Continued to execute well in Q3

Still in a sweet position

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK1100.00) - Norwegian premium

We expect Q3 group EBITDA of NOK2.0bn, in line with consensus (results due at 07:00 CET on 24 October). We have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 0–8% and our target price to NOK1,100 (970) following several large orders. However, we reiterate our HOLD, with the stock now trading at a 70-80% premium to its defence and maritime peers, as well as outperforming Saab by 40% since mid-June despite their similar growth prospects and earnings streams.

Crude Quarterly Q3'24: Lower oil price

Oil inventory draws for the rest of 2024. IEA is wrong – peak demand is not imminent. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

Kongsberg Gruppen ASA: 1 director

A director at Kongsberg Gruppen ASA maiden bought 1,000 shares at 974.810NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 58/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last tw...

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK970.00) - Kongsberg Gruppen keeps firi...

Kongsberg Gruppen reported Q2 EBITDA of NOK1,815m, surpassing our estimate by 8% and consensus by 11%. The result was driven largely by a strong performance in Kongsberg Maritime (KM) and Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace (KDA), while this was slightly offset by weaker results in Kongsberg Discovery and Kongsberg Digital (KD). We have raised our 2025–2027e EPS by 5%. We have increased our target price accordingly to NOK970 (850) and reiterate our HOLD.

Another solid quarter

12% EBITDA beat in Q2. Backlog supports estimates, but KM needs solid after-market growth. Rich valuation, but positive revisions - HOLD.

Likely still going strong in Q2

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK850.00) - Trading at Scandinavian prem...

We estimate Q2 EBITDA of NOK1.7bn (the results are due at 7:00 CET on 10 July). We have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 3% and our target price to NOK850 (780). We reiterate our HOLD as we struggle to see why Kongsberg Gruppen should trade even higher than its current 50% premium to its international peers. Despite a considerable defence spending ramp-up in Norway (doubling its budget toward 2030) and its neighbours, we emphasise that c70% of Kongsberg Gruppen’s defence sales come from the US and o...

Crude Quarterly Q2'24: tighter oil market ahead

Oil inventory draws for the rest of 2024. IEA is wrong – peak demand is not imminent. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

A good start to the year

Q1 EPS 7% above, but some special elements. Backlog implies revenue estimates are robust. Strong momentum, high expectations - HOLD.

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK780.00) - Solid Maritime margin beat i...

Q1 EBITDA beat our estimate and consensus by 9%, explained by a stronger Maritime (KM) margin than expected. However, as previously guided, the Defence (KD) margin did fall to 17% in this quarter. We have edged our 2025–2026e EPS up 2% after primarily raising our KM margin assumptions, but reiterate our HOLD and NOK780 target price as we believe the stock is already pricing in a possible ramp-up of NATO defence spending to at least 2.5% of GDP for all member states.

Rich in growth, quality and valuation

Still growing well into Q1e. Strong tailwinds in Defence, but within expectations. Strong growth into the end of the decade priced in - HOLD.

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK780.00) - NATO spending sets the tone

We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), but raised our target price to NOK780 (680), as we believe the valuation now reflects a probable NATO defence-spending ramp-up. Based on our analysis of various Western defence-budget scenarios and the correlation to Kongsberg Gruppen’s growth and valuation, we find the following priced in: by 2030, all non-US NATO defence spending rising to 2.5% of GDP, the equipment share of spending increasing from 30% to 40%, and Kongsberg Gruppen’s EBITDA margin expanding f...

Kongsberg Gruppen (Buy, TP: NOK680.00) - Solid earnings trajectory

Q4 EBITDA was NOK1.7bn, 8–7% above our estimate and consensus, driven by strong underlying performance across all segments. We have raised our 2024–2025e EPS by 6–5% on the Q4 print and find the 2025e P/E of ~21x too modest, as we believe the earnings compounding effect is set to continue beyond 2025. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to NOK680 (575) on our raised estimates and multiples expansion among defence and maritime peers.

Kongsberg Gruppen (Buy, TP: NOK575.00) - Earnings compounding continue...

We estimate 2023 revenue growth of ~25% YOY to ~NOK40bn, with a book-to-bill of ~1.2x in Maritime and ~2.3x in Defence for the year, suggesting the company will continue its impressive compounding journey in 2024–2025 (results due at 07:00 CET on 9 February. We continue to see meaningful upside potential for the stock given the strong earnings trajectory (trading at a 2025e P/E of ~18x). We reiterate our BUY and NOK575 target price.

Kongsberg Gruppen (Buy, TP: NOK550.00) - Stand by for ‘harvesting’ mod...

We expect Q3 EBITDA of NOK1,529m (results due at 07:00 CET on 27 October), up 13% YOY, and 3% above consensus, reflecting a continued firm growth trajectory. We believe the solid Defence order intake in Q3 (we estimate ~NOK20bn) to be a sign of things to come and estimate a divisional revenue CAGR of ~19% for 2022–2025. We have raised our 2024–2025e EPS by ~3%, reflecting an even stronger Defence outlook. We reiterate our BUY and NOK550 target price.

Northern Lights

Kongsberg Gruppen (Buy, TP: NOK550.00) - Adding to the growth pipeline

Kongsberg Gruppen reported Q2 results roughly on a par with expectations, with Kongsberg Maritime slightly soft (3–7% EBITDA miss versus our estimate and consensus) offset by a 3% EBITDA beat in Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace. We have made minor estimate revisions and continue to see solid growth prospects in all business segments. We reiterate our BUY and NOK550 target price.

Northern Lights