ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 04/30/2024

BHP's bid for Anglo American has confirmed interest from miners in copper in the context of increasingly challenged production and difficulties in fully completing projects. Anglo’s (Neutral) prospects in copper are now better valued and this is also the case for BHP (Neutral vs Underperform) although not so for Rio Tinto (Outperform vs Neutral). Downstream, Nexans and Montana Aerospace are our Top Picks (Outperform) vs Aurubis, Rexel and Prysmian (Neutral). - ...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 30/04/2024 Date Performance dep...

L’offre de BHP sur Anglo American a confirmé l’intérêt des minières pour le cuivre dans un contexte de tensions croissantes sur la production et de difficultés à faire aboutir les projets. Les perspectives d’Anglo (Neutre) dans le cuivre sont désormais mieux valorisées, c’est aussi le cas de BHP (Neutre vs Sous-performance) mais pas encore assez, selon nous, sur Rio Tinto (Surperformance vs Neutre). En aval, Nexans et Montana Aerospace sont nos valeurs préférées (Surperformance) vs Au...

Nokian Renkaat Oyj : Début d’année plus difficile que prévu

>Résultats inférieurs aux attentes mais guidance confirmée - Nokian Tyres a publié des résultats T1 2024 nettement inférieurs à nos attentes et celles du consensus avec un CA seulement stable à 237 M€ (consensus 265 M€) et un EBIT ajusté de -15 M€ (consensus +4 M€, ODDO BHF -3 M€), notamment pénalisé par des facteurs externes (grèves en Finlande, impacts Mer Rouge) qui ont davantage impacté sa production que ce que nous anticipions (impact CA de ~25 M€ au T1) et qui ...

Nokian Renkaat Oyj : A tougher start to the year than expected

>Earnings short of estimates but guidance confirmed - Nokian Tyres reported Q1 2024 earnings far below our estimates and those of the consensus with sales merely stable at € 237m (consensus € 265m and adjusted EBIT of -€ 15m (consensus +€ 4m, ODDO BHF -€ 3m), notably penalised by external factors (strikes in Finland, disruptions in the Red Sea) which have hit the group’s production harder than we expected (sales impact of ~€ 25m in Q1), and which should continue to af...

Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR9.00) - Soft Q1, with or without setbacks

The Q1 results were below our expectations, even after adjusting for the negatives on the group profit from the political strikes in Finland and the Red Sea conflict. On a positive note, the PCT price/mix was guided to hold up well, partly offsetting our revised lower sales expectations, while the Romanian factory appears to be ramping up on schedule. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to EUR9.0 (9.5), after lowering our 2024–2026e clean EBIT by c6% on average.

Upgrade or not to upgrade, that is the question

Sandvik AB: 1 director

A director at Sandvik AB bought 500,000 shares at 228.239SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/23/2024

In the run-up to the 2024 Summer Olympic Games and Euro 2024 football tournament, we have identified six stocks to favour: JCDecaux, Accor, Sodexo, adidas, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield and easyJet. While these two major sporting events are not expected to have a significant impact on the host economies in the medium term, the microeconomic and sectoral impacts should be more marked. The tourism, transport, beverages and consumer goods sectors are expected to be the main winners. Some med...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 23/04/2024

En amont des Jeux Olympiques d’été et de l’Euro de football 2024, nous identifions 6 valeurs à privilégier  : JCDecaux, Accor, Sodexo, adidas, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield et easyJet. Alors que ces deux évènements sportifs majeurs ne devraient pas avoir d’impact significatif sur les économies hôtes à moyen terme, les impacts microéconomiques et sectoriels devraient être plus marqués. Les secteurs du tourisme, des transports, des boissons et des biens de consommation devraient être les pr...

Sandvik (Hold, TP: SEK245.00) - Weakness expected but not flagged

Q1 was weak, but management commentary suggests the issues were both expected and temporary, and should recover through the year. We are still left with some concerns – particularly the margin weakness and why the temporary issues in SMR had not been communicated if they were anticipated. Early Q2 trading comments for SMM (stable compared to Q1) do not change our view of the short cycle in general or the division in particular. We have lowered our 2024–2026e underlying adj. EBITA by 2–3%, but po...

