reports
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Adecco: 3Q24 miss; stabilising trends in 3Q24 and into 4Q24; accelerating cost savings. B&S Group: 3Q24 preview - liquor bottoming into 4Q24? Coca-Cola Europacific Partners: Almost the real thing. D'Ieteren: Belgian October car registrations down 5.5%, VW down 11%. Kinepolis: Oct US/Canada box office at 59% of pre Covid level, France recovery to 78%. Recticel: 3Q24 compares well with Kingspan. Renewi: 1H25 preview - battling cost inflation with self help. Syensqo: Slight beat on 3Q...
- Wim Hoste
Recticel FIRST LOOK: 3Q LFL revenue growth +6%, FY guidance maintained
3Q revenue growth accelerated to 6% on a like for like basis, with revenue of € 156.6m slightly above our and consensus forecasts. Recticel reiterated its FY guidance of around € 50m adjusted EBITDA. Although we do believe in the longer term growth prospects of the insulation market, short term multiples are not particularly appealing with EV/EBITDA25e of c 10x and so we reiterate our Hold rating for now.
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Aalberts: 3Q24 preview - no signs of recovery expected. AB InBev: All to play for in the final quarter. Arcadis: A mixed bag. Ayvens: Struggling to get out of neutral. dsm-firmenich: Taking your vitamins is healthy. D'Ieteren: Belron equity at €23.5bn, EV €32.2bn in minority shareholder transaction. Euronext: 3Q24 and CMD Preview. Flow Traders: Bumper harvest. Heijmans: 3Q24 as expected, keeps FY outlook in place. Proximus: Key politician pushing for major governance shake up. ...
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
UCB UCB S.A.
DIE D'IETEREN SA
REC RECTICEL SA
HEIJM HEIJMANS N.V. CERT
VLK
ARCAD VAN LANSCHOT KEMPEN NV CERT. OF SHS
AALB ARCADIS NV
ABI AALBERTS N.V.
ALD ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
SHEL ALD SA
FLOW SHELL PLC
DSFIR FLOW TRADERS LTD
KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Maxime Stranart
- Stijn Demeester
Recticel/Volumes growth back on the agenda/BUY
We reiterate our BUY and increase our target price from €15 to €16 following Recticel's 1H24 results, to reflect a lower WACC and broadly stable estimates. We remain convinced by the medium-to-long term potential of the Insulation market - this should provide Recticel with ample room to grow organically and, thanks to its net cash position, through M&A. We view future acquisitions as a key catalyst for the share price over the short term, as these would confirm the ambition of the group to mater...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ING Benelux Conference London: Aalberts, Arcadis, Azelis, Barco, Basic-Fit, Brunel International, DEME Group, Euronext, Fagron, Heijmans, Kinepolis, Lotus Bakeries, Melexis, Ontex, Randstad, Recticel, SBM Offshore, TKH Group, Van Lanschot Kempen Other company stories - OCI: Divestment of Methanol to Methanex for US$2.05bn, Staffing: US August temp volumes marginally better trend; NFP jobs miss
BFIT BASIC-FIT NV
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
FAGR FAGRON SA
RAND RANDSTAD NV
LOTB LOTUS BAKERIES NV
REC RECTICEL SA
HEIJM HEIJMANS N.V. CERT
VLK
ARCAD VAN LANSCHOT KEMPEN NV CERT. OF SHS
AALB ARCADIS NV
OCI AALBERTS N.V.
BRNL OCI NV
ONTEX BRUNEL INTERNATIONAL N.V.
MELE ONTEX GROUP N.V.
TWEKA MELEXIS NV
KIN TKH GROUP N.V. CERT
BAR KINEPOLIS GROUP NV
AZE BARCO NV
DEME AZELIS GROUP NV
DEME GROUP NV
- Jacob Mekhael
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Recticel Model update – Structural growth drivers but no ST support fr...
