reports
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
The key takeaways from the past week are: 1) we raised our target price on VEF to SEK3.5 (3.4) and reiterated our BUY; 2) Kinnevik lowered the value of its unlisted portfolio by 5% QOQ in Q1 and proposed a SEK23/share cash distribution; and 3) Patricia Industries reported a strong Q1 in Johan Forssell’s last quarterly report as Investor’s CEO.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
Our key takeaways from the past week are: 1) we reiterated our HOLD on Industrivärden, but raised our target price to SEK380 (340); 2) VEF portfolio company TransferGo raised USD10m in an up round; and 3) we have higher conviction in Kinnevik’s NAV, following recent strength in VC fundraising.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
Our key takeaways from this week are: 1) Walgreens made a USD5.8bn impairment charge in its Q2 report related to its VillageMD holding; 2) Henrik Tjärnström joined the board of Creaspac; 3) we expect a neutral to slightly positive NAV trend in VEF’s Q1 report; and 4) Industrivärden is due to kick off the Q1 reporting season on 8 April.
- Linus Sigurdson
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
Our key takeaways from this week are: 1) we initiated regular coverage of VEF with a SEK3.4 target price, highlighting its structural growth and re-rating potential; 2) Kinnevik hosted an informative session about its software strategy; 3) VNV Global participated in Voi’s USD25m capital raise. The weekly navigator will be off next week and return the following week.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
Our key takeaways from this week are: 1) Kinnevik led a USD110m funding round in Mews, deploying USD41m; 2) VEF-owned Creditas looks set for profitable growth after achieving operating profitability in December; and 3) Investor-owned EQT hosted a CMD, and has seen YTD fund commitments of >EUR25bn ahead of a potentially improving IPO market.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
Our key takeaways from this week are: 1) Kinnevik agreed to divest its entire shareholding in Tele2 for a total consideration of SEK13bn, opening the way for potential shareholder distributions; and 2) following the Q4 reporting season, we prefer Investor (BUY) and Kinnevik (BUY), have a neutral view on Latour (HOLD), and regard Lundbergs (SELL) and Industrivärden (HOLD) as potential funding candidates.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
Our key takeaways from this week are: 1) we downgraded Lundbergs to SELL with an unchanged SEK485 target price following a change of analyst, and as we find the premium to NAV unwarranted in light of our forecast NAV decline in 2024; 2) VNV Global sold assets for up to USD58m, bringing it one step closer to funding its January 2025 bond; and 3) Bure grew its NAV by 33%, including dividends in 2023.
- Linus Sigurdson
Lundbergs (Sell, TP: SEK485.00) - A good time to crystalise gains
2023 has seen Lundbergs’ underlying portfolio benefit from investors seeking safe havens, while the OMXS Benchmark index inclusion has fuelled a premium to NAV valuation. In our view, this is more than reflected in the current share price, with negligible discount-on-discount effects from its Industrivärden holding, and we forecast a NAV decline in the listed portfolio of 3% in 2024. We have downgraded to SELL (HOLD), with an unchanged SEK485 target price following a change of analyst.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
Key takeaways from the past week: 1) we downgraded Latour to HOLD (BUY), with a new SEK280 (245) target price, as we find the near-term upside risk rather limited at a 36% premium to NAV going into a potentially tough 2024; 2) Lundbergs is set to report Q4 results next week following strong share price performance after the news of its inclusion in the Nasdaq OMXS Benchmark index.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
Key takeaways from the past week: 1) we downgraded Industrivärden to HOLD (BUY) with a new SEK340 (330) target price following TSR gains of 33% in 2023; 2) VEF released a research report on its Brazilian embedded finance company Gringo and the Brazilian driver ecosystem; and 3) Latour’s Q4 results are due on 12 February, where we see a less appealing risk/reward given a fairly high 45% premium to NAV.
- Linus Sigurdson
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
The key takeaways from this week are: 1) we upgraded Kinnevik to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to SEK145 (110), as we see the stock as a good way to get growth exposure in 2024; 2) we increased our target price for Investor to SEK260 (250), as we see a benign outlook for Patricia Industries; 3) VEF raised its NAV by 5% QOQ amid signals of improving sentiment for VC; and 4) VNV and Creades reported end-Q4 NAVs.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
The key takeaways from this week are: 1) VNV Global is looking for exit opportunities in 2024; 2) Kinnevik-owned cleantech company Aira raised SEK1.6bn in a series B round; 3) Latour continued to make acquisitions; and 4) Investor is set to kick off the Q4 earnings season at 08:15 CET on Friday, 19 January.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
The key takeaways from this week are: 1) we expect Kinnevik to raise the valuation of its unlisted portfolio by high-single digits in its Q4 results; 2) VEF could see some tailwinds in 2024; 3) Latour Industries made an acquisition; and 4) we are hosting an investor lunch with VNV Global’s CEO Per Brilioth at our Stockholm office next week. From Kinnevik’s Q4 pre-silent analyst call, we highlight: 1) we expect a high-single digit positive revaluation of its unlisted portfolio in its Q4 results, ...
- Joachim Gunell
The weekly navigator
The key takeaways from this week are: 1) Investor remains our sector top pick as we are nearing the end of 2023; and 2) Louise Lindh is set to become chair of Lundbergs Fastigheter. The weekly navigator will take a break over the holidays from next week, with the next edition due in mid-January.
- Joachim Gunell
- Joachim Gunell
- Joachim Gunell
The weekly navigator
The key takeaways from this week are: 1) Lundbergs is to be included in the OMX Stockholm Benchmark Index in December; 2) the market for European VCs continues to face headwinds; 3) Dagens industri puts Creades’ chairman Sven Hagströmer in the spotlight; and 4) Industrivärden buys 1m Volvo shares.
- Joachim Gunell
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