Up to BUY - excessive share price fall

Important year coming up

Entering 2025 with a strong portfolio

Expectations are probably too high

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

Multiconsult (Hold, TP: NOK190.00) - Q1 ‘bridge day’ risk

While Q1 officially had 63 working days, we expect revenue output to reflect c61 days given the two widely taken ‘bridge days’ at the start of January. We thus see some consensus EPS risk ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:00 CET on 13 May). Given our below consensus forecasts and a lower peer-based valuation, we reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to NOK190 (210).

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK32.00) - Unit sales in line, EPS still tra...

Today’s Q1 trading update showed a unit sales recovery broadly in line with our forecast. However, while starts were above our forecast, our 2025e is unchanged at 700 units. Despite KPIs seemingly recovering as expected, we still see downside risk for the stock given the long lead time to profit and dividends and as the valuation looks high relative to peers. Ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:00 CET on 21 May), we forecast marginally negative Q1 EPS on few deliveries. We reiterate our SELL and ...

Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK160.00) - Seasonal low despite mild winter

Q1 is typically the low season for Veidekke on Nordic winter effects and a seasonal EBIT margin decline in the Infrastructure division (including asphalt). Despite the mild winter in the Nordics in Q1, we expect the positive impact to be limited as weather effects tend to affect Q4 more than Q1. We expect zero EPS for Q1. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK160 target price.

Sales as expected, deliveries above

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK120.00) - Q1 results are secondary

Given the E4 Bypass Stockholm project cancellation and the filing of fraud charges with the Swedish police by Trafikverket, our focus will be on the company’s position in Sweden, not its Q1 results. AF Gruppen has released limited details on the Trafikverket situation and has denied the charges. Ahead of the results (due at 07:00 CET on 15 May), we are below consensus on Q1e EBIT, despite being at the consensus midpoint. We reiterate our SELL and NOK120 target price.

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK120.00) - The ripple effects could be worse

After the Swedish Transport Administration on 19 February stated it was terminating its contract with AF Gruppen for the ongoing E4 Bypass Stockholm project – pointing to contract violations so serious that it intends to file police charges – we have eliminated the order from our backlog and cut our 2025e EPS by c5%. However, if found guilty of the violations in the legal process, we see even greater downside risk that in a worst-case scenario could include the company being excluded from public...

Higher uncertainty — down to HOLD

Large contract termination and serious allegations

Starting to show its true earnings power

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK120.00) - Too-high valuation and expectations

AF Gruppen reported Q4 revenue and EBIT above well our forecasts and Bloomberg consensus. Given the gross figures were boosted by minority share of profits and IFRIC15 accounting effects, the adj. EPS was still just 2% above our estimate and 7% above Infront consensus. We have raised our EPS for 2025e by c5% and 2026e by c4%. As we publish our 2027 forecasts, we have rolled forward our valuation, and thus have raised our target price to NOK120 (115). We reiterate our SELL.

Selvaag Bolig ASA: 5 directors

Five Directors at Selvaag Bolig ASA sold 294,695 shares at between 36.840NOK and 37.020NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over ...

Multiconsult ASA: 1 director

A director at Multiconsult ASA bought 13,973 shares at 184.565NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cle...

Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK160.00) - DPS beat, but valuation getting fair

The reported Q4 EPS was 5% below our forecast, but 3% above when adjusted for a Swedish goodwill write-down. The company proposed a NOK9 DPS for 2024, given its strong net cash position. We have made minor forecast changes, but as we publish 2027 estimates, we have rolled forward our valuation, and raised our target price to NOK160 (155) but downgraded to HOLD (BUY).

Sweden and Betonmast surprises on the upside

Better orders