reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
CMCSA quick hit: Comcast continues to make the right pricing moves
After launching 5-year price guarantee plans in April, Comcast has now announced some tweaks to plans that are discounted for one year, and to rack rates. These announcements are less meaningful than the 5-year plans, though they continue to inch gradually in the right direction. Our quick thoughts in this brief note.
- Blair Levin
Rethinking BEAD 2.0 as States Rethink Their Options
Earlier this month, as expected, Secretary of Commerce Lutnick released new rules for BEAD, requiring all the states to rebid and prioritizing the lowest cost option. Our initial reaction was that the new rules would shift funds from fiber to satellite, a negative for wired providers including CMSCA, CHTR, T, and VZ/FYBR. We still think that but in talking to numerous stakeholders, that magnitude of the shift may be less than we initially thought. In this note we examine two themes that have ...
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer
While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...
- Jonathan Chaplin
A closer look at Cox footprint
We’ve been getting questions from clients about competitive dynamics in Cox’s markets after Charter announced its acquisition. In this note, we use Broadband Insights to explore the fiber competition in Cox’s markets today and in the future, who the largest competitors are, and market demographics.
T-Mobile US Inc: 1 director
A director at T-Mobile US Inc sold 45,000 shares at 242.695USD and the significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...
- Jonathan Chaplin
CMCSA: Thoughts following two days with the Comcast team
We just returned from two days at Universal Orlando. We learned a lot about the theme parks business, but not much that would change our thesis on the Company. We learned a little about the pivot taking place in Cable that is important to the thesis.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 1Q25
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Net adds declined from an already weak pace a year ago and are well below the pre-pandemic norm. The expected recovery following the end of ACP didn’t materialize. We ponder whether growth is structurally lower, or whether temporary ACP-related pressures have persisted longer than expected.
- Blair Levin
The Cost of the Deal: What Does the Skydance/Paramount Situation Tell ...
Paramount is entering into mediation to resolve the litigation with President Trump and remove a barrier to FCC approval of the pending acquisition by Skydance. In this note we update our thoughts on what the deal’s process tells us about pending and future deals can expect from the government approval process.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR and CMCSA: correcting price comparisons
This note corrects the pricing comparison we showed for Comcast and Charter last week. When we checked pricing on the Charter website, we were presented with an old Spectrum One offer, for some reason. In this note, we include a more complete comparison of pricing across both categories of offers available at both companies. The punchline: Charter’s rack rates have come down a lot.
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile: Quick thoughts following the 1Q25 call
What’s new: in this note we cover the case for T-Mobile buying a cable asset and what we learned about the odds of this from the call, new insights into T-Mobile’s fiber strategy, what it means for Cable and Fiber assets, further thoughts on the slowdown in growth in the broadband market, important insights into what might be driving the strength in the mobile market, and how T-Mobile will approach tariffs. We will publish a separate comprehensive review of results and model update shortly.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Comcast Post-1Q25 Model Update
What’s new: In this note, we cover changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. Please see separate notes reviewing results and thoughts following the earnings call. The most significant changes are higher broadband losses and lower EBITDA in 2025. We expect Consensus to increase broadband losses as well as lower EBITDA. No change to thesis. Price target is $38 (+15%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
CMCSA: Quick thoughts following the call 1Q25
What’s new: in this note we cover the source of the pressure Comcast is seeing on broadband growth (market vs competition), we cover the potential causes of slower market growth, we cover the causes of competitive pressures and the impact of recent pricing changes, and we touch on implications for ARPU and EBITDA growth.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Blair Levin
In Good News for CMSCA, DIS (and Robocallers and Pirate Radio, Among O...
What’s New: The Fifth Circuit overturned the FCC’s 2020 and 2024 decisions to impose a $57 million fine against T for actions related to improper use customer data. Based on a recent Supreme Court decision, the appellate court ruled that the FCC actions violate T’s Seventh Amendment right to a jury trial, likely upending broader FCC enforcement efforts. In this note we analyze the impact of the Court’s decision on our coverage universe generally and well as specifically to some of the companie...
- Jonathan Chaplin
CMCSA: Free Wireless Line for All Broadband Customers
What’s new: Wepublished a brief note yesterday on the rising competitive intensity in Wireless following T-Mobile’s launch of new plans. Later in the day, Comcast launched a new Wireless plan and new free-line promotions too. We cover Comcast’s new offers and the implications for the Company and the group in this brief note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile's most recent price moves suggest rising competition
What’s new: Verizon reported mid-single-digit growth in gross adds after amending their offers in mid-March and double-digit growth in gross adds after launching a three-year price guarantee in April. T-Mobile responded with new plans that include a five-year price guarantee this morning. We cover implications for the industry in this quick comment.
- Blair Levin
Another Starlink v. DISH Spectrum Battle
What’s New: Another front has opened in the long running war between SpaceX/Starlink and DISH/EchoStar. In this latest one, SpaceX argues that DISH’s utilization of its AWS-4 band should compel the FCC to start a rulemaking to establish a new framework for sharing the 2 GHz MSS band. In this note, we summarize SpaceX’s arguments, DISH’s response, what FCC precedent and the relevant Trump agenda tells us, as well as the great unknown about the level of Musk’s influence at the FCC.
- Blair Levin
BEAD Data Shows CMSCA Active in Many States
With all but four states having started and/or completed their prequalification process for eligibility for BEAD funding, there is new data showing high levels of participation by CMSCA and CHTR, with significant levels of participation by T and FBYR (to be acquired by VZ.) In this note we discuss that data and state of play as the states move forward and the Department of Commerce aims for a decision in about a month (which we think is likely to be delayed) for resolving how the BEAD should be...
- Vikash Harlalka
- Jonathan Chaplin
Conflicting expectations in mobile and broadband
In our Broadband Trends report published this week, we show that bottom-up forecasts are well below our top-down forecast. The disconnect is all in Cable, and mostly in Comcast. We don’t have enough conviction in our top-down forecast to make a call on Comcast, particularly ahead of 1Q25 results where management has provided very clear context on trends, but we suspect results for the year won’t be as bad as feared. By contrast in our Wireless Trends report last week, we showed that our forecas...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.