September: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y

Stora acquires a Finnish sawmill company

Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR5.80) - Worst should be over

Although we were negative surprised by the poor Q4 earnings guidance, we believe Q4 represents the worst business conditions in the business cycle. We have made hefty cuts to our 2024–2025e EBITDA of 30–20%. While this is negative, we still have confidence in the investment case. Assuming improved pulp prices and incremental profits after the completed investments, we see strong earnings growth from Q1e, translating into attractive valuation multiples. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our ...

Going through a rough patch

Clean EBIT 11% below, Q4 likely weaker

Clean EBIT of EUR 42m vs cons EUR 47m. Higher deliveries and production on paperboard. Q4 guidance: clean EBIT to be weaker vs. Q3.

Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR9.00) - Earnings recovery story for 2025e

With recent indications that the paper board demand recovery is slowing in H224, in combination with higher wood costs and weak trading conditions for pulp, we have further lowered our 2024–2025e EBITDA by 11–12%. While this is negative, we still like the investment case. Assuming improved pulp prices and incremental profits after completed investments, we see strong earnings growth from Q1 2025e, translating into attractive valuation multiples, and a healthy balance sheet. We reiterate our BUY...

Wood is up and Pulp is down

Q3 preview

Metsa Board will report its next quarterly results on 24 October. We reiterate HOLD with a TP of EUR 7.0 (7.7). Q3'24e clean EBIT at EUR ~35m.

August: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y

July: Pulp shipments -4.0% y-o-y

June: Pulp shipments -4.5% y-o-y

Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR10.00) - Earnings recovery story still intact

Due to lower-than-expected pulp earnings from Metsa Fibre, Q2 earnings were below our expectations at the same time as the outlook guidance was more vague and softer than we expected. Reflecting the Q2 miss and a more cautious view on volumes and opex, we have lowered our 2024–2025e EBITDA by c24–9%. While this is negative, we continue to like the investment story due to strong earnings growth, appealing valuation multiples and a healthy balance sheet. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our targe...

Murphy's law

Q2: Clean EBIT below, but Q3 likely better. Costs push prices higher. Growth projects could add EUR 110m to mid-cycle EBIT.

Clean EBIT below, Q3 likely better

Clean EBIT of EUR -0.8m vs cons EUR 12.9m. Higher deliveries, lower production due to Kemi. Q3 guidance: clean EBIT to be stronger vs. Q2.

Liquid packaging board just got a bit more risky

June: Pulp shipments flat y-o-y

Costs push prices higher

A long list of price increases as costs push prices higher. Q2e EBIT likely down q-o-q: higher maintenance costs. Smart to buy when macro is low.

Q2 preview

Metsa Board will report its next quarterly results on 1 August. We reiterate HOLD with a TP of EUR 7.8. Q2'24e EBIT at ~EUR 10m.

Leading indicators

OECD: The indicator points up from a low level. US: The indicator points up (housing starts, monetary policy, interest rates, real FX). EU: The indicator points up from a low level (bond yields, stock market). Japan: The indicator is neutral (monetary policy, housing starts).

Fresh paper cuts - newsprint benefits