Sandvik : Un début d’année compliqué, mais qui semblait anticipé par l...

>T1 2024 : commandes et CA en recul de 5% en organique, marge en fort recul - Sandvik a publié hier, en journée, ses résultats T1 2024 (voir détails en page suivante).Les prises de commandes étaient en recul organique de 5% yoy (-6.5% attendu par le css) avec une demande stable sur des niveaux élevés dans le secteur minier et en baisse sur les infrastructures et le secteur industriel (avec des signaux tout de même positifs, voir ci-dessous). Le CA a reculé d...

Sandvik : A complicated start to the year, but it appears to have been...

>Q1 2024: orders and revenues down 5% on an organic basis, sharp contraction in the margin - Sandvik published its Q1 2024 results yesterday (see details overleaf).The order intake was down organically by 5% y-o-y (-6.5% expected by the consensus), with stable demand at high levels in the mining sector and contracting demand in the infrastructure and industrial sectors (though with some positive signals, see hereafter). Revenues were down 5% on an organic ba...

Getinge (Buy, TP: SEK255.00) - Upgraded to BUY after Q1 beat

Q1 earnings were stronger than we expected, with no negative surprises. We believe consensus for the coming years looks realistic and that Getinge’s valuation (despite the recent share price rise) looks attractive. Thus, we have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and have raised our target price to SEK255 (210).

ODDO : Favour Metso while waiting for the next cycle

We are initiating coverage of the mining equipment segment with Metso on Outperform, Sandvik on Neutral and Epiroc on Underperform. We have adopted a cautious scenario with demand stable or slightly up in the short term (mining business sales up +3% on average between 2024 and 2026), pending positive signals indicating a rebound in greenfield investments (not before 2027, in our view). In this scenario, we think that Metso should confirm the progress achieved in 2023 (margin impr...

ODDO : Privilégier Metso dans l’attente du prochain cycle

Nous initions le segment des équipementiers miniers avec Metso à Surperformance, Sandvik à Neutre et Epiroc à Sous-performance. Nous adoptons un scénario prudent avec une demande stable ou en légère hausse à court terme (CA des activités minières en hausse moyenne de 3% entre 2024 et 2026), dans l’attente de signaux positifs indiquant un rebond des investissements greenfield (pas avant 2027 selon nous). Dans ce scénario, nous estimons que Metso devrait confirmer les progrès réali...

Coloplast (Buy, TP: DKK1050.00) - Awaiting an acceleration in H2e

We forecast Q2 organic revenue growth of 7.6% YOY (in line with consensus), driven by the Chronic Care business segments, and an EBIT margin before special items of 27.6% (consensus 27.5%). We continue to expect QOQ improvements for the coming quarters. We expect the 2023/24 guidance to be unchanged for c8% organic revenue growth, and a 27–28% EBIT margin before special items. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to DKK1,050 (1,000).

Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR9.50) - Directionally better

For 2024, Nokian Tyres is set to see a boost in capacity, but most of the increase should stem from less-profitable contract manufacturing, leaving limited upside potential to consensus, in our view. For Q1, we expect reiterated 2024 guidance on slightly improved sell-in trends and an update on capacity expansion. We reiterate our HOLD but have nudged up our target price to EUR9.5 (9.0).

Sandvik (Hold, TP: SEK245.00) - Probably past the worst in SMM

We are roughly in line with consensus on Q1e and forecast broadly unchanged underlying markets QOQ. We expect comments on demand to remain solid for Mining and soft for Infrastructure, while early trading comments for daily order intake in Sandvik Manufacturing and Machining Solutions (SMM) for the first few weeks of Q2 are set to indicate it has been stable or improved slightly QOQ. We have raised our adj. EBITA 2–3% for 2024–2026e (on FX) and have raised our target price to SEK245 (225), but r...

Getinge (Hold, TP: SEK210.00) - More of the same

We expect Q1 revenues of cSEK7.7bn and an adj. EBITA margin of c9.8% – basically in line with consensus. Given the issues in Getinge, with packaging in ACT seemingly solved later than previously assumed, it is fair to assume the negative impact will continue into Q1 and Q2 at least. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK210 target price. The Q1 report is due at 08:00 CET on 22 April.