Jm Ab (Sell, TP: SEK155.00) - Near-term in line, long-term below

Ahead of JM’s Q3 results (due at c08:00 CET on 22 October), we are broadly in line with Infront consensus on EBIT (slightly above on units started and sold). However, we find consensus too bullish on the speed and strength of a P&L recovery longer-term (2026e), and reiterate our SELL and SEK155 target price.

Bonava (Hold, TP: SEK8.50) - Q3 likely to be weak

We expect a KPI recovery for housing starts and sales from a low base; however, with few completions, we forecast a weak Q3 EPS of SEK-0.42 (results due at c07:00 CET on 24 October). We have cut our 2024e EPS after Bonava announced a SEK60m impairment in a deal with OBOS in Gothenburg, and we see scope for more impairments with a potential Finnish operation divestment. We reiterate our HOLD on the low valuation but few near-term catalysts, but have reduced our target price to SEK8.5 (9).

NRC Group (Hold, TP: NOK3.20) - No EBIT margin catalysts in sight

We believe NRC remains a high-risk EBIT margin recovery case (with potentially high returns). However, based on the 2024 guidance and its Q1s being low season from winter effects, we expect no signs of an EBIT margin recovery until Q2 2025 at the earliest. Also, given NRC’s track record, numerous quarters of profit recovery may be needed for the share to reprice. In an M&A scenario, due to its low EV/sales, we could see upside potential, but this is not our base case. On our updated forecasts (n...

Nordic shorts: H&M and highlighted ideas

Avg. short interest (top 100) of 5.4% vs. 5.3% one month ago. Highlight: H&M

NCC AB: 1 director

A director at NCC AB bought 675,000 shares at 156.330SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

Besqab (Hold, TP: SEK28.00) - Slowly moving in the right direction

Q2 was neutral, with POC-based adj. EPS of SEK-0.1 in line with our forecast. In our view, one positive was the 73 units sold in Q2 (12 in Q2 2023), with Besqab starting sales for five new projects. We have made limited estimate revisions. On an IFRS basis, we expect weak and volatile 2024–2025 earnings until merger synergies materialise, and ramped-up project starts from 2025. A key factor to monitor is the supply of used homes, which likely needs to be absorbed prior to a recovery within new h...

Betonmast Sweden soon to be history

NOK 100m loss-making production left in Betonmast Sweden. >70% of Sweden revenue has ~6% margin. BUY, TP NOK 150 (155).

LTM FCF/sh NOK 12.6

Building a stronger organisation

Potential equity issue as Meråkerbanen hampers liquidity. FY'25e target: Adj. EBIT >NOK 140m. Long-term targets reiterated: NOK 10bn in revenues and 5% margin.

NRC Group (Hold, TP: NOK6.00) - High-risk assessment proved right

After highlighting the high risk in NRC for the past few years, this stance was supported by the Q2 report. The underlying results were broadly in line with July’s profit warning, but the company also made some additional goodwill writedowns and indicated a weaker 2024 outlook. Moreover, it announced an equity issue but not the terms, prompting us to be concerned about the dilution risk. We have thus downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to NOK6 (14) – awaiting more clarity on the te...

Meråkerbanen hampering liquidity

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK100.00) - Profit warning: EPS and DPS cut

A profit warning published after market close on 22 August included a NOK240m project writedown in the Offshore division, and guidance for divisional net profit just in the black in Q2. As a result, we have cut our group 2024e EPS by 23.4% and DPS from NOK7 to NOK5. We reiterate our SELL, and believe the size of the 2025e P/E premium to peers is unwarranted given the sector risk (AF Gruppen is not immune, as evidenced by recent project writedowns). Our target price remains NOK100, as we focus on...

PW: NOK 240m project write-down in Offshore

JM AB: 1 director

A director at JM AB bought 1,600 shares at 205.800SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing...

Veidekke (Buy, TP: NOK135.00) - Mixed Q2, 2024–2026e EPS raised

The Q2 results were mixed, with revenues and order intake below our forecasts, EBITDA in line, and EBIT and EPS above. We have reduced our 2024–2026e revenue, but raised EPS by c2–3% on strong EBIT margins. We reiterate our BUY and NOK135 target price.

Only Building Sweden left to turn

Asphalt profitability back to normal levels

YIT (Sell, TP: EUR1.40) - Hope and leverage

While the equity burn continued in Q2, the adjusted figures were broadly in line with our forecasts. YIT still expects an improvement on a market recovery; however, as its most recent bond issue shows, it also faces rising financing costs. We believe a Mall of Tripla divestment would help matters, but this could be below book value given market situation. We reiterate our SELL and EUR1.4 target price.

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK30.00) - EPS beat, but DPS delay

Assisted by two divestments, but also a solid underlying EBIT margin on completed developments, Q2 EPS beat our forecast and Bloomberg consensus. However, given its liquidity needs, Selvaag Bolig decided not to pay out a DPS for H1, and stated that it would assess a 2024 DPS after Q4. We continue to expect an improving market, but find the share price too high on 2024–2026e P/E, and reiterate our SELL and NOK30 target price.

Short-term headwinds, long-term value