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Krisztian Karikas
  • Krisztian Karikas

Another outstanding year ahead?! – Model update and Q1 preview

Due to the transfer of coverage, we revisited our estimates for MTELEKOM. We reiterate our Buy recommendation with a 12-m ex-div TP of HUF 1,240, implying a 37% upside potential. MTELEKOM has reported a strong set of results for the full year of 2023 and gave a very impressive guidance for 2024. We expect revenues to increase 9.9% YoY, EBITDAaL will be up by 22.9% and the adj. net profit will arrive at HUF 131bn, resulting in 65.7% increase YoY. On the 16th of April, MTELEKOM approved a DPS of ...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: ING PW; SOLUTION AB; EME Macro/Strategy weekly; HUG PW; TE...

HEADLINES: • ING BSK: 1Q24 results softer than demanding market expectations, but our medium-term outlook confirmed NEGATIVE • Solutions by STC: mixed 1Q24 financial results NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (29 April-5 May) • Huuuge Games: April bookings estimate at USD 11m, down 21% mom NEGATIVE • Ten Square Games: April bookings estimate down 20% mom NEGATIVE • 11 bit studios: INDIKA release attracts very positive reviews on Steam, but low peak in number of players NEGATIVE • Cyf...

Gabor Bukta
  • Gabor Bukta

Massive payout after '23 and impressive guidance for '24

MTEL reported a strong set of results on Thursday noon, as they reported higher-thanexpected revenues and net profit for Q4 and the full year of 2023. MTEL proposed a DPSof HUF 44.7 and announced a SBB program of up to HUF 24bn. Adj. net profit is seen atHUF 130bn in 2024, well ahead of consensus, suggesting a total shareholderremuneration of HUF 91bn calculated at a 70% POR after 2024 earnings. Group revenues increased by 15.1% YoY in Q4/23 or 13.8% QoQ, driven by strong demandfor mobile data ...

Research Team
  • Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: February mostly green, despite det...

EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...

BRE MBANK SA
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
KRU KRUK S.A.
MOL MOL NYRT
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
AUG1L AGROWILL GROUP AB
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
BANK OF CYPRUS PCL
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
SNP PETROM S.A.
PBK PATRIA BANK SA
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
M MED LIFE
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NLBR NLB GROUP
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
KSPI KASPI KZ
HUGE HUUUGE
4IG 4IG NYRT
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
WPS W.A.G PAYMENT SOLUTIONS PLC
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
ONE KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
KLKIM ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
ADNOCDRILL KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
AROBS ADNOC DRILLING CO
7202 AROBS TRANSILVANIA SOFTWARE SA
ELPE ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
SHO HELLENIQ ENERGY
4071 SHOPER SA
BOROUGE ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
H2O BOROUGE
AQ HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
AQUILA PART PROD COM
Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: PPC GA; TL Macro; MTELEKOM HB; NLBR SV; KRU PW; HTO GA; CG...

HEADLINES: • Public Power Corporation: shifting into high gear (stays BUY) • Turkey macro: CBRT extends the cautious pause • Magyar Telekom: 4Q23 results review – EBITDA up 16% yoy, in line with the consensus; strong 2024E guidance POSITIVE • NLB Group: strong 4Q23 results and massive increase in 2023 dividends POSITIVE • Kruk: announces PLN 1,012m of 2023E net profit NEUTRAL • OTE: 4Q23 results review – solid quarter, with 2% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth; EUR 450m shareholders' payout guidance PO...

Research Team
  • Research Team
MOL MOL NYRT
CEZ CEZ AS ... (+10)

WOOD Daily: OPL PW; TPEIR GA; PL Macro; HU Macro; RO Macro; CZ Macro; ...

HEADLINES: • Orange Polska: 4Q23 results – EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, in line with the consensus NEGATIVE • Piraeus Bank: 4Q23 highlights and 2024-26E guidance • Poland macro: 2023 ends with near stagnant growth • Hungary macro: underwhelming 2023, but constructive signs for the new year • Romania macro: GDP to accelerate further, after a good 2023 • Czech Republic macro: GDP ends 2023 on a soft note • CEZ: committee recommends dropping Lex CEZ 2.0 NEUTRAL • Electrica: 4Q23 operational review shows s...

Research Team
  • Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Turkish stocks start the year with...

EME Equity Market – January 2024 Market performance – Turkey off to the races in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in the first month of the year. There was a V-shape recovery in the Turkish ISE30, with the index adding 12.6% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE and Hungarian BUX indices also reported strong performances, adding 5.7% and 5.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms. The Czech PX Index advanced by 2.2% mom, while the Romanian BET 0.9% mom in EUR...

