CMCSA: The value unlock trade? Nope. No major change in fundamentals

We shared our view of Comcast’s results this morning. Results were in line and commentary on the business fundamentals were mostly unchanged. In this note following the earnings call and our follow-up conversations, we address the following key investor issues including 1) the big picture value unlock theory; 2) the newly (apparently) amended VZ MVNO agreement; 3) broadband ARPU growth; 4) Connectivity EBITDA growth; 5) 2026 capital spend; 6) wireless net adds, and 7) 2026 FCF.

CMCSA 4Q25 Quick Take: Results mostly in line; Waiting to hear what’s ...

Comcast’s results were mostly in line with estimates. Broadband losses and ARPU were in line. On the call, we would be keen to hear about subscriber trends in 1Q. We don’t expect any major changes to the stock price based on these results. What will drive the stock today is commentary on 1Q broadband trends and potential ‘value unlock’ from an NBCU spin.

Can CMCSA Buy CHTR After the Cox Deal is Done?

With the CHTR/Cox deal moving towards approval and CMCSA out of running for WBD, we are again getting questions as to whether CMCSA could buy the combined CHTR/Cox entity. Further, as our New Street colleagues discussed yesterday, there has been a divergence in the stock price performances of Comcast and Charter driven by a potential ‘value unlock’ resulting from a potential split of Comcast cable from NBCU. It is beyond the scope of our expertise to analyze the financial details that could jus...

What Do Carr’s Comments Mean for WBD Deal?

FCC Chairman Carr has offered his view on potential competition problems with the NFLX/WBD deal. In this note, we analyze how investors should interpret those comments in projecting what the ultimate government decision will be.

CMCSA: Potential Value Unlock?

Investors have been asking about the diverging stock price performance between Comcast and Charter. We believe the reason is an expanding conversation about the potential ‘value unlock’ that could emerge were Comcast to split its cable and NBCU businesses. In this note, we estimate what Comcast could be worth were this scenario to play out. To be clear, we are skeptical. Not that it shouldn’t happen, but rather the Roberts’ are too invested in their belief about the synergy between these entitie...

The future of US wireless, right now - Extrapolating 3Q25 wireless tre...

We are taking 3Q25 results and the most recent cNPS data and laying out our latest thinking and forecasts ahead of 4Q results. We expect 4Q results and attendant 2026 guidance to contain material information value for investors and we wanted to share our latest forecasts, data, and trends as a starting point as we navigate this impactful season.

A deeper dive on 'terminal' broadband market share

We recently published our Future of Broadband report where we predicted Cable’s broadband market share will continue to fall for the foreseeable future. We got the question, 'what is cable market share looking like in the most mature fiber markets, is it asymptoting?'. The answer is no. In this report, we use data from our Opensignal partnership to show that Cable’s subscriber market share has continued to fall in markets where they compete against only one fiber provider over a multi-year perio...

Part Three of Year in Preview: Our Analysis about Policyband’s Predict...

This week we published three notes that preview what we think will be critical to investors in telecom/media/tech policy environment. In the first, we evaluated what questions do we not know the answer to today but will in a year that will have a material impact on stocks and depend in part on policy. In the second, we looked at the biggest policy related investment stories of 2025 and how the lingering elements of those stories will play out. In this third one we evaluate nine predictions mad...

Part Two of Year in Preview: What about SATS, BEAD, Spectrum, and Othe...

This week we are publishing three notes that analyze what we think will be critical to investors in telecom/media/tech policy environment in the year ahead. In the first one, published yesterday we evaluated questions that we do not know the answer to today--but will in a year--that will have a material impact on stocks and depend in part on policy. In this second one, we look at the biggest policy related investment stories of 2025 and how the lingering elements of those stories will play out i...

NXST/TGNA: How will Trump’s New Posts and the WBD Battle Affect the De...

Recently, President Trump posted something the market perceived as negative news for the NXST/TGNA deal, sending both stocks down. We published a note in which we laid out why we believed that the risk to the deal has risen but still thought the odds favored approval. Some have challenged our view, and Trump subsequently directly criticized Nexstar’s news programming. In addition, the battle about WBD media consolidation have dominated headlines. In this note, we address how Trump’s most rece...

In Partial Win for Cable, Trump Memoranda Appears to Protect CBRS

Late Friday, President Trump released a new Presidential Memoranda on 6G and Spectrum. While what the Memoranda said is largely a restatement of what we have previously reported, we think the most important element for investors is what it didn’t say; specifically, that by omission it appears to protect the spectrum known as the Citizens Band Radio Services (CBRS) currently used by cable (and others) for wireless services. In this note we provide an analysis of the Memoranda.

CMCSA 4Q25 Preview

We have updated our model for recent management commentary at investor conferences. Changes to our estimates are minor. We expect broadband losses to remain elevated due to heightened competition from fiber and FWA.

An Investor Framework for analyzing the WBD Battle: Phases and Scenari...

Investors are struggling to understand the antitrust and judicial process that will determine who will win WBD’s assets. We thought it would be helpful to frame the (at least three and up to six) phases of the process and the scenarios within each. In this note, we outline those phases and provide policy related guideposts to follow as the game plays out.

5 Things to Know in Investing This Week - The It Just Doesn’t Matter I...

Trump Helps/Hurts/Muddles PSKY Effort, Illustrating Ellison Antitrust ...

President Trump has said that the ownership of CNN must change, a potential sign that he is likely to instruct his DOJ to block the proposed NFLX purchase of WBD, as CNN is not part of the deal, while it would be part of a PSKY deal. In this quick note, we discuss how that comment illustrates the Ellison Antitrust Paradox we wrote about earlier this week.

The Ellison Antitrust Paradox: They Need Trump but Trump Card Could Ba...

PSKY has challenged the WBD board decision to accept the NFLX bid to buy WBD, arguing that WBD is “pursuing an inferior proposal” that would lead to “a challenging regulatory approval process.” In this note we quickly identify several problems with the Ellison approach that we have not seen reflected in the coverage this morning.

Update on WBD: What Trump Transaction Tax Could NFLX Pay?

Yesterday, multiple stories appeared on how the bidding for WBD by PSKY, NFLX and CMSCA is playing out, the biggest one—that WBD is now exclusively negotiating with NFLX—coming out late last night. In this note we update our thinking on the implications of the news and our sense where the game is headed.

Comcast Corporation: Update to credit analysis

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its strategic emphasis on revenue growers within its diversified portfolio of businesses and end markets.

CMCSA Quick Hit: A Merger Between NBCU and WBD?

Press reports indicate that Comcast has submitted a revised bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and has offered to merge it with its NBCUniversal division (NBCU). WBD shareholders would receive a mix of cash and stock in the new entity. We think there are merits to this transaction but getting a deal approved by the regulators could prove challenging.

The future of broadband 3Q25: Our updated broadband industry forecast ...

In this report, our latest broadband outlook tome, in addition to forecasting the future of broadband by technology for the next 5 years, we undertake a sensitivity analysis for Cable's end-state market share possibilities. We also refresh our work on the relative competitive positioning of carriers based on end-user cNPS scores via our Recon Analytics partnership.