Comparable sales growth +3.5% in April

Kesko (Buy, TP: EUR21.50) - Steady progress

Q1 clean EBIT missed consensus by 3% on weaker GT, but we believe its margin concerns were well addressed, and improved hypermarket sales relative to the market point to an encouraging trend. After years of weakness, BTT profitability also expanded. We have made minor estimate changes (cut 2025–2027e clean EBIT by c2–0%) and raised our target price to EUR21.5 (20.5), due to our higher conviction on improved GT market-share momentum, which serves as a valuation trigger in the investment case, in ...

Building up for a solid year, reiterate BUY

Q1 results slightly below expectations

Stable earnings in a small quarter

Kesko (Buy, TP: EUR20.50) - Feeding stability

While Kesko’s share price has barely moved in the past six months due to soft market sentiment, we remain confident in the favourable risk/reward, based on: 1) cautiously improving end-markets, which we believe should drive continued earnings growth; 2) dominant market positions; 3) c50% exposure to defensive food retail; and 4) an attractive c5% 2025–2027e dividend yield. Given its expanding grocery network and controlled price cuts, we expect Kesko can stabilise its market share, potentially s...

March sales: +3.9% comparable sales growth

January sales: +1.5% comparable sales growth

Attractive entry: upgrade to BUY

Kesko (Buy, TP: EUR20.50) - Slowly turning to a profit path

Despite a strong showing from Car Trade (CT), softness in Building and Technical Trade (BTT) led to Q4 results falling c3% shy of consensus clean EBIT, with the DPS also slightly below. However, the 2025 guidance was in line with expectations, and trading comments indicate momentum in BTT and a firm grasp on the Grocery Trade (GT) price programme and marketplace investments that should start paying off, albeit slowly, starting this year. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to...

Slightly below expectations but outlook in line

Q4 preview: an undramatic Q4

Kesko (Buy, TP: EUR21.00) - Testing the tides in 2025e

Our focus in the Q4 results (due at 07:00 CET on 5 February) will be on 2025 market outlook comments, group guidance, and the effect of the recently announced grocery price cuts. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to EUR21 (23), mostly due to lower profit margin assumptions for Grocery Trade.

December sales: +3.9% comparable sales growth

November sales: -2.4% comparable sales growth

October sales: +2% comparable sales growth

Modest earnings recovery in 2025e

Kesko (Buy, TP: EUR23.00) - Paradigm shift

Q3 earnings beat consensus across the board, primarily driven by growth in Building and Technical Trade (BTT) Finland profit, as we expected. Another highlight was the resilient Grocery Trade (GT) profit margin (flat YOY), further increasing our confidence in Kesko’s strategic execution in the segment. We reiterate our BUY, and have increased our target price to EUR23 (20), following c3% average increases to our 2025–2026e clean EPS. We continue to highlight the appealing 2024–2026e dividend yie...

A solid set of Q3 results

Q3 preview: soft sales and earnings pressure