AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK120.00) - Q1 results are secondary

Given the E4 Bypass Stockholm project cancellation and the filing of fraud charges with the Swedish police by Trafikverket, our focus will be on the company’s position in Sweden, not its Q1 results. AF Gruppen has released limited details on the Trafikverket situation and has denied the charges. Ahead of the results (due at 07:00 CET on 15 May), we are below consensus on Q1e EBIT, despite being at the consensus midpoint. We reiterate our SELL and NOK120 target price.

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK120.00) - The ripple effects could be worse

After the Swedish Transport Administration on 19 February stated it was terminating its contract with AF Gruppen for the ongoing E4 Bypass Stockholm project – pointing to contract violations so serious that it intends to file police charges – we have eliminated the order from our backlog and cut our 2025e EPS by c5%. However, if found guilty of the violations in the legal process, we see even greater downside risk that in a worst-case scenario could include the company being excluded from public...

Higher uncertainty — down to HOLD

Large contract termination and serious allegations

Starting to show its true earnings power

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK120.00) - Too-high valuation and expectations

AF Gruppen reported Q4 revenue and EBIT above well our forecasts and Bloomberg consensus. Given the gross figures were boosted by minority share of profits and IFRIC15 accounting effects, the adj. EPS was still just 2% above our estimate and 7% above Infront consensus. We have raised our EPS for 2025e by c5% and 2026e by c4%. As we publish our 2027 forecasts, we have rolled forward our valuation, and thus have raised our target price to NOK120 (115). We reiterate our SELL.

Sweden and Betonmast surprises on the upside

Q4e: Improving market outlook

All-time high order intake

Wide peer valuation range on market recovery expectations

Various waves of expectations for a recovery in newbuild markets have led to volatility in the sector, but an upwards share-price trend overall. Although we still await proof the new-volume market (both residential and commercial) is recovering, consensus is fuelled by falling rates. However, trailing profits under IFRS valuations are record-wide. We maintain a neutral sector view and stock-picking approach.

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK115.00) - 2025 consensus EPS seem high

While AF Gruppen’s EBIT margins are among the sector’s most profitable, we believe consensus EPS has been too high, especially long-term. Despite several years of shortfalls, consensus EPS remains elevated, in our opinion, and we continue to see downside risk for 2025e and 2026e. However, our Q4 forecast is in line with consensus. We reiterate our SELL, finding better risk/reward at peers, but have raised our target price to NOK115 (100), as we updated peer valuations.

Norway: Best ideas Q4'24

AF Gruppen ASA: 1 director

A director at AF Gruppen ASA sold 40,000 shares at 134.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 57/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Solid order momentum for the coming quarters

Mixed report - Betonmast margin 4.7%

Quality hiding under the surface

Q3e: Operating PTP NOK 281m vs. cons. NOK 284m. >70% of Sweden revenue has ~6% margin. BUY, TP NOK 150.

KPIs and profits reflect cycle-lows

While the sector has rallied on expectations of a recovery in Nordic CRE and residential starts, there are no signs of an actual recovery yet. With our base case still for a gradual sales recovery in 2026, our longer-term estimates remain below consensus, reflecting slow profit-recognition under IFRS – the latter also underlies our expectation of declining revenues and EBIT YOY in Q3 for several names we cover. Our sector top picks are still Skanska, NCC and Veidekke, while we see downside risk ...

Betonmast Sweden soon to be history

NOK 100m loss-making production left in Betonmast Sweden. >70% of Sweden revenue has ~6% margin. BUY, TP NOK 150 (155).

LTM FCF/sh NOK 12.6

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK100.00) - Profit warning: EPS and DPS cut

A profit warning published after market close on 22 August included a NOK240m project writedown in the Offshore division, and guidance for divisional net profit just in the black in Q2. As a result, we have cut our group 2024e EPS by 23.4% and DPS from NOK7 to NOK5. We reiterate our SELL, and believe the size of the 2025e P/E premium to peers is unwarranted given the sector risk (AF Gruppen is not immune, as evidenced by recent project writedowns). Our target price remains NOK100, as we focus on...