Q1 reporting season kicks off

Q1 reporting season kicked off this week, with results from Nyfosa, Entra, Wallenstam, Fabege, KMC Properties, Pandox, and Catena. In other news, Public Property Invest is to be listed on the Oslo stock exchange on 29 April. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.75% for 2024e and 5.04% for 2025e.

Striving to improve margins - up to BUY

Weather weight as expected, but a more bullish margin story evolving. We increase our estimates by 5-10% from improved UW. Up to BUY (Hold) with TP NOK 195 (171); 10% upside.

The weekly navigator

The key takeaways from this week are: 1) we raised our target price on Investor to SEK290 (260) as we see continued outperformance characteristics; 2) we cut our target price on Kinnevik to SEK135 (140) but reiterated our BUY, as we see continuously declining writedown risk in a more concentrated growth portfolio; and 3) VNV Global reported an unchanged Q1 NAV QOQ in USD terms.

Pandox (Hold, TP: SEK175.00) - Q1 in line, fairly valued

Q1 FFOps was in line with our estimate but below Infront consensus. While we have made only minor forecast changes, following the recent share performance and as the stock is trading close to our target price, we have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) but reiterate our SEK175 target price.

Gjensidige Forsikring (Buy, TP: NOK197.00) - Turning point in sight

Harsh weather during Q1 led to elevated claims and a combined ratio deterioration of 5.7%-points YOY despite insurance revenues growing 11% YOY. Adjusting for weather and other items, the claims ratio improved 0.2%-points YOY, a sign that the sharp repricing efforts during 2023 are starting to take effect. Combined with signs of abating claims frequencies and further repricing, we expect continued underwriting improvements. We reiterate our BUY, having raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 3% and our tar...

The worst should now be behind us

Q1 weaker than expected. Earnings scenario only tweaked for 2025e-26e. Valuation support, but short-term uncertainty remains.

Wallenstam (Sell, TP: SEK40.00) - Eyeing project starts once again

We consider the Q1 results neutral, and, adjusting for a JV one-off, we were in line on PFPM. Wallenstam is looking to start a development project in Q2 (only the second since Q3 2022), and management stated that rents have risen considerably in new developments and that it will only start projects in the best locations to meet demand right now. We consider the valuation demanding on cash earnings, and reiterate our SELL and our SEK40 target price.

Weather weighs on underwriting; life beat (corrected)

Adj. PTP -7% vs IR cons, -3% vs ABGSCe, as reported CR 92.6%. High premium growth of 11%, in line with us and cons. Cons. est. -1% to -3% amid UW, life mute; stock -1% to -4%

Weak Q1 driven by elevated loan losses

Miss even incl. one-off items

The weekly navigator

The key takeaways from the past week are: 1) we raised our target price on VEF to SEK3.5 (3.4) and reiterated our BUY; 2) Kinnevik lowered the value of its unlisted portfolio by 5% QOQ in Q1 and proposed a SEK23/share cash distribution; and 3) Patricia Industries reported a strong Q1 in Johan Forssell’s last quarterly report as Investor’s CEO.

EPBD the big story this week

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. In other news, KMC Properties bought a new asset and appointed an interim CEO, JM got a new CEO, while Castellum announced a divestment and new leases, and Atrium Ljungberg kicked off Q1 reporting season. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.74% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2...

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK15.00) - Credit losses taking their toll

We see downside risk to current consensus on the adj. loan loss ratio potentially hitting an all-time high in Q1, which is seemingly not factored in. Moreover, the net banking income margin (total income / total lending) looks set to continue ticking down after having been stable for eight quarters, which would again call into question if it can remain stable going forward. We have made minor changes to our 2025–2026e EPS and reiterate our HOLD and SEK15 target price.

The weekly navigator

Our key takeaways from the past week are: 1) we reiterated our HOLD on Industrivärden, but raised our target price to SEK380 (340); 2) VEF portfolio company TransferGo raised USD10m in an up round; and 3) we have higher conviction in Kinnevik’s NAV, following recent strength in VC fundraising.

Fully valued near-term

We maintain a neutral sector stance, but see near-term setbacks and consider risks tilted to the downside near-term due to strong sector performance in the past month, while market interest rates have risen. We expect two years of zero NAV growth, on average, due to yield expansion, and the sector theme to be deleveraging, with limited capex. We see few potential company-specific catalysts, leaving share prices largely driven by macro factors. We consider the sector fully valued near-term, at an...

Industrivärden (Hold, TP: SEK380.00) - Stock-picking advised

Strong share price performances and dividends (from e.g. its Volvo holding) made Industrivärden a winner versus the SIXRX in Q1. We find the 6% discount to NAV unattractive, given its fully-replicable portfolio, and forecast 12-month forward NAV growth of 14%, due to our positive views on the Volvo, SHB and Essity holdings. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK380 (340), based on our updated NAV forecast. We believe investors are better off stock-picking among the indivi...