Securitas AB: 1 director

A director at Securitas AB bought 1,430 shares at 139.800SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 50/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director

A director at Novo Nordisk AS sold 40,000 shares at 450.528DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...

Keeps on improving profitability

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK950.00) - Dapiglutide likely next catalyst

Q1 revenue missed expectations on lower reimbursement revenue, while operating profit was a beat, as opex was below our forecast and consensus. The 2025 guidance was maintained for opex of DKK2,000m–2,500m. We believe the next potential share-price catalyst is the top-line results from the phase Ib dapiglutide trial in Q2e. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK950 (1,000).

Slight sales miss in Q1, profitability in line

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Accelerated Wegovy roll-out ahead

Q1 LCY figures beat our forecasts, while the 2025 guidance was cut to 13–21% LCY sales growth YOY and 16–24% LCY operating profit growth YOY due to weaker GLP-1 sales. We have lowered our rebate for US Ozempic but maintain our 52% Wegovy rebate (in line with the Q1 rebate when adjusting for de-stocking). We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Underlying soft GLP-1 sales

We forecast a soft Q1, with 17.3% LCY sales growth and 13.8% LCY operating profit growth due to subdued prescriptions. While we estimate Ozempic sales c0.5% below consensus, we are c1.2% above for Wegovy, as we include DKK1bn in sales related to Wegovy US inventories. We see likely relief from potential unchanged 2025 LCY guidance, supported by improved Wegovy supply and fading pressure from compounders. We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Focus on pipeline progression

We expect an uneventful Q1 report, with investor focus on top-line results from the dapiglutide phase Ib obesity trial (due in Q2), which could help provide clarity on the positioning of the molecule in obesity and inflammation. For petrelintide, we have reduced our peak sales forecast to cUSD10.0bn (cUSD10.8bn) on increased competition from GUBamy. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK1,000 (1,150).

Q1 delivered, Q2 looks tougher

Q1 above, Q2 likely worse

Beat on clean EBIT. Higher deliveries and production on paperboard.

Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR5.00) - Excess pessimism

Reflecting escalating general macroeconomic uncertainty leading to softer packaging and board prices and FX headwinds (weaker USD and stronger SEK), we have reduced our 2025–2026e adj. EBITDA by close to 30%–20%. Despite these significant negative revisions, we still find the valuation multiples beyond the current year attractive, especially given Metsa Board’s favourable position in the board market and our belief that the balance sheet is under good control. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut ...

Large US exposure turns into a headwind

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Subdued prescription growth in Q1

We have updated our model with the latest IQVIA data, and see downside risk to Visible Alpha consensus. We see Q1e global sales for Wegovy of DKK17,898m (c2.2% below consensus) and Ozempic of DKK31,642m (c1.5% below consensus). While a reaffirmation of guidance could offer relief, we have lowered our target price, primarily on lower-than-expected GLP-1 sales. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK900 (1,040).

Two negatives and one positive

Q1 preview

Feb: Pulp shipments +0.3% y-o-y

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK192.00) - More of the same in Q1e

We expect Q1 to show similar trends to the most recent quarters, but negative FX translation effects (strengthening SEK) still result in cuts to our 2025–2027e EPS of 4–5%. We continue to see a robust transformation case, as the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 continues, with our H2 2025e EBITA margin now at 7.8–7.9%. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK192 (200).

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Deal delivery

We are positive on the partnership with Roche for petrelintide and view the financial terms as favourable for Zealand Pharma. While we had included Roche as the partner for petrelintide in our base case, the deal terms are better than we assumed. Thus, we have updated our valuation for petrelintide to DKK731 NPV/share. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,150 (1,010), based on our SOTP NPV.

January: Pulp shipments +6.2% y-o-y

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1010.00) - Poised for big news

Q4 revenue was DKK9.1m, driven by the Zegalogue licence and development agreement with Novo Nordisk, and EBIT was DKK-399.3m (we forecast DKK-370.1m, consensus DKK-367.6m). The 2025 opex guidance was for DKK2,000m–2,500m, reflecting pipeline progression investments. We expect strong pipeline news flow in H1, including dapiglutide headline results and potentially a petrelintide partnership. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,010 target price.