Renovation rules now a reality

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to incorporate the provisions into their national legislation. While Q1 is Nordic construction’s low season due to winter effects, we see some downside risk to Q1e consensus and longer-term to 2024–2026e EBIT on lower development gains. We recommend a stock-picking approa...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Q1 was cold

With a harsh Nordic winter and Easter falling in Q1, we expect a larger seasonal loss than consensus (results due at c07:00 CET on 3 May). We expect NCC to record one commercial property divestment of SEK530m, but due the level of announced orders, we have reduced our 2024–2026e revenue and EPS and expect Q1 order intake below Infront consensus. We reiterate our BUY and NOK150 target price.

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Tax-driven EPS beat

Q4 EPS was above our forecast and Infront consensus despite falling short on EBIT, as tax reversals from divestments lifted the bottom line. EBIT suffered from higher-than-expected losses in “Other and elimination”, partially driven by IT projects. Following a marginally higher than expected group-level order backlog, and comments on the seasonally high “Other and elimination”, we have raised our 2023–2026e EPS by a c1–3%. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK150 (140).

Sweco AB - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances

Summary Marketline's Sweco AB Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments report includes business description, detailed reports on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestments, capital raisings, venture capital investments, ownership and partnership transactions undertaken by Sweco AB - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances since January2007. Marketline's Company Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments reports offer a c...

Renovation regulation approaching

The ‘trilogue’ process regarding the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) that aims to double renovation rates of commercial and residential properties has been concluded, and the new legislative text is due to be published in spring 2024. Also, the recent pivot in market interest rates has improved the sector outlook, but with long profit lead times. Names with high short interest (JM and SBO) have rallied the recently, but we believe the current valuation underestimates the profit ...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK140.00) - Divisional figures in focus

We are broadly in line with consensus ahead of the Q4 results (due at c08:00 CET on 30 January). However, after a suboptimal divisional mix in Q3, where ‘Other and Eliminations’ offset weakness elsewhere, we will focus on the divisional split. The stock continues to trade below peers on 2024–2026e P/E despite low divestment profits expected in Property Development. We have rolled forward our valuation to 2024-26e and raised our target price to SEK140 (135), and reiterate our BUY.

Political agreement for EPBD

Yesterday evening saw a political agreement and the conclusion of the final trilogue meeting on EPBD revisions. There are some revisions to earlier drafts, but EU member states will now prepare requirements for lower energy building stocks. We believe that once in place this regulation should be a positive for construction companies, but CAPEX for real estate companies.

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK135.00) - No market-moving news

NCC hosted a CMD on 9. November, with its financial targets unchanged, although it made its previous 2023 EPS ambition of SEK16 a “short- to medium-term” target. The company also said it plans to launch a new division for the green transition from 2024. The rest of the CMD provided a general update on its operations. We have made no forecast changes, and reiterate our BUY and SEK135 target price, as we still see NCC’s valuation as attractive.

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK135.00) - Mixed Q3, but scope for disposals

Overall, the Q3 results were in line with our estimates but beat consensus; however, the divisional mix was sub-optimal, with ‘Other and Eliminations’ offsetting weakness in other divisions. Order intake was lower than we expected, but with SEK4.9bn in completed commercial developments, we await news on divestments, albeit noting ‘muted’ management comments on the webcast. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK135 (140) after factoring in our estimate changes and peer multiple...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK140.00) - Strong name in challenged sector

We are 5% above consensus on Q3e revenues and 4% above on EBIT (results due at c07:00 CET on 31 October). While we have somewhat cut our order backlog expectations, especially in Infrastructure, we find the valuation attractive, and believe dividend capacity will increase over the next two years. We reiterate our BUY and SEK140 target price.

Catena AB - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances

Summary Marketline's Catena AB Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments report includes business description, detailed reports on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestments, capital raisings, venture capital investments, ownership and partnership transactions undertaken by Catena AB - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances since January2007. Marketline's Company Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments reports offer a...

Bright spots few and far between

With only three BUYs, we consider bright spots in the sector – just as residential newbuild and commercial development sales in today’s market – few and far between. New housing sales and commercial property markets have been hit by rising interest rates, and the EU’s Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) – which holds potential upside – has been delayed. We still prefer stocks with no (or limited) pure residential exposure; our top picks in construction are Skanska and NCC, but, desp...

NCC AB: 1 director

A director at NCC AB bought 1,498 shares at 113.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 65/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showin...

Sweco AB - Strategy, SWOT and Corporate Finance Report

Summary Sweco AB - Strategy, SWOT and Corporate Finance Report, is a source of comprehensive company data and information. The report covers the company's structure, operation, SWOT analysis, product and service offerings and corporate actions, providing a 360˚ view of the company. Key Highlights Sweco AB (Sweco) is a provider of consulting engineering and design services. It offers a range of services such as architecture and urban planning, building service systems, civil engineering, indus...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK140.00) - Margin-driven beat in Q2

The Q2 results beat our estimates and Infront consensus across the board, fuelled by a faster EBIT margin recovery than expected. Management reiterated its SEK16 EPS target for 2023, while adding that it could take longer to reach. Our 2023–2025 EPS forecasts (and consensus) remain well below SEK16; however, we find the underlying margin trend and valuation attractive and reiterate our BUY, while we have raised our target price to SEK140 (130) after increasing our forecasts.

Northern Lights

Building trouble in the private sector

The building outlook remains grim, with very weak new private housing sales and a tough commercial property market. However, the overall picture is eased slightly by support from the public sector and civil engineering, and a likely renovation wave from the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD). However, we still prefer stocks with no (or limited) pure residential exposure, and retain our neutral sector stance. Veidekke and Skanska are our preferred picks in construction, but we expec...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - EBIT-margin stability in focus

NCC’s EBIT-margin recovery has seen some hiccups, and most recently Q1 underlying margins were weaker than weexpected, though this was offset by transaction gains. Thus, our focus is on the underlying margins for its construction operations in Q2. Although we are just (broadly) in line with consensus on Q2e and longer-term, we believe Q2e results in line with our forecasts would improve investor confidence and boost the share price. We reiterate our BUY and SEK130 target price.

Northern Lights

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - Q1 beat

A bigger gain from the development sold in the Property Development (PD) segment explained 54.5% of the Q1 beat in EBIT, with the rest from lower than expected seasonal losses in Infra and Industry (asphalt), which combined turned the group’s typical seasonal Q1 losses into a gain. However, both building divisions (Sweden and Nordics) reported EBIT margins below expectations, affected by rising costs and project losses. Q1 order intake was 12% above our forecast and 7% above Infront, but the ord...