Record-high order intake

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Q1 in line with our expectations

Q1 is low season for NCC, but we believe the EBIT miss versus Infront consensus was likely due to some consensus participants overlooking the early Easter effect. With the Q1 results broadly in line with our estimates, we have made only minor forecast changes, and reiterate our BUY and SEK150 target price.

Miss in seasonally slow quarter

YIT (Sell, TP: EUR1.40) - Q1 misses on EBIT and KPIs

EBIT of EUR-8m was below our estimate and Vara consensus, and unit sales missed too. The inventory of unsold completed homes for sale continued to increase. The company states it will continue to focus on its capital releases, with sale of its stake in the Tripla shopping mall and reducing unsold inventory as the major moving parts. However, YIT’s markets are weak and its debt remains elevated. We reiterate our SELL and EUR1.4 target price, while we believe new equity might be also needed.

Rebound will take a few years

Minor changes to underlying estimates. Sold units lagging peers. Downside risk to consensus in 2025/2026.

Improving market - BUY the leader

EBIT down 4-1%. Uptick in sold units to continue in Q2'24e. Housing market rebound in the making - BUY

Bonava (Hold, TP: SEK9.50) - No KPI recovery in Q1

As expected, Bonava reported close to zero EBIT and EPS. Moreover, the leading KPIs for starts and sales were weaker than expected, and we have cut our 2026e EPS. We continue to expect close to zero EPS in 2024–2026e, but with a P/B of c0.4x and refinancing in place with the Q1 equity issue, we believe the negatives are reflected in the share price. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK9.5 (8.5).

JM AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at JM AB bought/maiden bought 1,550 shares at between 183.170SEK and 184.000SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors ov...

All starts in the Baltics and Germany

Jm Ab (Sell, TP: SEK155.00) - Q1 EPS miss

Higher tax costs than forecast meant Q1 EPS missed expectations. Sales of new homes were broadly in line with our estimate – but starts were below, prompting us to cut our 2024e EPS by c19% and 2025e by c5%. However, expecting a catch-up effect, we have raised our 2026e EPS by c16%. In our view, the valuation is already pricing in a market recovery, while we still see a risk of setbacks, mainly from fewer and slower interest rate cuts, and we see a better risk/reward elsewhere in the sector. We ...

Renovation rules now a reality

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to incorporate the provisions into their national legislation. While Q1 is Nordic construction’s low season due to winter effects, we see some downside risk to Q1e consensus and longer-term to 2024–2026e EBIT on lower development gains. We recommend a stock-picking approa...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Q1 was cold

With a harsh Nordic winter and Easter falling in Q1, we expect a larger seasonal loss than consensus (results due at c07:00 CET on 3 May). We expect NCC to record one commercial property divestment of SEK530m, but due the level of announced orders, we have reduced our 2024–2026e revenue and EPS and expect Q1 order intake below Infront consensus. We reiterate our BUY and NOK150 target price.

Skanska (Buy, TP: SEK225.00) - Solid Q1 order intake expected

With no asset divestments of Commercial Development (CD) projects, we expect Q1 group EBIT to be below Infront consensus (results due at c07:30 CET on 8 May). However, with the strong announced orders, we expect a beat on order intake. KPIs in Residential Development (RD) are likely to be weak, we believe, but up from the all-time lows last year. We reiterate our BUY and SOTP-based target price of SEK225.

Peab (Sell, TP: SEK58.00) - Consensus too bullish, too soon

With solid announced orders in Q1, we expect order intake above consensus, but EBIT below due to the cold Nordic winter and early Easter (results due 6 May (time TBA)). We also believe consensus is too bullish on the speed of Property Development’s recovery. We find the recent share price rally an overreaction and have downgraded to SELL (HOLD), with a raised target price of SEK58 (52), reflecting our updated estimates and peer valuation.

NRC Group (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - New CEO’s plan in focus

NRC’s Q1s tend to be its low season, due to the Nordic winter effects, and we expect a seasonal loss in EBIT (results due at c07:00 CET on 25 May). However, announced order intake has been strong, including the order termination and excluding the EUR344m light rail alliance contract in Finland. In conjunction with the Q1 results, NRC is due to host a CMD, where the new CEO will present the new group strategy. We continue to see strong upside potential on an EBIT margin recovery and reiterate our...

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK25.00) - Inventory spike set to delay prof...

In its Q1 KPI update, sold homes were marginally above our forecast, helped by sales to its main owner. However, of the 236 completed units, only 179 were delivered to clients. Unsold inventory climbed to an all-time high of 126 units at end-Q1 (ATH), and 56 completed sold homes are pending delivery. Due to the inventory build-up, we have cut our 2024e EPS by c29%, but have raised 2025e EPS by c42.5%. We reiterate our SELL and NOK25 target price.

Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK120.00) - Low season ahead

Due to Nordic winter effects, Q1 typically marks low season for Veidekke. We are below consensus on Q1e EBIT, forecasting a low-season nominal loss. We expect reduced long-term civil engineering spending in Norway following publication of the new National Transport Plan (NTP), but with a weaker NOK, our 2024–2026e EPS are broadly unchanged. We have raised our target price to NOK120 (115) to reflect higher peer multiples, but reiterate our HOLD.

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK100.00) - Expectations look too high

We continue to see downside risk to consensus, both short-term ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:00 CET on 15 May) and longer-term (2024–2026e). After a 2023 EBIT margin of 2.5%, consensus is for 4.8% in 2024 and 5.2% in 2025. We believe this is too optimistic, and reiterate our SELL. However, we have raised our target price to NOK100 (95) on increased peer valuation.

Jm Ab (Sell, TP: SEK155.00) - Hockey-stick recovery unlikely

The share price has rallied on the peak interest rate narrative, improved consumer sentiment and short covering, but new housing sales remain weak QTD. We expect Q1 profit to miss Infront consensus on price cuts, but starts to be above (results due at 08:00 CET on 23 April). Overall, we believe the share price has run too far ahead of the recovery and profit lead times are much longer than reflected in market expectations. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to SEK155 (130).

YIT Oyj: 1 director

A director at YIT Oyj maiden bought 12,000 shares at 1.666EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...