Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK39.00) - On track towards full-year targets

Telia reported a solid Q1, with 1.8% service revenue growth YOY, 6.7% EBITDA growth, and SEK1.7bn in FCF. The performance strengthens our view that Telia can reach its full-year targets. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK39 (38.5).

Telia Company AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at Telia Company AB bought 36,000 shares at between 35.430SEK and 35.750SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over t...

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we lowered our target price in Investor to SEK320 following a 9% write-down of Patricia Industries in its Q1 report; 2) we reduced our target price in Kinnevik to SEK100 to reflect macroeconomic headwinds, but remain positive ahead of Cristina Stenbeck’s return as chair; 3) we cut our VEF target price to SEK2.5 on FX movements and see re-rating potential from e.g. ongoing buybacks; and 4) we lowered our target price in Flerie to SEK57 given worsening funding ...

Good Q1, but heading for deceleration

Telia (Neutral, TP: SEK 37, +5%) Q1 25: Impressive EBITDA acceleratio...

Telia has reported a good set of results, with SR, EBITDA, capex and all-in FCF all better than consensus expectations. The company sounded a note of caution on the call that Q1 Group trends were better than we should expect for the full year; having EBITDA and FCF in the bag already is a good thing, but full year guidance has been reiterated not raised.

Small adj. EBITDA beat, unchanged guidance

Up to BUY - excessive share price fall

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Time to revisit

The unfolding trade war has led us to cut our global 2025–2027e demand and trim our spot price estimates. The negative price effect is partly countered by reduced mortality boosting volumes and lowering costs, leading to net EPS cuts of 11–2%. Given the sector’s solid track record in adapting to past crises and recent share-price declines, we see a significantly improved risk/reward and have a positive stance on the sector. We have upgraded Mowi, Bakkafrost, and Grieg Seafood to BUY (HOLD).

Heads-up for report 24 April

Nordic Semiconductor (Buy, TP: NOK174.00) - Near-term momentum likely ...

While the effects of trade tensions and tariff upheaval remain uncertain, our discussions with industry sources suggest strong, improving order momentum in Q1. Moreover, we expect the recently announced 90-day tariff pause to drive pull-forward of US imports. This has led us to shift our estimates from H2 towards H1. Beyond tariff-induced pull-ins, Dexcom channel replenishment dynamics remain one company-specific source of uncertainty to watch, while we estimate a limited effect. We remain sligh...

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK38.50) - Cost reductions visible in Q1e

Telia’s Q1 report is due at 07:00 CET on 24 April. Due to a changed reporting structure, there is no meaningful consensus. However, we believe our forecast will be about in-line with an updated consensus. We see an acceleration of EBITDA growth to >5% following a personnel reduction. We reiterate our BUY and raise the target price to SEK38.50 (38).

Revised estimates due to divisional split

Norway: Government suggests substantial changes to farming regulations

Q1'25 trading update: EBIT -11% vs cons

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we are encouraged by the return of Cristina Stenbeck as chair of Kinnevik, and believe it could result in a lower discount to NAV; 2) VEF completed a milestone partial exit of Juspay at a 37% IRR, putting it on track to pay down debt and repurchase shares at a 50% discount to NAV in the near term; and 3) for Industrivärden, we recently reiterated our HOLD and lowered our target price to SEK345 (400), as we see risk to the earnings outlook of its portfolio com...

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.