Industry margins save the day

Limited pre-announced orders

NCC AB: 5 directors

Two Directors at NCC AB bought 2,178 shares at 190.874SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 58/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showin...

Catena AB - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances

Summary Marketline's Catena AB Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments report includes business description, detailed reports on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestments, capital raisings, venture capital investments, ownership and partnership transactions undertaken by Catena AB - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances since January2007. Marketline's Company Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments reports offer a...

Ready to grow through M&A

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK210.00) - Slightly larger seasonal losses

The divisional figures were broadly in line, and as usual, Q1 was a seasonal loss due to winter effects in NCC Industry (asphalt operations). EBIT was SEK-170m (14% below our estimate, 10% below Infront consensus). However, given the low season, the Q1 miss had a limited effect – a c1% hit to full-year EPS. We reiterate our BUY and highlight our view that ongoing sold and initiated property developments are likely to drive positive EPS momentum to 2028, but have cut our target price to SEK210 (2...

Undramatic quarter

Another cash flow-intensive year

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK220.00) - Target price raised on project gains

Having started and sold another commercial development, with an expected 2027 delivery, we have raised our 2027e EPS by c8%. Given NCC’s project development planned for 2027–2028e, we believe the stock offers an attractive EPS growth profile. However, similar to peers, Q1 is likely to be a loss-making quarter due to Nordic winter effects. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK220 (200).

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK200.00) - Values expected to materialise

While the Q4 commercial real estate sale in Gothenburg increased EBIT YOY, and reduced NIBD to SEK1.2bn (cSEK6bn in Q3), earnings missed expectations due to SEK250m in project write-downs. However, the 2024 DPS of SEK11 was higher than we expected. With the Q4 results, NCC also announced a strategic review of its Industry division. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK200 (190).

What a way to end to 2024!

Cash is flowing in

Wide peer valuation range on market recovery expectations

Various waves of expectations for a recovery in newbuild markets have led to volatility in the sector, but an upwards share-price trend overall. Although we still await proof the new-volume market (both residential and commercial) is recovering, consensus is fuelled by falling rates. However, trailing profits under IFRS valuations are record-wide. We maintain a neutral sector view and stock-picking approach.

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Two divestments for SEK5.8bn

NCC recently announced two divestments of commercial real estate developments for SEK5.8bn, of which SEK2.2bn will be recorded in Q4 2024 and SEK3.6bn in Q2 2028e when the development is delivered to the client. Hence, we have raised our 2024e EPS by c14.5% (and are above consensus for Q4e). We reiterate our BUY and SEK190 target price.

Signs of a thawing transaction market

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Divestments a key potential catalyst

Q3 EBIT was above our estimate and consensus, mainly driven by ‘Other and Eliminations’. However, EPS was broadly in line, due to rising financing costs, with interest costs on the seven completed but unsold commercial developments not capitalised. With SEK10.2bn of capital employed in development projects (total), selling these assets remains a key potential catalyst, in our view. We reiterate our BUY and SEK190 target price.

Low-quality beat, solid order intake

Time to realise the project portfolio

KPIs and profits reflect cycle-lows

While the sector has rallied on expectations of a recovery in Nordic CRE and residential starts, there are no signs of an actual recovery yet. With our base case still for a gradual sales recovery in 2026, our longer-term estimates remain below consensus, reflecting slow profit-recognition under IFRS – the latter also underlies our expectation of declining revenues and EBIT YOY in Q3 for several names we cover. Our sector top picks are still Skanska, NCC and Veidekke, while we see downside risk ...