Signs of a thawing transaction market

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Divestments a key potential catalyst

Q3 EBIT was above our estimate and consensus, mainly driven by ‘Other and Eliminations’. However, EPS was broadly in line, due to rising financing costs, with interest costs on the seven completed but unsold commercial developments not capitalised. With SEK10.2bn of capital employed in development projects (total), selling these assets remains a key potential catalyst, in our view. We reiterate our BUY and SEK190 target price.

Low-quality beat, solid order intake

Time to realise the project portfolio

KPIs and profits reflect cycle-lows

While the sector has rallied on expectations of a recovery in Nordic CRE and residential starts, there are no signs of an actual recovery yet. With our base case still for a gradual sales recovery in 2026, our longer-term estimates remain below consensus, reflecting slow profit-recognition under IFRS – the latter also underlies our expectation of declining revenues and EBIT YOY in Q3 for several names we cover. Our sector top picks are still Skanska, NCC and Veidekke, while we see downside risk ...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Well above consensus on Q3e order intake

We are broadly in line with Infront consensus on Q3e revenue (+1%) and EBIT (+2%), but after updating for announced orders, we are now c27% above on order intake for the quarter (the Q3 results are due at c07:00 CET on 25 October). In turn, we have raised our 2025–2026e revenue and EPS by c2%, and our target price to SEK190 (175), also factoring in higher peer multiples. We reiterate our BUY

NCC AB: 1 director

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Sweco AB - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances

Summary Marketline's Sweco AB Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments report includes business description, detailed reports on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestments, capital raisings, venture capital investments, ownership and partnership transactions undertaken by Sweco AB - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances since January2007. Marketline's Company Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments reports offer a c...

Sweco AB - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis

Summary Sweco AB - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis, is a source of comprehensive company data and information. The report covers the company's structure, operation, SWOT analysis, product and service offerings and corporate actions, providing a 360˚ view of the company. Key Highlights Sweco AB (Sweco) is a provider of consulting engineering and design services. It offers a range of services such as architecture and urban planning, building service systems, civil engineering, industrial engi...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK175.00) - Q2 beat, divestments next

Q2 EBIT and EPS were above our forecasts, driven by Industry. Despite still-challenging property transaction markets, NCC intends to divest commercial developments "this Autumn", which we expect to result in capital releases and gains, making it possible to reach the EPS target of SEK16. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK175 (150).

Solid from Industry

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Attractive on low-cycle estimates

We believe the stock screens attractively, even with our limited Property Development EBIT forecasts. We are below consensus on Q2e EBIT, due to a higher expected loss in the volatile Other/admin segment, and order intake. Despite our lower-than-consensus estimates, we reiterate our BUY and SEK150 target price, based on an attractive valuation and our long-term growth expectations.

Expectations running ahead

We continue to see upside potential for diversified construction (Skanska, NCC and Veidekke), but downside risk for residential developers (YIT, JM, Peab and Selvaag Bolig) that have rallied on improving market expectations while new housing sales remains lacklustre. We await the adaptation of the recently EU-approved Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD). We see a mixed picture for EPS ahead of the Q2 reporting season. We keep a neutral sector view, and still recommend a stock-pickin...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Q1 in line with our expectations

Q1 is low season for NCC, but we believe the EBIT miss versus Infront consensus was likely due to some consensus participants overlooking the early Easter effect. With the Q1 results broadly in line with our estimates, we have made only minor forecast changes, and reiterate our BUY and SEK150 target price.

Miss in seasonally slow quarter

Renovation rules now a reality

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to incorporate the provisions into their national legislation. While Q1 is Nordic construction’s low season due to winter effects, we see some downside risk to Q1e consensus and longer-term to 2024–2026e EBIT on lower development gains. We recommend a stock-picking approa...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Q1 was cold

With a harsh Nordic winter and Easter falling in Q1, we expect a larger seasonal loss than consensus (results due at c07:00 CET on 3 May). We expect NCC to record one commercial property divestment of SEK530m, but due the level of announced orders, we have reduced our 2024–2026e revenue and EPS and expect Q1 order intake below Infront consensus. We reiterate our BUY and NOK150 target price.

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Tax-driven EPS beat

Q4 EPS was above our forecast and Infront consensus despite falling short on EBIT, as tax reversals from divestments lifted the bottom line. EBIT suffered from higher-than-expected losses in “Other and elimination”, partially driven by IT projects. Following a marginally higher than expected group-level order backlog, and comments on the seasonally high “Other and elimination”, we have raised our 2023–2026e EPS by a c1–3%. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK150 (140).

Renovation regulation approaching

The ‘trilogue’ process regarding the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) that aims to double renovation rates of commercial and residential properties has been concluded, and the new legislative text is due to be published in spring 2024. Also, the recent pivot in market interest rates has improved the sector outlook, but with long profit lead times. Names with high short interest (JM and SBO) have rallied the recently, but we believe the current valuation underestimates the profit ...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK140.00) - Divisional figures in focus

We are broadly in line with consensus ahead of the Q4 results (due at c08:00 CET on 30 January). However, after a suboptimal divisional mix in Q3, where ‘Other and Eliminations’ offset weakness elsewhere, we will focus on the divisional split. The stock continues to trade below peers on 2024–2026e P/E despite low divestment profits expected in Property Development. We have rolled forward our valuation to 2024-26e and raised our target price to SEK140 (135), and reiterate our BUY.