Q1 previews

While we believe the banks are past the NII peak, we forecast healthy and stable ROEs (c16% on average) in Q1, backed by rising commissions, good cost control and low loan losses. We still see attractive shareholder return potential in the sector, underpinned by robust earnings, attractive valuations (2025e average P/E 10% in 2024–2026e. We reiterate our positive sector view and BUYs on all four banks, with c30% average upside to our target prices. SHB remains our sector top pick.

Unveiling alpha

Our analysis concludes that adverse FX and valuation multiples trends have masked the banks’ superior underlying shareholder value creation versus other Swedish large caps in the past decade. Our scenario analysis, based on extrapolated underlying earnings, indicates 5%-points potential alpha per year versus the OMXS30 in the next 10 years, with further upside potential should banks’ valuation discounts narrow to historical levels. We prefer banks that can achieve balanced profitable growth to g...

Nordea Bank AB - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliance...

Summary Marketline's Nordea Bank AB Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments report includes business description, detailed reports on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestments, capital raisings, venture capital investments, ownership and partnership transactions undertaken by Nordea Bank AB - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances since January2007. Marketline's Company Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments repor...

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB): 2 directors

Two Directors at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) sold/sold after exercising options 34,897 shares at between 150.750SEK and 150.799SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 63/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discre...

SEB (Buy, TP: SEK171.00) - Acting on its capital pledge

The higher capital distributions presented in the Q4 report underpinned that SEB is committed to its capital target for 2024. We expect a further acceleration in capital distributions for a 2024e total yield of c14%. We have raised our 2024–2025e EPS by c2% and our target price to SEK171 (168), and reiterate our BUY. Adjusted for the 2023 proposed DPS, the shares trade at a 2024e P/E of c8x, which we view as attractive given SEB’s long-term dedication to profitable growth at low risk.

Some dividends now, set for more later

We expect NII trends to have turned negative in Q4, and have cut our 2024-2025e EPS by an average c3% on the lowered interest rate outlook. Despite this, we still see attractive value in the sector, with solid valuation support at a 2024e sector P/E below 8x and attractive capital return potential, where we forecast one-third of sector market cap to be distributed in around two years. We reiterate our BUYs on all banks. In the Q4 results, we expect our sector top pick SHB to propose a 2023 DPS e...

SEB (Buy, TP: SEK170.00) - A luxury concern

SEB’s elevated c20% Q3 ROE and absence of credit growth indicate that capital generation is stronger than its SEK1.25bn quarterly buyback pace suggests. Despite what some investors may view as slow capital distribution, we remain confident in the bank’s (reiterated) ambition to shift out all excess capital by year-end 2024. Our 2024–2025e EPS is broadly intact, and we reiterate our BUY and SEK170 target price.

Northern Lights

SEB (Buy, TP: SEK162.00) - Full steam but keeping cool

SEB further improved its ROE in Q2, with revenues surpassing SEK20bn for the first time ever in a quarter, as rate hikes continued to drive NII higher. On what we view as rather conservative assumptions for 2024–2025, we are 3–10% above consensus on PTP and forecast SEB to generate a ~15% ROE, hence we deem the current P/BV too low. Our earnings forecasts are largely intact, and we reiterate our BUY and SEK162 target price.

Swedish banks Q2 previews - Continued NII momentum

We expect the robust trends seen in recent quarters to have continued in Q2, with sustained strong credit quality and NII tailwinds from higher rates. We have raised our 2023–2025e EPS by 0–3% and our target price to SEK138 (137), and reiterate our BUY.

Q2 previews - Continued NII momentum

Swedish Banks (, ) - Continued NII momentum (12 pages)

NII set to decline (but that’s ok)

We expect Nordea to continue to build on favourable trends from recent quarters, with raised NII and robust asset quality driving it to its highest underlying profitability since before the 2008–2009 financial crisis. We believe the NII growth will abate and eventually reverse in the next few quarters, but given higher normalised interest rates coupled with a diversified asset base and strong cost control, Nordea seems on track to becoming a steady ≥15% ROE generator. We have cut our 2024–2025e ...

SEB (Buy, TP: SEK160.00) - Thriving in times of turmoil

We have raised our 2023–2025e EPS by 7–11% and our target price to SEK160 (150), following yet another strong result from SEB, with high NII growth, 18% ROE on an increasingly overcapitalised balance sheet, and intact asset quality. Although we forecast the strong NII momentum to abate in H2, we expect SEB to maintain >15% ROE in 2024–2025e and see a ramp-up of capital distributions as a potential share-price catalyst.

Northern Lights

SEB (Buy, TP: SEK160.00) - Thriving in times of turmoil

We have raised our 2023–2025e EPS by 7–11% and our target price to SEK160 (150), following yet another strong result from SEB, with high NII growth, 18% ROE on an increasingly overcapitalised balance sheet, and intact asset qusality. Although we forecast the strong NII momentum to abate in H2, we expect SEB to maintain >15% ROE in 2024–2025e and see a ramp-up of capital distributions as a potential share-price catalyst.

Standing strong in turbulent times

Given SHB’s earnings stability, strong track record in risk management, and overcapitalisation, we find its 2023–2025e P/E of c7x much too low. We expect the robust trends seen in recent quarters to have continued in Q1, with a widening of deposit margins offering further NII tailwinds. We have raised 2023–2025e EPS by 0–3%, raise our target price to SEK147, and reiterate BUY.

Nordea Bank Abp - Strategy, SWOT and Corporate Finance Report

Summary Nordea Bank Abp - Strategy, SWOT and Corporate Finance Report, is a source of comprehensive company data and information. The report covers the company's structure, operation, SWOT analysis, product and service offerings and corporate actions, providing a 360˚ view of the company. Key Highlights Nordea Bank Abp (Nordea), along with its subsidiaries, is a provider of a range of financial products and services. Its offerings include savings and currents accounts, consumer and personal l...

SEB (Buy, TP: SEK145.00) - Continued tailwinds

We have raised our 2023–2024e EPS by c3%, leaving us >10% above (pre-Q4) consensus pre-tax earnings for both years, with the stock trading at an unusually attractive 2023e P/E of c8x. Despite a likely slowdown in Swedish credit expansion for 2023e, we are positive on SEB’s 2023e earnings growth outlook from due to continued tailwinds from rate hikes in Sweden and the Baltics, potential market share capture outside of Sweden, and a likely rebound in fee income on the recent stock market recovery....

Buybacks could be stepped up

Given our expectations of rising profitability and slowing lending growth, we believe SEB could either increase share buybacks or more actively pursue acquisitions to deploy its capital over the next two years. We see the positive NII trend continuing, with ~20% growth in 2023e. We find the valuation undemanding at a 2023e P/E of c8.5x, and reiterate our BUY, with a new target price of SEK142 (140).

Powerpoint Sector Report - Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegi...

Total lending grew by 5.5% y-o-y (5.2% adjusted for FX effects, as Statistics Norway does) and 0.4% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 5.4% y-o-y. Corporate lending grew by 8.8% y-o-y and 0.7% m-o-m. Last month, corporate lending increased by 8.0% y-o-y. Adjusted for FX effects, the y-o-y growth in corporate lending was 7.8% (vs. 7.1% last month). Household lending was up 4% y-o-y and 0.3% m-o-m. Last month, household lending increased by 4.2% y-o-y.