Solid April, strong outlook

EU5 will be announced on 8 May

Kesko (Buy, TP: EUR21.50) - Steady progress

Q1 clean EBIT missed consensus by 3% on weaker GT, but we believe its margin concerns were well addressed, and improved hypermarket sales relative to the market point to an encouraging trend. After years of weakness, BTT profitability also expanded. We have made minor estimate changes (cut 2025–2027e clean EBIT by c2–0%) and raised our target price to EUR21.5 (20.5), due to our higher conviction on improved GT market-share momentum, which serves as a valuation trigger in the investment case, in ...

Q1 delivered, Q2 looks tougher

Building up for a solid year, reiterate BUY

Q1 above, Q2 likely worse

Beat on clean EBIT. Higher deliveries and production on paperboard.

Q1 results slightly below expectations

Paradox Interactive (Buy, TP: SEK240.00) - More releases ahead

We reiterate our BUY and SEK240 target price, having fine-tuned our forecast after the soft Q1 revenue due to few new releases. Looking ahead, we expect revenue and earnings growth to improve from new releases, and coupled with a more stable capex profile, we see healthy FCF growth for 2025e. Additionally, we believe Paradox is well positioned for rising shareholder distributions and more bolt-on M&A.

Earnings gain speed, valuation stuck in reverse

Minor miss, but overall solid, in a small quarter

Stable earnings in a small quarter

Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR5.00) - Excess pessimism

Reflecting escalating general macroeconomic uncertainty leading to softer packaging and board prices and FX headwinds (weaker USD and stronger SEK), we have reduced our 2025–2026e adj. EBITDA by close to 30%–20%. Despite these significant negative revisions, we still find the valuation multiples beyond the current year attractive, especially given Metsa Board’s favourable position in the board market and our belief that the balance sheet is under good control. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut ...

Kesko (Buy, TP: EUR20.50) - Feeding stability

While Kesko’s share price has barely moved in the past six months due to soft market sentiment, we remain confident in the favourable risk/reward, based on: 1) cautiously improving end-markets, which we believe should drive continued earnings growth; 2) dominant market positions; 3) c50% exposure to defensive food retail; and 4) an attractive c5% 2025–2027e dividend yield. Given its expanding grocery network and controlled price cuts, we expect Kesko can stabilise its market share, potentially s...

March sales: +3.9% comparable sales growth

Valuation now back at 5Y lows

Strong March, but some downside to cons

Paradox Interactive (Buy, TP: SEK240.00) - Sharp FX headwinds

We have lowered our 2025–2026e revenues by 10–12%, mainly reflecting the strong SEK. Our organic revenue growth assumptions are broadly unchanged, and the DLC bundles released in Q1 should drive strong cash flow and improved visibility for the rest of 2025. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK240 (260).

Two negatives and one positive

Q1 preview

Feb: Pulp shipments +0.3% y-o-y