Q1 clean EBIT missed consensus by 3% on weaker GT, but we believe its margin concerns were well addressed, and improved hypermarket sales relative to the market point to an encouraging trend. After years of weakness, BTT profitability also expanded. We have made minor estimate changes (cut 2025–2027e clean EBIT by c2–0%) and raised our target price to EUR21.5 (20.5), due to our higher conviction on improved GT market-share momentum, which serves as a valuation trigger in the investment case, in ...
We reiterate our BUY and SEK240 target price, having fine-tuned our forecast after the soft Q1 revenue due to few new releases. Looking ahead, we expect revenue and earnings growth to improve from new releases, and coupled with a more stable capex profile, we see healthy FCF growth for 2025e. Additionally, we believe Paradox is well positioned for rising shareholder distributions and more bolt-on M&A.
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