No good deed goes unpunished

Downside risk to Q1, but improved performance

Weak spot price, but signs of improvements

More than just a dollar play

Nordic shorts: Yubico, H&M, Maersk and ISS

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK120.00) - Q1 results are secondary

Given the E4 Bypass Stockholm project cancellation and the filing of fraud charges with the Swedish police by Trafikverket, our focus will be on the company’s position in Sweden, not its Q1 results. AF Gruppen has released limited details on the Trafikverket situation and has denied the charges. Ahead of the results (due at 07:00 CET on 15 May), we are below consensus on Q1e EBIT, despite being at the consensus midpoint. We reiterate our SELL and NOK120 target price.

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - Tailwinds ahead

We expect Norwegian Air Shuttle to report a weak Q1, hit by high capacity growth and Easter timing effects. However, we find the outlook for the summer season increasingly encouraging, with healthy demand, low supply growth and a positive cost impact from a weaker USD. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK15 (13) on positive revisions.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Increased supply

Good growth due to warm waters and reduced biological challenges have resulted in a material uptick in standing biomass and a favourable supply outlook. We have raised our 2025e YOY harvest growth to 7.1% (5.0%), driven by Norway, which we now expect to grow 6.9% (3.6%) YOY. We have cut our 2025–2027e spot prices to EUR7.2 (7.5) and EUR7.6 (7.8), corresponding to NOK84–89/kg. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 13–9% and reiterate our neutral view on the sector, expecting sideways movement until s...

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - February traffic statistic...

We consider this a neutral report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, including a yield in line with expectations on a marginally lower load and positive booking comments. We expect only minor changes to consensus 2025e adj. EBITDA and believe a neutral share price reaction is warranted.

Feb below, good booking momentum

Traffic stats for Feb: Group sales 2bn, -3.9% vs us / cons on lower yield in NAS. Outlook: Sees good booking momentum

Circio Holding (No_rec, TP: NOK) - circVec circular RNA technology

Yesterday, Circio Holding presented the circVec platform and its potential at two international industry conferences. We continue to like the focus on the circRNA programme, but the company is still in an early stage and the funding situation remains unclear to us.

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Austevoll Seafood (Buy, TP: NOK131.00) - Lerøy stronger, stub softer

Q4 EBITDA of NOK1,401m was 15–7% above our estimate and consensus, driven by Lerøy Seafood and Austral, while Pelagia missed expectations. The outlook for 2025 remains solid for Lerøy Seafood, but mixed for the stub. A DPS of NOK6.5 was proposed for 2024. We reiterate our BUY but have trimmed our target price to NOK131 (133), based on our updated SOTP.

Buying used aircraft: Pos EPS effect

Buying 10 Boeing aircraft - should lift clean '25 EPS by ~10%

Lerøy Seafood (Buy, TP: NOK67.00) - Q4 beat and good outlook

Lerøy Seafood reported operating EBIT of NOK799m, c14% above our estimate and c7% above consensus. The board proposed a DPS of NOK2.5 for 2024, in line with consensus but below our estimate of NOK2.6. Biomass growth was a record-high, and submersible cages have shown an 85% reduction in sea-lice treatments, largely confirming the positive effect we had looked for. We have increased our 2025–2027e EPS by 1.6–2.0% on higher realised prices and harvest volumes, and reiterate our BUY and NOK67 targe...