Fastighets AB Balder: 1 director

A director at Fastighets AB Balder sold 2,339,268 shares at 75.620SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 76/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years...

Hurt by the usual suspects

Q1: Operating PTP NOK 173m vs. cons NOK 230m. Our equity case is broadly unchanged. BUY, TP NOK 155.

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK100.00) - Streak of consensus misses continue...

EBIT missed consensus for the ninth consecutive quarter in Q1. While the results were good relative to peers, we remain concerned about elevated consensus expectations and the high market valuation. We continue to see downside risk to consensus, and reiterate our SELL and NOK100 target price.

Below expectations driven by the Betonmast units

Latour Investment AB: 1 director

A director at Latour Investment AB bought 6,600 shares at 286.110SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 74/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years ...

Nykode Therapeutics (Buy, TP: NOK31.00) - Q1 report and Merck collabor...

While the Q1 report contained no large surprises (the expected upcoming events near-term seem on track), the company also announced a collaboration with MSD (Merck) to evaluate VB10.16 in combination with KEYTRUDA (pembrolizumab) in patients with HPV16-associated high-risk locally advanced cervical cancer. Management is due to present the results at a live-streamed webcast at 16:00 CET today.

Q1 report: building the platform

Swedish policy rate cut, an upgrade and a downgrade

Sweden’s Riksbank cut the policy rate this week to 3.75% (4.0%); our estimates are based on another four cuts by end-2025. During the week we upgraded Veidekke to BUY, downgraded Castellum to HOLD, and reiterated our HOLD on Kojamo and SELL on Hufvudstaden and Sagax. The average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.40% for 2024e and 4.79% for 2025e.

E-commerce traffic - April 2024

We have evaluated Similarweb data for April. Aggregated traffic to e-com sites up 4% y-o-y. Rugvista traffic growth continues, don't fear RVRC's -19% y-o-y.

Millicom (Buy, TP: SEK310.00) - EFCF falling into place

After years of EFCF disappointing, we are even more confident that Millicom can beat its target of USD550m in 2024. On our estimates, the stock is trading at a 15% FCF yield. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK310 (290).

Sparebanken Øst (Hold, TP: NOK53.00) - Strong Q1 and capital position

Boosted by a NOK31m gain from Eksportfinans, further NII expansion and still-modest loan losses, SPOG reported a strong Q1 ROE of ~13% (9% target), despite sustained cost pressure. With lower deposit margins and one fewer interest day more than offset by improved lending margins and solid lending growth, NII rose another 3.8% QOQ. Moreover, given its ample buffer to capital requirements, we see scope for payout ratios to remain near 100% in 2024–2026e. That said, with the stock trading at a 2025...

SpareBank 1 Østlandet (Hold, TP: NOK140.00) - On HOLD after strong Q1

Fuelled by further NII expansion, the tax benefit of customer dividends, strong trading income and low loan losses, SPOL reported a Q1 ROE of 17.4% (>12% target), despite NOK26m of merger-related costs. We have made minor changes to our 2025–2026e EPS and reiterate our NOK140 target price. However, after the recent share price appreciation, we find more attractive risk/reward elsewhere in the sector. Thus, with the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.2x, we have downgraded to HOLD (BUY).

The weekly navigator

In the past week: 1) we hosted an investor lunch with Latour’s CEO Johan Hjertonsson at our Stockholm office; and 2) Webrock Ventures reported its first quarterly results as a listed company, with its sights set on financial self-sufficiency by 2026.

Klaveness Combination Carriers (Buy, TP: NOK137.00) - Harvesting stead...

The Q1 report revealed strong operations to maximise the value of the company’s unique three-legged market position, providing attractive exposure to upside potential in strong shipping markets, while diversifying possible downside risk. Bulkers and tankers are seeing a constructive supply story over the coming years, while regulations monetise KCC’s unrivalled efficiency. Thus, we find KCC remains undervalued and we reiterate our BUY. We have raised our target price to NOK137 (124).

Sampo Oyj (Buy, TP: EUR47.00) - Set for capital release in H2

Despite the harsh winter weather, strong financials helped offset the soft underwriting result. Through continued repricing ahead of claims inflation, If P&C saw the underlying risk ratio improve 0.3%-points and local currency premium growth of 7.6% YOY. With the new solvency model approved, we continue to expect capital distributions in connection with the Q2 report. Based on ~2% positive EPS revisions for 2025–2026e, we reiterate our BUY and EUR47 target price.