A good start to the year

Q1 EPS 7% above, but some special elements. Backlog implies revenue estimates are robust. Strong momentum, high expectations - HOLD.

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK780.00) - Solid Maritime margin beat i...

Q1 EBITDA beat our estimate and consensus by 9%, explained by a stronger Maritime (KM) margin than expected. However, as previously guided, the Defence (KD) margin did fall to 17% in this quarter. We have edged our 2025–2026e EPS up 2% after primarily raising our KM margin assumptions, but reiterate our HOLD and NOK780 target price as we believe the stock is already pricing in a possible ramp-up of NATO defence spending to at least 2.5% of GDP for all member states.

Rich in growth, quality and valuation

Still growing well into Q1e. Strong tailwinds in Defence, but within expectations. Strong growth into the end of the decade priced in - HOLD.

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK780.00) - NATO spending sets the tone

We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), but raised our target price to NOK780 (680), as we believe the valuation now reflects a probable NATO defence-spending ramp-up. Based on our analysis of various Western defence-budget scenarios and the correlation to Kongsberg Gruppen’s growth and valuation, we find the following priced in: by 2030, all non-US NATO defence spending rising to 2.5% of GDP, the equipment share of spending increasing from 30% to 40%, and Kongsberg Gruppen’s EBITDA margin expanding f...

Kongsberg Gruppen (Buy, TP: NOK680.00) - Solid earnings trajectory

Q4 EBITDA was NOK1.7bn, 8–7% above our estimate and consensus, driven by strong underlying performance across all segments. We have raised our 2024–2025e EPS by 6–5% on the Q4 print and find the 2025e P/E of ~21x too modest, as we believe the earnings compounding effect is set to continue beyond 2025. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to NOK680 (575) on our raised estimates and multiples expansion among defence and maritime peers.

Kongsberg Gruppen (Buy, TP: NOK575.00) - Earnings compounding continue...

We estimate 2023 revenue growth of ~25% YOY to ~NOK40bn, with a book-to-bill of ~1.2x in Maritime and ~2.3x in Defence for the year, suggesting the company will continue its impressive compounding journey in 2024–2025 (results due at 07:00 CET on 9 February. We continue to see meaningful upside potential for the stock given the strong earnings trajectory (trading at a 2025e P/E of ~18x). We reiterate our BUY and NOK575 target price.

Kongsberg Gruppen (Buy, TP: NOK550.00) - Stand by for ‘harvesting’ mod...

We expect Q3 EBITDA of NOK1,529m (results due at 07:00 CET on 27 October), up 13% YOY, and 3% above consensus, reflecting a continued firm growth trajectory. We believe the solid Defence order intake in Q3 (we estimate ~NOK20bn) to be a sign of things to come and estimate a divisional revenue CAGR of ~19% for 2022–2025. We have raised our 2024–2025e EPS by ~3%, reflecting an even stronger Defence outlook. We reiterate our BUY and NOK550 target price.

Northern Lights

Kongsberg Gruppen (Buy, TP: NOK550.00) - Adding to the growth pipeline

Kongsberg Gruppen reported Q2 results roughly on a par with expectations, with Kongsberg Maritime slightly soft (3–7% EBITDA miss versus our estimate and consensus) offset by a 3% EBITDA beat in Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace. We have made minor estimate revisions and continue to see solid growth prospects in all business segments. We reiterate our BUY and NOK550 target price.

Northern Lights

Kongsberg Gruppen (Buy, TP: NOK550.00) - Well positioned for the arms ...

We reinstate a recommendation with a BUY, and a NOK550 target price, reflecting our view of an attractive valuation and solid growth prospects. We expect EPS to virtually double over 2022–2025, but also see potential for ~NOK400bn revenues from the Naval Strike Missile (NSM), Joint Strike Missile (JSM) and Norwegian Advanced Surface-To-Air Missile System (NASAMS) over the next 20–30 years, as well as Kongsberg Maritime benefiting from a maritime megatrend of growing digitalisation on ships and t...

Northern Lights

Kongsberg Gruppen (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Legacy business beat

Kongsberg Gruppen reported Q1 EBITDA of NOK1,357m, c19% above our estimates, with significant beats in Kongsberg Maritime (KM) and Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace (KDA). We have raised our 2024–2025e EPS by 3–4%, reflecting a stronger growth pipeline in addition to a 60–100bp margin increase. Due to our role in the potential listing of Kongsberg Digital, we have no recommendation or target price on Kongsberg Gruppen.

Northern Lights

Kongsberg Gruppen (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Stacking up missile orders

We expect Q1 EBITDA of NOK1,141m (results due at 07:00 CET on 27 April), ~1% below consensus, with Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace (KDA) EBITDA of NOK566m (~3% below consensus), while we are in line for Kongsberg Maritime (KM), with EBITDA of NOK614m, and expect another quarter with a significant contribution from aftermarket sales. We have made minor 2023–2025e EPS revisions. Due to our role in the potential listing of Kongsberg Digital, we have no recommendation or target price on Kongsberg Grup...

Kongsberg Gruppen ASA: 1 director

A director at Kongsberg Gruppen ASA bought 8,800 shares at 381.690NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years...

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Kongsberg Gruppen (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Stage set for further growth

Kongsberg Gruppen’s Q4 EBITDA was NOK1,401m, 1% above our estimate. By division, Kongsberg Maritime (KM) reported EBITDA of NOK662m, 2% above our estimate, while Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace (KDA) reported NOK885m, c13% above our estimate. However, the EBITDA beat from legacy segments was offset by ramp-up costs within Kongsberg Digital. Our 2023–2025 estimates are largely unchanged. Due to our role in the potential listing of Kongsberg Digital, we have no recommendation or target price on Kong...

Kongsberg Gruppen (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Defence playing offence

We expect Q4 EBITDA of NOK1,382m (results due at 07:00 CET on 10 February), in line with consensus, but divisional EBITDA of NOK646m for Kongsberg Maritime (KM), c5% below consensus. In Q4, Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace (KDA) announced several meaningful contracts, including a five-year IDIQ contract worth USD1,498m for continued delivery of CROWS to the US Army. Due to our role in the potential listing of Kongsberg Digital, we have no recommendation or target price on Kongsberg Gruppen.

Kongsberg Gruppen - Secures 5y extension of CROWS deliveries

Awarded ~USD 1.5bn 5y frame agreement for CROWS The previous scope was ~USD 1bn for similar period Strong Defence momentum continues