We are significantly below consensus on Q1e EBITDA, owing to the challenging US truck market, with the uncertainty in demand, costs, and regulations resulting in lower demand for new trucks and technology shifts taking longer. With most of its business in the US, we consider Hexagon Composites vulnerable. As a result, we have lowered our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 9–15%. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK38 (50) on the weaker near-term outlook.
2025 looks set to be a transition year, with a slower roll-out of natural gas trucks and low Mobile Pipeline activity hampering H1. Thus, we have cut our 2025e EBITDA by 24%, to the top of the guidance of NOK640m–740m that we consider to be conservative. Seeing the long-term investment case as still intact and hearing welcomed commentary on no further financial support to Hexagon Purus, we consider yesterday’s sell-off to be an overreaction. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to...
We believe consensus is too conservative on realised margins; we are 8% above on Q4e EBITDA and 8–9% above on 2025–2026e EBITDA. We still consider X15N fuel system orders key for our investment case. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK52 (54). We still view the stock as attractively valued at 2025–2026e EV/EBITDAs of 8.2–6.6x.
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