Important year coming up

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

Odfjell SE (Buy, TP: NOK180.00) - On course for a solid rebound

With chemical volumes up 8% MOM in March and accelerated unwinding of OPEC+ cuts, coupled with only 3% tanker deliveries in 2025e and a record-high average fleet age, we see healthy prospects. Hence, we believe Odfjell screens attractively on an 18% 2025–2026e dividend yield, trading at a 2.4x average 2025–2026e P/E (tanker peers: 4.7x). We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK180 (200).

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK32.00) - Unit sales in line, EPS still tra...

Today’s Q1 trading update showed a unit sales recovery broadly in line with our forecast. However, while starts were above our forecast, our 2025e is unchanged at 700 units. Despite KPIs seemingly recovering as expected, we still see downside risk for the stock given the long lead time to profit and dividends and as the valuation looks high relative to peers. Ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:00 CET on 21 May), we forecast marginally negative Q1 EPS on few deliveries. We reiterate our SELL and ...

Sales as expected, deliveries above

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

Odfjell SE: 1 director

A director at Odfjell SE bought 3,500 shares at 103.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sh...

Selvaag Bolig ASA: 5 directors

Five Directors at Selvaag Bolig ASA sold 294,695 shares at between 36.840NOK and 37.020NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over ...

Some early signs of improvement

Price momentum building

NRC Group (Hold, TP: NOK4.50) - Results will speak for themselves

With its weaker-than-expected Q4, NRC Group reiterated its 2025 guidance for revenue of NOK7bn and an adj. EBIT margin above 2%. However, as the company has missed its revenue guidance and EBIT margin targets for seven years in a row (2018–2024), we await evidence of an EBIT margin recovery. We remain cautious, and believe NRC is a high-risk/high-reward investment case, with ample upside potential should it reach its EBIT margin targets. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to NO...

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK32.00) - DPS recovery still some way off

While we continue to expect KPIs such as sales and starts to improve in 2025–2026, the lead time to profit and dividends remains long, and we continue to see a better risk/reward in peers. Q4 results were, as expected, hit by few deliveries (low season) and one block of delivered (profit-recognised) units being a small rental building. As we roll forward our valuation and publish our 2027 forecasts, we reiterate our SELL but have raised our target price to NOK32 (30).

'25e volume guidance in line

Another messy report - ETM writedown of NOK 30m

Odfjell SE (Buy, TP: NOK200.00) - Stairway to yield heaven

While we have lowered our 2025e rates, we see a healthy outlook on decent volume growth, limited 3% tanker deliveries, an aging fleet, and >10% of the fleet targeted with sanctions, all supporting rates. We estimate a 27% earnings yield for Odfjell in 2025, and believe the stock screens as attractive at a 2025–2026e average P/E of 3.4x (tanker peers 5.1x). We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK200 (210).

A playbook on US tariffs

As a response to recent news flow of potential tariffs and countermeasures, we highlight the main implications for the shipping sectors we cover. While the specifics remain uncertain, the below input might assist in gauging potential impacts of the disruptions.

Q4e: Improving market outlook

Taking a hit from smaller unit deliveries in Q4

Keeping it cautious in 2024