We found the Q4 results lacklustre, with a c13% ROE, down from >17% in the previous 2024 quarters due to lower rates and AirPlus. We estimate that SEB’s ROE will be stuck well below the 15% target throughout or forecast period, and think consensus capital distributions are too high. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–4% and our target price to SEK170 (176), but reiterate our HOLD.
Let the yield lead the way In advance of the Q4 results, we see the best risk/reward in Handelsbanken and less attractive risk/reward in SEB, partly due to our expectations of dividend proposals versus consensus. We have made mostly modest adjustments to our estimates and target prices ahead of the Q4 results. Despite some multiples expansion in Q4, we still see attractive value in the sector, with solid valuation support at a 2025e sector P/E below 10x. We continue to see the capital returns as...
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