Up to BUY - excessive share price fall

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK120.00) - Q1 results are secondary

Given the E4 Bypass Stockholm project cancellation and the filing of fraud charges with the Swedish police by Trafikverket, our focus will be on the company’s position in Sweden, not its Q1 results. AF Gruppen has released limited details on the Trafikverket situation and has denied the charges. Ahead of the results (due at 07:00 CET on 15 May), we are below consensus on Q1e EBIT, despite being at the consensus midpoint. We reiterate our SELL and NOK120 target price.

Hexagon Composites (Buy, TP: NOK38.00) - Cautious on near-term outlook

We are significantly below consensus on Q1e EBITDA, owing to the challenging US truck market, with the uncertainty in demand, costs, and regulations resulting in lower demand for new trucks and technology shifts taking longer. With most of its business in the US, we consider Hexagon Composites vulnerable. As a result, we have lowered our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 9–15%. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK38 (50) on the weaker near-term outlook.

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK120.00) - The ripple effects could be worse

After the Swedish Transport Administration on 19 February stated it was terminating its contract with AF Gruppen for the ongoing E4 Bypass Stockholm project – pointing to contract violations so serious that it intends to file police charges – we have eliminated the order from our backlog and cut our 2025e EPS by c5%. However, if found guilty of the violations in the legal process, we see even greater downside risk that in a worst-case scenario could include the company being excluded from public...

Renewable Weekly – 20 February 2025

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Higher uncertainty — down to HOLD

Large contract termination and serious allegations

Starting to show its true earnings power

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK120.00) - Too-high valuation and expectations

AF Gruppen reported Q4 revenue and EBIT above well our forecasts and Bloomberg consensus. Given the gross figures were boosted by minority share of profits and IFRIC15 accounting effects, the adj. EPS was still just 2% above our estimate and 7% above Infront consensus. We have raised our EPS for 2025e by c5% and 2026e by c4%. As we publish our 2027 forecasts, we have rolled forward our valuation, and thus have raised our target price to NOK120 (115). We reiterate our SELL.

Energy Morning - 14 February 2025

Sweden and Betonmast surprises on the upside

Hexagon Composites (Buy, TP: NOK50.00) - In a transition year

2025 looks set to be a transition year, with a slower roll-out of natural gas trucks and low Mobile Pipeline activity hampering H1. Thus, we have cut our 2025e EBITDA by 24%, to the top of the guidance of NOK640m–740m that we consider to be conservative. Seeing the long-term investment case as still intact and hearing welcomed commentary on no further financial support to Hexagon Purus, we consider yesterday’s sell-off to be an overreaction. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to...

Strong finish, but soft 2025 outlook