We have finetuned our earnings model post the 1H24 results release, with adjusted EBITDA forecasts for FY24-26 lowered by between 2% and 5%, reflecting the competitive landscape (mainly in the Boards business). Despite the reduced forecasts, we still expect Recticel to grow adjusted EBITDA by c. 31% in FY24 and by 19% in FY25, benefiting from savings initiatives and the Rex integration & growth. Building markets are bottoming out, but we do not expect meaningful improvement in momentum until 202...
- Wim Hoste
Recticel Feedback conference call
Below are the highlights from the 1H results conference call. On the back of double digit underlying volume growth, 1H Adj EBITDA jumped by 38% to € 25.1m, which was roughly in line with our forecast and c 3m above consensus. Although Recticel expects to have seen the market bottom in Western Europe whilst noting an improvement in the UK, FY guidance of around € 50m adjusted EBITDA is slightly below our and consensus forecasts of respectively € 52m and € 54m. Although we do believe in the longer...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ackermans & van Haaren: Indian participation casts shadow over excellent result of core segments. ASML: Spotlight on export restrictions again. Basic-Fit: Dutch parliament persists in plans to raise VAT for oa Sports to 21%. CFE: Earnings quality improved in challenging markets. Eurocommercial Properties: Better numbers, guidance moved toward the higher end of the range. OCI: IFCO sale successfully closed, cash return unlocked Recticel: Solid 1H24 beat, FY guidance may disappoint. SIF Grou...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Recticel FIRST LOOK: 1H adj EBITDA +38%, FY guidance slightly below co...
On the back of double digit underlying volume growth, 1H Adj EBITDA jumped by 38% to € 25.1m, which was roughly in line with our forecast and c 3m above consensus. Although Recticel expects to have seen the market bottom in Western Europe whilst noting an improvement in the UK, FY guidance of around € 50m adjusted EBITDA is slightly below our and consensus forecasts of respectively € 52m and € 54m. Although we do believe in the longer term growth prospects of the insulation market, short term mu...
- ING Helpdesk
- ING Helpdesk
- ING Helpdesk
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Kris Kippers
Recticel - Volume growth curbing price deflation
Q1 was in line with expectations whereby volume growth was able to curb the persist price deflationNo rebound yet in newbuild but renovation is able to curb thisAll in all, we stick to our neutral stance and set our TP at EUR 12.0/share or 9x EV/EBITDA (2025e)
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Basic-Fit: 1Q24 update in line, FY24 outlook in line with consensus at mid-point. bpost: Agreement on Flemish newspaper delivery; risk of provisions largely removed. Cofinimmo: Q1 results in line. Corbion: Tail wags the dog. IMCD: The last hurdle was a harsh clip. Proximus: Strong start to the year, guidance unchanged ahead of Digi arrival. Recticel: Kingspan 1Q24 trading update. Signify: 1Q24 results; revenue decline accelerates. Umicore: Confirms FY 2024 EBITDA guidance range. ...
- Maxime Stranart
- Stijn Demeester
Recticel/Convincing 4Q23 results and FY24 outlook/BUY
We reiterate our BUY rating and €15 target price after Recticel's FY23 results. We remain convinced by the medium-to-long term potential of the Insulation market, which should provide Recticel with ample room to grow both organically and through M&A thanks to its net cash position. We view future acquisitions as a key catalyst for the share price over the short term, as these would confirm the ambition of the group to materially grow in the non-residential Insulated Panels segment. We believe th...
- Wim Hoste
Recticel Model update – still firepower for further growth
We have finetuned our earnings model post the FY23 results release. From a low base we expect Recticel to grow adjusted EBITDA by c. 33% in FY24, with about half of the growth coming from the recently acquired Rex business and the remainder mainly coming from savings initiatives. We expect building markets to only improve materially as from 2025. While we still believe in the strategic attractiveness of Recticel's (mainly) polyurethane focussed insulation offering, we deem valuation is about fai...
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