reports
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Fiber slips further; FWA gains some ground
Georgia, New Mexico and Oklahoma have reported their BEAD proposals. We are also including the numbers released by Washington yesterday. While fiber remains the dominant technology, its share slipped further. FWA and satellite increased their share of locations. In this note, we analyze the results, compare them with estimates from our Broadband Insights database, and its implications for broadband companies.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: More state proposals; Fiber still dominant but Satellite gaining...
We now have BEAD proposals from 12 states. While fiber still remains the dominant technology, its share of locations has decreased as Satellite gains more ground. In this note, we analyze the results, compare them with estimates from our Broadband Insights database, and its implications for broadband companies.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: West Virginia releases final proposal
What’s new: West Virginia released their final proposal last night. Among large broadband operators, Frontier was the big winner. Comcast continues to feature in the list of proposed providers. Fiber continues to be the preferred technology. In this short note, we discuss the proposal, compare the results with our estimates from Broadband Insights database, provide a quick summary of BEAD proposals so far, and discuss the implications for broadband companies.
- Vikash Harlalka
2Q25 Broadband Trends
What’s new: in this report we discuss one of the drivers of slower broadband growth – a rise in mobileonly households. While we do not have the data to support it, we discuss the reasons why we find it a plausible explanation for the slower industry growth. We also update our industry forecast and reprise our work on competitive positioning of the operators based on relative cNPS scores.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Louisiana releases final proposal
Louisiana was the second state to release their final proposal at the end of last week. Virginia just beat Louisiana and was the first. Louisiana Local Fiber Consortium, which includes T-Mobile, was the big winner again. Surprisingly, Comcast was the only large Cable operator among the winners. The ILECs won less than we expected. Fiber continues to be the technology of choice for BEAD. In this short note, we discuss the proposal, compare the results with our estimates from Broadband Insights da...
- Blair Levin
Could the Trump/Carr Gambits Against CMSCA (and DIS) Backfire?
Recently, we published a note in which we laid out why we thought the FCC Chair’s investigation of CMSCA’s treatment of its network affiliates, like his prior investigation of DIS, was unlikely to lead to a judicially supported resolution; rather, the investigation was designed to provide Carr leverage in any FCC transaction involving CMSCA. We also just published a note discussing how the FCC and DOJ are likely to provide greater consolidation among broadcasters and cable channels, putting econ...
- Vikash Harlalka
Autumn for Broadband 2Q25
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Net adds remained nearly flat compared to a year ago (when adjusted for ACP impact) but were within the pre-pandemic norm. Industry subscriber trends have mostly stabilized over the past 3 quarters, but y/y growth remains below pre-pandemic levels.
- Vikash Harlalka
Comcast Post-2Q25 Model Update
In this note, we cover changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. Please see separate notes reviewing results (here) and thoughts following the earnings call. The most significant changes are slightly lower broadband losses and higher FCF in 2025. No change to thesis. Price target is $37 (+12%).
- Vikash Harlalka
CMCSA: Thoughts following the 2Q25 call
In this note we provide our thoughts on connectivity revenue and EBITDA, the changes in pricing strategy, broadband ARPU growth and wireless net adds in back half of the year, fiber overbuilds, savings from tax reforms and usage of the proceeds. Finally, we touch on what to do with the stock.
- Vikash Harlalka
- Jonathan Chaplin
New Cable MVNO – implications for Cable and Mobile operators
Charter and Comcast announced that they have signed an MVNO with T-Mobile that will target new business customers (here). In this quick note we provide thoughts on implications for Verizon, T-Mobile, Charter, Comcast, and the industry more broadly.
- Blair Levin
Media Consolidation: Will FOX (Like CMSCA and DIS) Be in a Trump Trans...
As the Skydance/Paramount deal has demonstrated, the Trump FCC will address media transactions through a political lens. In this note, we discuss the implications for the sector of FOX potentially finding itself in the same position as CSMCA and DIS when it comes to the upcoming media consolidation, as well as other implications of the Colbert Affair and the federal defunding of PBS.
- Jonathan Chaplin
There is more Cable and Fiber M&A coming
This report provides a detailed update to our fiber forecast, with implications for the Fiber and Cable operators. The analysis suggests a strong incentive for Mobile and Cable operators to continue to consolidate assets. The analysis leverages the latest release of FCC data coupled with new features and data sets that have been built into Broadband Insights.
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Updating Price Targets for One Big Beautiful Bill Act
We have updated the price targets for our coverage as a result of the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Prior to the bill becoming law, we had already added the value of tax reform to our price targets on a probability-weighted basis. We have now increased the probability from 75% to 100%.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CMCSA quick hit: Comcast continues to make the right pricing moves
After launching 5-year price guarantee plans in April, Comcast has now announced some tweaks to plans that are discounted for one year, and to rack rates. These announcements are less meaningful than the 5-year plans, though they continue to inch gradually in the right direction. Our quick thoughts in this brief note.
- Blair Levin
Rethinking BEAD 2.0 as States Rethink Their Options
Earlier this month, as expected, Secretary of Commerce Lutnick released new rules for BEAD, requiring all the states to rebid and prioritizing the lowest cost option. Our initial reaction was that the new rules would shift funds from fiber to satellite, a negative for wired providers including CMSCA, CHTR, T, and VZ/FYBR. We still think that but in talking to numerous stakeholders, that magnitude of the shift may be less than we initially thought. In this note we examine two themes that have ...
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer
While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...
- Jonathan Chaplin
A closer look at Cox footprint
We’ve been getting questions from clients about competitive dynamics in Cox’s markets after Charter announced its acquisition. In this note, we use Broadband Insights to explore the fiber competition in Cox’s markets today and in the future, who the largest competitors are, and market demographics.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CMCSA: Thoughts following two days with the Comcast team
We just returned from two days at Universal Orlando. We learned a lot about the theme parks business, but not much that would change our thesis on the Company. We learned a little about the pivot taking place in Cable that is important to the thesis.
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