Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK220.00) - Target price raised on project gains

Having started and sold another commercial development, with an expected 2027 delivery, we have raised our 2027e EPS by c8%. Given NCC’s project development planned for 2027–2028e, we believe the stock offers an attractive EPS growth profile. However, similar to peers, Q1 is likely to be a loss-making quarter due to Nordic winter effects. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK220 (200).

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK200.00) - Values expected to materialise

While the Q4 commercial real estate sale in Gothenburg increased EBIT YOY, and reduced NIBD to SEK1.2bn (cSEK6bn in Q3), earnings missed expectations due to SEK250m in project write-downs. However, the 2024 DPS of SEK11 was higher than we expected. With the Q4 results, NCC also announced a strategic review of its Industry division. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK200 (190).

What a way to end to 2024!

Cash is flowing in

Wide peer valuation range on market recovery expectations

Various waves of expectations for a recovery in newbuild markets have led to volatility in the sector, but an upwards share-price trend overall. Although we still await proof the new-volume market (both residential and commercial) is recovering, consensus is fuelled by falling rates. However, trailing profits under IFRS valuations are record-wide. We maintain a neutral sector view and stock-picking approach.

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Two divestments for SEK5.8bn

NCC recently announced two divestments of commercial real estate developments for SEK5.8bn, of which SEK2.2bn will be recorded in Q4 2024 and SEK3.6bn in Q2 2028e when the development is delivered to the client. Hence, we have raised our 2024e EPS by c14.5% (and are above consensus for Q4e). We reiterate our BUY and SEK190 target price.

NCC AB: 1 director

A director at NCC AB sold 30,000 shares at 160.289SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 74/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing...

Signs of a thawing transaction market

Catena AB - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances

Summary Marketline's Catena AB Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments report includes business description, detailed reports on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestments, capital raisings, venture capital investments, ownership and partnership transactions undertaken by Catena AB - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances since January2007. Marketline's Company Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments reports offer a...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Divestments a key potential catalyst

Q3 EBIT was above our estimate and consensus, mainly driven by ‘Other and Eliminations’. However, EPS was broadly in line, due to rising financing costs, with interest costs on the seven completed but unsold commercial developments not capitalised. With SEK10.2bn of capital employed in development projects (total), selling these assets remains a key potential catalyst, in our view. We reiterate our BUY and SEK190 target price.

Low-quality beat, solid order intake

Time to realise the project portfolio

KPIs and profits reflect cycle-lows

While the sector has rallied on expectations of a recovery in Nordic CRE and residential starts, there are no signs of an actual recovery yet. With our base case still for a gradual sales recovery in 2026, our longer-term estimates remain below consensus, reflecting slow profit-recognition under IFRS – the latter also underlies our expectation of declining revenues and EBIT YOY in Q3 for several names we cover. Our sector top picks are still Skanska, NCC and Veidekke, while we see downside risk ...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Well above consensus on Q3e order intake

We are broadly in line with Infront consensus on Q3e revenue (+1%) and EBIT (+2%), but after updating for announced orders, we are now c27% above on order intake for the quarter (the Q3 results are due at c07:00 CET on 25 October). In turn, we have raised our 2025–2026e revenue and EPS by c2%, and our target price to SEK190 (175), also factoring in higher peer multiples. We reiterate our BUY

Sweco AB - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis

Summary Sweco AB - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis, is a source of comprehensive company data and information. The report covers the company's structure, operation, SWOT analysis, product and service offerings and corporate actions, providing a 360˚ view of the company. Key Highlights Sweco AB (Sweco) is a provider of consulting engineering and design services. It offers a range of services such as architecture and urban planning, building service systems, civil engineering, industrial engi...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK175.00) - Q2 beat, divestments next

Q2 EBIT and EPS were above our forecasts, driven by Industry. Despite still-challenging property transaction markets, NCC intends to divest commercial developments "this Autumn", which we expect to result in capital releases and gains, making it possible to reach the EPS target of SEK16. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK175 (150).

Solid from Industry

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Attractive on low-cycle estimates

We believe the stock screens attractively, even with our limited Property Development EBIT forecasts. We are below consensus on Q2e EBIT, due to a higher expected loss in the volatile Other/admin segment, and order intake. Despite our lower-than-consensus estimates, we reiterate our BUY and SEK150 target price, based on an attractive valuation and our long-term growth expectations.

Expectations running ahead

We continue to see upside potential for diversified construction (Skanska, NCC and Veidekke), but downside risk for residential developers (YIT, JM, Peab and Selvaag Bolig) that have rallied on improving market expectations while new housing sales remains lacklustre. We await the adaptation of the recently EU-approved Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD). We see a mixed picture for EPS ahead of the Q2 reporting season. We keep a neutral sector view, and still recommend a stock-pickin...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Q1 in line with our expectations

Q1 is low season for NCC, but we believe the EBIT miss versus Infront consensus was likely due to some consensus participants overlooking the early Easter effect. With the Q1 results broadly in line with our estimates, we have made only minor forecast changes, and reiterate our BUY and SEK150 target price.