Skanska (Buy, TP: SEK270.00) - Q1e risk, but SOTP upside potential

With only a minor SEK110m divestment in ‘Central’ in the quarter, we see downside risk to consensus for Q1. However, supported by a solid balance sheet and investments in Commercial Development (CD), Investment Properties (IP) and Residential Development (RD), we see solid upside potential from an SOTP perspective, and believe capital releases remain Skanska’s main potential share price catalyst. Due to FX, we have lowered our 2025–2027e EPS by c2% on average, and our target price to SEK270 (280...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK220.00) - Target price raised on project gains

Having started and sold another commercial development, with an expected 2027 delivery, we have raised our 2027e EPS by c8%. Given NCC’s project development planned for 2027–2028e, we believe the stock offers an attractive EPS growth profile. However, similar to peers, Q1 is likely to be a loss-making quarter due to Nordic winter effects. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK220 (200).

Peab (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - Seasonal losses expected

Given Peab’s large Civil Engineering and Industry (including Asphalt) operations, it tends to report a loss in Q1. We are broadly in line with consensus for Q1e EPS and order intake, although we are below for 2025–2027e. We believe there is a better risk/reward in peers, and reiterate our HOLD and SEK85 target price.

Skanska AB: 1 director

A director at Skanska AB maiden bought 4,000 shares at 22.777USD and the significance rating of the trade was 72/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK32.00) - Unit sales in line, EPS still tra...

Today’s Q1 trading update showed a unit sales recovery broadly in line with our forecast. However, while starts were above our forecast, our 2025e is unchanged at 700 units. Despite KPIs seemingly recovering as expected, we still see downside risk for the stock given the long lead time to profit and dividends and as the valuation looks high relative to peers. Ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:00 CET on 21 May), we forecast marginally negative Q1 EPS on few deliveries. We reiterate our SELL and ...

Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK160.00) - Seasonal low despite mild winter

Q1 is typically the low season for Veidekke on Nordic winter effects and a seasonal EBIT margin decline in the Infrastructure division (including asphalt). Despite the mild winter in the Nordics in Q1, we expect the positive impact to be limited as weather effects tend to affect Q4 more than Q1. We expect zero EPS for Q1. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK160 target price.

Sales as expected, deliveries above

YIT (Sell, TP: EUR1.75) - No KPI or EBIT recovery in Q1e

The Finnish residential and commercial real estate markets continue to show no sign of recovery in Q1. While we expect the CEE division to recover, given its minor size, we still forecast group EBIT of zero for Q1. We will look for commentary on the housing shortage and an expected recovery on lower interest rates – a recurring topic the past for three years. We find consensus too bullish and reiterate our SELL and EUR1.75 target price.

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK120.00) - Q1 results are secondary

Given the E4 Bypass Stockholm project cancellation and the filing of fraud charges with the Swedish police by Trafikverket, our focus will be on the company’s position in Sweden, not its Q1 results. AF Gruppen has released limited details on the Trafikverket situation and has denied the charges. Ahead of the results (due at 07:00 CET on 15 May), we are below consensus on Q1e EBIT, despite being at the consensus midpoint. We reiterate our SELL and NOK120 target price.

Bonava (Hold, TP: SEK10.00) - New but recycled targets

Bonava hosted a CMD on 27 March. While focus was on the expected market recovery, it announced ‘new’ financial targets (recycled old ones), in which the EBIT margin and ROE targets refer to new POC accounting starting in 2025, rather than formal IFRS figures. While recovery was the underlying theme, we do not expect it to be reflected in the Q1 results. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK10 target price.

CMD with many positives

Bonava (Hold, TP: SEK10.00) - Another chance to convince

Bonava is due to provide an update on its business plan and strategy at its CMD in Stockholm (27 March). So far, it has not met the financial or operational targets presented at its last CMD, and we note its history of changing its targets; we believe it will be down to results to convince. With our expectation of negative EPS for 2025–2026, and a potential recovery in 2027, we continue to find a better risk/reward elsewhere in the sector. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK10 target price.

Setup too great to ignore

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK120.00) - The ripple effects could be worse

After the Swedish Transport Administration on 19 February stated it was terminating its contract with AF Gruppen for the ongoing E4 Bypass Stockholm project – pointing to contract violations so serious that it intends to file police charges – we have eliminated the order from our backlog and cut our 2025e EPS by c5%. However, if found guilty of the violations in the legal process, we see even greater downside risk that in a worst-case scenario could include the company being excluded from public...

Higher uncertainty — down to HOLD

Large contract termination and serious allegations

Besqab (Hold, TP: SEK27.00) - Early signs of improving market

Q4 POC-based adj. EPS of SEK0.4 was above our forecast of SEK-0.4, and Besqab started 108 units net, just above our estimate of 101. We maintain our unit starts forecasts, but have raised our 2025e adj. EPS due to project delays pushing more completions from 2024, and 2026–2027e on timing effects. However, we expect 2024–2026 IFRS-based earnings to be weak and volatile until merger synergies materialise, and a ramp up in project starts in 2025e. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK27 target price.

Starting to show its true earnings power

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK120.00) - Too-high valuation and expectations

AF Gruppen reported Q4 revenue and EBIT above well our forecasts and Bloomberg consensus. Given the gross figures were boosted by minority share of profits and IFRIC15 accounting effects, the adj. EPS was still just 2% above our estimate and 7% above Infront consensus. We have raised our EPS for 2025e by c5% and 2026e by c4%. As we publish our 2027 forecasts, we have rolled forward our valuation, and thus have raised our target price to NOK120 (115). We reiterate our SELL.

Selvaag Bolig ASA: 5 directors

Five Directors at Selvaag Bolig ASA sold 294,695 shares at between 36.840NOK and 37.020NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over ...