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ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
  • Henrik Bartnes
  • Martin Melbye
ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
  • Henrik Bartnes
  • Martin Melbye
ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
  • Henrik Bartnes
  • Martin Melbye
ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
  • Henrik Bartnes
  • Martin Melbye
ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
  • Henrik Bartnes
  • Martin Melbye
ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
  • Henrik Bartnes
  • Martin Melbye

Q1 above, Q2 likely worse

Beat on clean EBIT. Higher deliveries and production on paperboard.

Johannes Grunselius
  • Johannes Grunselius

Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR5.00) - Excess pessimism

Reflecting escalating general macroeconomic uncertainty leading to softer packaging and board prices and FX headwinds (weaker USD and stronger SEK), we have reduced our 2025–2026e adj. EBITDA by close to 30%–20%. Despite these significant negative revisions, we still find the valuation multiples beyond the current year attractive, especially given Metsa Board’s favourable position in the board market and our belief that the balance sheet is under good control. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut ...

ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
  • Ali Shemmari
  • Martin Melbye
Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Holmberg

Who stands to benefit?

A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...

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