BRE MBANK SA
GARAN TURKIYE GARANTI BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
KRU KRUK S.A.
MOL MOL NYRT
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
KRKG KRKA D.D.
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
2310 SAHARA INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
ETEL TELECOM EGYPT
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
SNP PETROM S.A.
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
WPS W.A.G PAYMENT SOLUTIONS PLC
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
ADNOCDRILL ADNOC DRILLING CO
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
4071 ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
7203 ELM CO
AQ AQUILA PART PROD COM
Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: OPL PW; LOGO TI; MTELEKOM HB; MBR PW; 11B PW; ALARABIA AB;...

HEADLINES: • Orange Polska: safe dividend haven (stays BUY) • Logo Yazilim: recent newsflow supportive of our investment case • Magyar Telekom: to implement annual inflation-based fee adjustment as of 1 March 2024 POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: Municipal Appeals Board suspends execution of recent decision regarding increased fees NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: Frostpunk 2 gameplay trailer released; game to be available on PC Game Pass NEUTRAL • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: announces new contract in Dubai P...

Research Team
  • Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Poland – strongest performer in De...

EME Equity Market – December 2023 Market performance – Poland outperforms in December. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 1.9% mom in USD in December. The WIG20 Index continues to perform well in the post-elections environment and reported the strongest performance in our core region, adding 5.9% mom in EUR terms. There was also a strong performance from the Romanian BET and Hungarian BUX indices, adding 4.4% and 4.1% mom, respectively, in EUR terms; while there was a relat...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: CZG CP; ESLT US; EL RO; TEL RO; MTELEKOM HB; MOH GA; MYTIL...

HEADLINES: • Colt CZ Group SE: to acquire ammunition producer Sellier & Bellot POSITIVE • Elbit Systems: awarded multiple contracts from Israeli MoD POSITIVE • Electrica/Transelectrica: proposed 2024 tariffs in line with the guidance from the regulator • Magyar Telekom: reaches agreement with trade unions NEUTRAL • Motor Oil Hellas: awarded EU grant for carbon capture project • Mytilineos/Titan Cement: coverage UNDER REVIEW • Short News (FP)

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: TXT PW; ETEL EY; ELPE GA; WPL PW; WOOD's Winter Wonderland...

HEADLINES: • Text: 2Q23-24 (calendar 3Q23) preliminary results - EBITDA up 10% yoy, 3% below our estimate NEGATIVE • Telecom Egypt: publishes 2024E guidance - mid double-digit top-line growth expected POSITIVE • HELLENiQ Energy: joint venture ELPEDISON testing market for LNG project • Wirtualna Polska: real users in November 2023 NEGATIVE • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2023: postcards from Prague • Magyar Telekom: postcard from Prague • Dino: postcard from Prague • Eurocash: postc...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: CIMSA TI; MTELEKOM HB; TEN PW; EME Macro/Strategy – CIS pl...

HEADLINES: • Cimsa: sustainable growth, with a global view (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Magyar Telekom: fastest-growing EMEA telecom (stays BUY) • Ten Square Games: improved short-term outlook, but long-term challenges (stays HOLD) • EME Macro/Strategy: CIS plus - top growth in our markets, again • 4iG: 3Q23 review - solid results, with 32% yoy pro-forma EBITDA growth NEUTRAL • Duna House: 3Q23 - doubles down on Italy with the Professione Casa acquisition NEUTRAL • AUGA Group: 3Q23 - wor...

Atinc Ozkan ... (+3)
  • Atinc Ozkan
  • Piotr Raciborski
  • CFA

Magyar Telekom: fastest-growing EMEA telecom (stays BUY)

We reiterate our BUY rating on Magyar Telekom (MTELEKOM) and raise our price target (PT) to HUF 969/share (from HUF 546), implying 61% upside potential. We see MTELEKOM as an outstanding growth story in the telecoms space, with an expected 2022-25E EBITDA CAGR of 15%, the highest growth in EMEA, apart from Turkey, which is facing hyperinflation. In our view, the growth generated by MTELEKOM should be driven by: 1) CPI-linked price hikes; 2) customer base expansion; and 3) the abolition of the sp...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: MOH GA; OPAP GA; FOYRK GA; PGE PW; TEN PW; WPL PW; HU Macr...

