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ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
Tomi Railo
  • Tomi Railo

Kone (Hold, TP: EUR52.00) - Focus on orders and outlook

We are neutral ahead of the Q1 results due on 30 April (no details available) – we are in line with post-Q4 consensus on orders and sales, while we are 2% below on clean EBIT. We have cut our 2025–2027e clean EPS by c2% on average, mainly due to FX. We reiterate our HOLD and EUR52 target price.

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK32.00) - Unit sales in line, EPS still tra...

Today’s Q1 trading update showed a unit sales recovery broadly in line with our forecast. However, while starts were above our forecast, our 2025e is unchanged at 700 units. Despite KPIs seemingly recovering as expected, we still see downside risk for the stock given the long lead time to profit and dividends and as the valuation looks high relative to peers. Ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:00 CET on 21 May), we forecast marginally negative Q1 EPS on few deliveries. We reiterate our SELL and ...

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Bengt Jonassen
Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Holmberg

Who stands to benefit?

A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...

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