Light in the tunnel

A minor miss, guidance in line

Steps in the right direction

September sales: +6% comparable sales growth

Feedback from investor day

August sales: 0% comparable sales growth

July sales: 5.4% comparable sales growth

Current weakness creates a good entry point

Q2 results at first glance

Earnings growth yet to take off

June sales: +3.7% comparable sales growth

Comparable sales growth +3.5% in April

Kesko (Buy, TP: EUR21.50) - Steady progress

Q1 clean EBIT missed consensus by 3% on weaker GT, but we believe its margin concerns were well addressed, and improved hypermarket sales relative to the market point to an encouraging trend. After years of weakness, BTT profitability also expanded. We have made minor estimate changes (cut 2025–2027e clean EBIT by c2–0%) and raised our target price to EUR21.5 (20.5), due to our higher conviction on improved GT market-share momentum, which serves as a valuation trigger in the investment case, in ...

Building up for a solid year, reiterate BUY

Q1 results slightly below expectations

Stable earnings in a small quarter

Kesko (Buy, TP: EUR20.50) - Feeding stability

While Kesko’s share price has barely moved in the past six months due to soft market sentiment, we remain confident in the favourable risk/reward, based on: 1) cautiously improving end-markets, which we believe should drive continued earnings growth; 2) dominant market positions; 3) c50% exposure to defensive food retail; and 4) an attractive c5% 2025–2027e dividend yield. Given its expanding grocery network and controlled price cuts, we expect Kesko can stabilise its market share, potentially s...

March sales: +3.9% comparable sales growth

January sales: +1.5% comparable sales growth

Attractive entry: upgrade to BUY