HEADLINES: • Motor Oil Hellas: 3Q23 results - stronger than expectations • OPAP: 3Q23 results and FY23 guidance slightly below expectations NEGATIVE • Fourlis: 3Q23 review - slightly weaker quarter, on soft Intersport results NEGATIVE • PGE: 3Q23 results in line with preliminary figures • Ten Square Games: earnings call takeaways - no major surprises, no detailed targets for 2024E NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: key takeaways from the 3Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • Hungary macro: MNB moves ahead wi...

Gellert Gaal
  • Gellert Gaal

Record quarterly profit, but focus on adjusted profit, its even better...

MTEL’s Q3 EBITDA and net profit arrived to HUF 22.9 bn (+34% y-o-y) and HUF 80.4 bn (+23% y-o-y) vs. the consensus of HUF 22.8 bn and HUF 79 bn respectively. Even though EBITDA dynamic was extremely strong, this growth did entirely materialize on the bottom-line because of the revaluation losses MTEL suffered in financial derivatives in an extent of HUF 7bn. We would like to stress that this amount is not realized losses and is expected to reverse. Adjusted profit which cleans profit from that n...

Research Team
  • Research Team
MOL MOL NYRT
CEZ CEZ AS ... (+22)

WOOD Daily: TKNSA TI; OTP HB; BHW PW; EUR PW; DOAS TI; ULKER TI; SOKM ...

HEADLINES: • Teknosa: good things come in small packages (BUY - initiation of coverage) • OTP Bank: beats expectations with 3Q23 delivery • Bank Handlowy: solid 3Q23, DPS feasible and attractive, still a reason to own the stock NEUTRAL • Eurocash: 3Q23 beat on costs POSITIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: strong bottom-line beat in 3Q23 POSITIVE • Ulker: 3Q23 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Sok Marketler Ticaret: 3Q23 in line operationally, strong bottom-line beat on deferred tax income NEUTRAL • Public P...

Research Team
  • Research Team
KRU KRUK S.A.
CEZ CEZ AS ... (+17)

WOOD Morning (9 November 2023)

HEADLINES: • Kruk: 3Q23 - books another strong quarter • PKO BP: solid 3Q23, announces another attempt to pay 2022 DPS, books 25%+ headline ROE • CEZ: 3Q23 a solid beat; adjusted net profit guidance unchanged, at CZK 33-37bn POSITIVE • InPost: 3Q23 beat on stronger international operations; breakeven in UK; strong start to 4Q POSITIVE • Pegasus Airlines: 3Q23 - another strong summer, guidance maintained NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: 3Q23 results review - soft numbers, in line with expectations NEU...

Gellert Gaal
  • Gellert Gaal

The true potential

We adjust our model with the recent development, namely the better-than-expected results (+23% / +41% / +40% for ‘23/’24/’25) and withdrawal of utility tax – we had expected that the extra profit tax would be revoked in 2025. As a result, we increase our TP significantly to 950 HUF/share. As a sanity check to our target price, please use DDM model and assume a DPS of ca. HUF 110 (total distribution) as perpetuity, then discount it back to 2023. Thanks to the better underlying, we forecas...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: PCO PW; CEZ CP; AROBS RO; PL Banks; BOROUGE UH; BDX PW; CC...

HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: plunge overdone (stays BUY) • CEZ: PM Fiala says no minority squeeze out, nationalisation in the pipeline NEGATIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: takeaways from the capital markets day • Polish banks: to face potential extension of credit holidays NEUTRAL • Borouge: 3Q23E results preview (due on 30 October) • Budimex: 3Q23E EBITDA up slightly yoy, despite demanding comparison base (due on 30 October) • Coca-Cola Icecek: 3Q23E earnings preview (due 31 October) • Mig...

Research Team
  • Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: only Romania and Turkey in the bla...

EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).

BRE MBANK SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
MOL MOL NYRT
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
OMV OMV AG
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
FOYRK FOURLIS HOLDINGS S.A.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
GTC GLOBE TRADE CENTRE S.A.
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
AUG1L AGROWILL GROUP AB
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
DAT DATAWALK SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNP PETROM S.A.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
NLBR NLB GROUP
SF3 STS GROUP AG
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
DUNAHOUSE DUNA HOUSE
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
WINE PURCARI WINERIES PCL
WPS W.A.G PAYMENT SOLUTIONS PLC
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
CTPNV CTP NV
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
GPP GRUPA PRACUJ DA
KLKIM KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
AROBS AROBS TRANSILVANIA SOFTWARE SA
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
9526 JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
SHO SHOPER SA
4071 ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
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