reports
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- Mattias Holmberg
Who stands to benefit?
A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...
UPM UPM-KYMMENE OYJ
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
ELUX B ELECTROLUX AB CLASS B
SAND SANDVIK AB
STERV STORA ENSO OYJ CLASS R
FLS FLSMIDTH & CO. A/S
KEMIRA KEMIRA OYJ
ROCK B ROCKWOOL INTERNATIONAL A/S CLASS B
METSB METSA BOARD OYJ CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
BILL BILLERUDKORSNAS AB
KCR KONECRANES OYJ
LIAB LINDAB INTERNATIONAL AB
ALIG ALIMAK GROUP AB
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB CLASS A
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
SYSR SYSTEMAIR AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
BEIJ B BEIJER REF AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
KALMAR KALMAR
- Johannes Grunselius
Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR5.60) - Worst should be over
With Q4 earnings below our muted expectations, we have cut our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 10%. Despite this, we continue to have confidence in the investment case. We still like the earnings exposure to pulp, where we believe prices are set to rise. This combined with leverage to increase paper board volumes should lead to higher earnings in 2025–2026e. We reiterate our BUY and EUR5.6 target price.
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- Johannes Grunselius
Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR5.60) - Market recovery should be here
Reflecting more conservative earnings margins, we have lowered our EBITDA for 2025–2026e by 20–10%. While this is negative, we still have confidence in the investment case. We continue to like Metsa Board’s earnings exposure to pulp, where we believe prices are about to rise which, combined with leverage to increased paper board volumes, should lead to higher earnings in 2025–2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to EUR5.6 (5.8).
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
SCA B SVENSKA CELLULOSA AKTIEBOLAGET CLASS B
STERV STORA ENSO OYJ CLASS R
HUH1V HUHTAMAKI OYJ
RROS ROTTNEROS AB
METSB METSA BOARD OYJ CLASS B
BILL BILLERUDKORSNAS AB
ATC ARCTIC PAPER SA
BRG BORREGAARD
HOLM B HOLMEN AB CLASS B
NPAPER NORDIC PAPER HOLDING
ELO ELOPAK ASA
NSKOG NORSKE SKOG ASA
- Johannes Grunselius
Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR5.80) - Worst should be over
Although we were negative surprised by the poor Q4 earnings guidance, we believe Q4 represents the worst business conditions in the business cycle. We have made hefty cuts to our 2024–2025e EBITDA of 30–20%. While this is negative, we still have confidence in the investment case. Assuming improved pulp prices and incremental profits after the completed investments, we see strong earnings growth from Q1e, translating into attractive valuation multiples. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our ...
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- Johannes Grunselius
Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR9.00) - Earnings recovery story for 2025e
With recent indications that the paper board demand recovery is slowing in H224, in combination with higher wood costs and weak trading conditions for pulp, we have further lowered our 2024–2025e EBITDA by 11–12%. While this is negative, we still like the investment case. Assuming improved pulp prices and incremental profits after completed investments, we see strong earnings growth from Q1 2025e, translating into attractive valuation multiples, and a healthy balance sheet. We reiterate our BUY...
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
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