Olav Thon (Buy, TP: NOK265.00) - Strong and stable

There were no surprises in the Q1 results. Olav Thon remains one of the most attractively valued stocks in our Nordic real estate coverage, as well as having among the strongest balance sheets. We have made limited estimate changes following the report, and reiterate our BUY, while we have raised our target price to NOK265 (250).

Hurt by the usual suspects

Q1: Operating PTP NOK 173m vs. cons NOK 230m. Our equity case is broadly unchanged. BUY, TP NOK 155.

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK100.00) - Streak of consensus misses continue...

EBIT missed consensus for the ninth consecutive quarter in Q1. While the results were good relative to peers, we remain concerned about elevated consensus expectations and the high market valuation. We continue to see downside risk to consensus, and reiterate our SELL and NOK100 target price.

Another good performance and stable values

Below expectations driven by the Betonmast units

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Performance and valuation data for Nordic real estate stocks as of 10 May 2024.

Swedish policy rate cut, an upgrade and a downgrade

Sweden’s Riksbank cut the policy rate this week to 3.75% (4.0%); our estimates are based on another four cuts by end-2025. During the week we upgraded Veidekke to BUY, downgraded Castellum to HOLD, and reiterated our HOLD on Kojamo and SELL on Hufvudstaden and Sagax. The average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.40% for 2024e and 4.79% for 2025e.

Multiconsult ASA: 1 director

A director at Multiconsult ASA bought 1,800 shares at 149.500NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...

Multiconsult (Buy, TP: NOK165.00) - Above consensus, in line with DNBe

Q1 EBITA was 11% above company-compiled consensus and in line with our estimate. Organic growth was 9.8% and the order backlog increased 9% YOY, outperforming our estimate by 5%. The billing ratio was better than we expected, but the rate was the below our forecast. We have made minor forecast changes following the Q1 results, mainly on updated KPIs. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK165 (160).

Veidekke (Buy, TP: NOK125.00) - Low-season beat, and raised EPS

Veidekke avoided the usual Q1 seasonal loss, reporting EBIT of zero, beating our estimate and Infront consensus. Order intake was also strong, and broadly in line with expectations. Following the results, we have increased our 2024–2026e revenue by c2% and EBIT by c3.5–4%, but raised our EPS by c8–9% after also increasing our financial income estimates. In turn, we have raised our target price to NOK125 (120), and upgraded Veidekke to BUY (HOLD).

Operational quality not reflected in the share

Q1: PTP NOK 25m vs. consensus NOK -14m. Loss-making revenue in the backlog the lowest in 9 years. DPS = EPS = 8-9% dividend yield. BUY.

Running faster than ever

Q1: EBITA of NOK 137m vs. consensus NOK 123m. Could add +20% to EBIT through M&A. Trading at 15-20% discount to Nordic peers. BUY.

EBITA 11% above - billing ratio at ATH

Better than expected and improvement y-o-y

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Performance and valuation data for Nordic real estate stocks as of 3 May 2024.

Q1 reporting continues

This week, Castellum and Balder reported Q1 results, Wihlborgs announced a new lease, and SBB corrected 2023 profits and dissolved Unobo. Norges Bank has signalled interest rates might stay higher for longer. K2A has halted preference dividend payments. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.69% for 2024e and 4.97% for 2025e.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Performance and valuation data for Nordic real estate stocks as of 26 April 2024.

Q1 reporting season kicks off

Q1 reporting season kicked off this week, with results from Nyfosa, Entra, Wallenstam, Fabege, KMC Properties, Pandox, and Catena. In other news, Public Property Invest is to be listed on the Oslo stock exchange on 29 April. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.75% for 2024e and 5.04% for 2025e.

Entra (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - Continued asset value decline

Entra reported weaker underlying Q1 results than we expected, as well as still-declining asset values (-2.5% QOQ) due to higher yield valuations. On increased market interest rates, we have cut our 2024–2026e FFO by c12–16%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to NOK105 (115).

Not what we wanted, but 100 is the new 80

Weak report on most metrics. Large long-term potential. BUY, TP of NOK 135.