024F outlook. Coverage change
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ArcelorMittal: 4Q23 EBITDA beats by 5%, solid FCF. Ayvens: Messier than expected. Barco: 2H23 results, less topline decline, weak cash generation. Flow Traders: Low Flow. KBC: 4Q reasonable, DPS low, new targets show cost drive, NII 2024 guidance in line. Lotus Bakeries: Opening of its first production facility for Näkd. Montea: FY results in line, further fiscal one-offs might drive more generous dividend. Ontex: Out of the shadow, into the light. Recticel: Peer Rockwool FY23 re...
- Maxime Stranart
- Stijn Demeester
Recticel/A new challenger in European Insulated Panels/BUY
We reiterate our BUY rating on Recticel and increase our target price to €15.0. We welcome positively the acquisition of REX Profiles, which will materially increase the weight of Insulated Panels into the mix at c.40% of sales (INGF). On top of this, we believe this acquisition can generate material synergies for the group on several levels, especially on cross-selling opportunities. Despite this acquisition, Recticel's balance sheet remains very healthy with a net cash position of INGF c.€130m...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ageas: Debt issue by YE23 boosts China Solvency. Eurocommercial Properties: Unsurprising Woluwe Shopping Center expansion issues. Fugro: Two more geotechnical vessels acquired. IBA: Nice new Proteus One contract in Poland. NN Group: Longevity deals (+8%) vs Mortgage spreads (-8%). Philips: Another recall hurts sentiment. Recticel: Breaking into PIR Insulated Panels with the acquisition of REX. Van Lanschot Kempen: Accuro acquisition, bolt-ons in Belgium to accelerate
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Kris Kippers
Recticel - Aiming for 'king in panels' by acquiring REX
*Recticel announced the purchase of REX, hereby doubling its potential in insulated panels in one go for an EV of EUR 70m*The price paid seems hefty on past earnings but given REX' limited utilization and modern footprint, the multiple ought to drop rapidly*We like the transaction but the end markets for Recticel remain clearly in the doldrums with both volume and price pressure - Hold
- Maxime Stranart
- Stijn Demeester
Recticel/Easy comps to start 2024F/BUY
We reiterate our BUY on Recticel, as we believe that: (1) Recticel will cycle easy comps as of 1H24F, with 1H23 having seen a weak performance in both Insulation Boards and Insulated Panels; and (2) the group is well positioned to experience a period of growth, both organically and through targeted acquisitions in Insulated Panels thanks its positioning as a pure play Insulation player and its >€150m net cash position. We believe this will limit the volatility of Recticel's earnings, the non-res...
- ING Helpdesk
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