reports
- ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
- Fredrik Stensved
- Markus Henriksson
- Viktor Stenlöf
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
DIOS DIOS FASTIGHETER AB
EAST EASTNINE AB
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
A1W9VK PLATZER FASTIGHETER HOLDING AB CLASS B
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
STEF B STENDOERREN FASTIGHETER AB CLASS B
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
NYF NYFOSA AB
FAST A FASTPARTNER AB
K2A B K2A KNAUST & ANDERSSON FASTIGHETER AB
KLARA B KLARABO SVERIGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORG FASTIGHETER AB(PUBL)
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB
SLP B SWEDISH LOGISTIC PROPERTY AB
FASTAT-SE FASTATOR
LOGI.B-SE LOGISTEA AB
- Simen Mortensen
Q1 reporting season kicks off
Q1 reporting season kicked off this week, with results from Nyfosa, Entra, Wallenstam, Fabege, KMC Properties, Pandox, and Catena. In other news, Public Property Invest is to be listed on the Oslo stock exchange on 29 April. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.75% for 2024e and 5.04% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Simen Mortensen
KMC Properties (Hold, TP: NOK8.00) - Changing of the guard
With the stock trading close to NAV levels after the most recent rally, and the CEO, CFO and COO all leaving within a quarter, we have downgraded to HOLD (BUY). The Q1 results were broadly in line, bar slightly higher admin costs. Following the company’s updated interest-rate hedging, and higher market rates, we have reduced our 2024–2025e FFO by c7%. We have raised our target price to NOK8 (7.5) on updated NAV forecasts.
- ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
- Bengt Jonassen
- Njål Kleiven
- Simen Mortensen
Multiconsult (Buy, TP: NOK160.00) - On course for Q1e consensus beat
While Easter falling in Q1 is set to lead to a YOY EBIT drop on fewer working days, we expect a consensus beat, assuming a continuation of Q4’s high billing ratio. With property markets still weak, the recent EPBD revision is likely to represent a long-term boost for the company. We reiterate our BUY and NOK160 target price.
- Simen Mortensen
EPBD the big story this week
The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. In other news, KMC Properties bought a new asset and appointed an interim CEO, JM got a new CEO, while Castellum announced a divestment and new leases, and Atrium Ljungberg kicked off Q1 reporting season. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.74% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2...
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Simen Mortensen
Renovation rules now a reality
The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to incorporate the provisions into their national legislation. While Q1 is Nordic construction’s low season due to winter effects, we see some downside risk to Q1e consensus and longer-term to 2024–2026e EBIT on lower development gains. We recommend a stock-picking approa...
- Simen Mortensen
NRC Group (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - New CEO’s plan in focus
NRC’s Q1s tend to be its low season, due to the Nordic winter effects, and we expect a seasonal loss in EBIT (results due at c07:00 CET on 25 May). However, announced order intake has been strong, including the order termination and excluding the EUR344m light rail alliance contract in Finland. In conjunction with the Q1 results, NRC is due to host a CMD, where the new CEO will present the new group strategy. We continue to see strong upside potential on an EBIT margin recovery and reiterate our...
- Simen Mortensen
Fully valued near-term
We maintain a neutral sector stance, but see near-term setbacks and consider risks tilted to the downside near-term due to strong sector performance in the past month, while market interest rates have risen. We expect two years of zero NAV growth, on average, due to yield expansion, and the sector theme to be deleveraging, with limited capex. We see few potential company-specific catalysts, leaving share prices largely driven by macro factors. We consider the sector fully valued near-term, at an...
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Simen Mortensen
Vacancy uptick in Stockholm
This week, Citymark announced vacancies in the Stockholm office market are now higher than during the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Selvaag Bolig (SELL, TP NOK25) released KPIs for Q1, where unsold inventory was at an all-time high. Norwegian house prices rose 0.9% in March and 5.9% YTD. Entra announced leases. Corem announced that it aims to issue bonds. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.62% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Simen Mortensen
Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK25.00) - Inventory spike set to delay prof...
In its Q1 KPI update, sold homes were marginally above our forecast, helped by sales to its main owner. However, of the 236 completed units, only 179 were delivered to clients. Unsold inventory climbed to an all-time high of 126 units at end-Q1 (ATH), and 56 completed sold homes are pending delivery. Due to the inventory build-up, we have cut our 2024e EPS by c29%, but have raised 2025e EPS by c42.5%. We reiterate our SELL and NOK25 target price.
- Simen Mortensen
Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK120.00) - Low season ahead
Due to Nordic winter effects, Q1 typically marks low season for Veidekke. We are below consensus on Q1e EBIT, forecasting a low-season nominal loss. We expect reduced long-term civil engineering spending in Norway following publication of the new National Transport Plan (NTP), but with a weaker NOK, our 2024–2026e EPS are broadly unchanged. We have raised our target price to NOK120 (115) to reflect higher peer multiples, but reiterate our HOLD.
- Simen Mortensen
AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK100.00) - Expectations look too high
We continue to see downside risk to consensus, both short-term ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:00 CET on 15 May) and longer-term (2024–2026e). After a 2023 EBIT margin of 2.5%, consensus is for 4.8% in 2024 and 5.2% in 2025. We believe this is too optimistic, and reiterate our SELL. However, we have raised our target price to NOK100 (95) on increased peer valuation.
- Simen Mortensen
Transactions, debt repurchase, and National Transport Plan
This week, Corem, Catena and Vasakronan (which re-entered the M&A arena after a more than 5-year absence) announced property transactions, SBB saw its share price rise by 29% on the week after retiring long-term debt, and the Norwegian government unveiled a somewhat smaller budget in its latest National Transport Plan (NTP), with a weak read-across to the local construction and consultancy sector, in our view The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.54% for 2024e a...
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Simen Mortensen
Insider transactions, SBB rating lowered and lease contracts
There were several insider transactions this week. Also, SBB offered to buy back certain hybrid and senior bonds, and credit agencies lowered their ratings in response. Corem announced new leases, and a large Norwegian real estate syndicate was taken over by one of its bondholders. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.60% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Simen Mortensen
Modest 2024–2026 growth outlook
We expect flattish 2024–2025 NAVps growth for our Swedish coverage, due to too-low asset writedowns in 2023, but 7% in 2026e assuming stabilised yields. We forecast a 2024–2025 FFOps CAGR of 5%, held back by: 1) maturing interest rate hedges; 2) expected rental growth slow-down; and 3) deleveraging hurting investment capacity. However, we consider this priced in at a sector NAV median discount of 27%. We maintain a neutral sector stance, and our top picks are Catena, Castellum, Nyfosa and Pandox...
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
NRC Group ASA: 2 directors
A director at NRC Group ASA maiden bought 9,430 shares at 10.800NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...
- Simen Mortensen
Last Q4 report and other updates
Last Q4 report and other updates Q4 reporting season for our covered names concluded this week with SBB’s results. Citycon has taken over Kista and issued a bond, and we cut our target price. Balder bought back hybrid bonds, Nyfosa is evaluating strategic options for its Söderport holding, and Pandox agreed to sell DoubleTree by Hilton Montreal. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.85% for 2024e and 5.13% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Simen Mortensen
NRC Group (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - Q4 volume but not EBIT beat
Q4 was the first full quarter under new CEO Anders Gustafsson. Revenue, order intake, and order backlog beat our forecasts, but EBIT did not. The company is set to present a strategy update at a CMD in May (date to be announced), where we will look for further comments on how it intends to reach its long-term 5%+ EBIT margin target. We still see a high-risk margin recovery case, with ample upside potential if successful. We have pushed our recovery expectations back by one year and cut our 2024–...
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