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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

ING Benelux Conference London: Aalberts, Arcadis, Azelis, Barco, Basic-Fit, Brunel International, DEME Group, Euronext, Fagron, Heijmans, Kinepolis, Lotus Bakeries, Melexis, Ontex, Randstad, Recticel, SBM Offshore, TKH Group, Van Lanschot Kempen Other company stories - OCI: Divestment of Methanol to Methanex for US$2.05bn, Staffing: US August temp volumes marginally better trend; NFP jobs miss

Cor Kluis
  • Cor Kluis

Van Lanschot Kempen : 1H24 results better, good net inflow in private ...

>Conclusion: 1H24 results better, good net inflow in private banking continuing - In 1H24 the net profit was higher than we expected by better commission income and one-off/volatile items. The better commission income was mostly driven by private clients. In H1 the net inflow in private clients was again better than expected, they also expect a good net inflow in PC Belgium for 2H24. The net interest income was marginally less in 1H24, but the outlook 2H24 was margina...

Jason Kalamboussis
  • Jason Kalamboussis

Van Lanschot Kempen/Unfolding momentum/BUY

VLK results came with a lot more disclosure and showed a strong continued momentum in inflows and fees. Belgium continues to thrive, while the lower margins in the Netherlands are more a reflection of the ROBECO integration and some unfavourable mix, but management is working on new products to enhance those margins. Capital CET1 Basel 4 was stable at c.18.5%, so investors should expect excess capital distributions to the 17.5% target at YE24. Costs will continue to be the focus, and the dip bel...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

AEGON: a story of core vs non-core. Alfen: Arranges 3Q waiver ahead of 4Q strategic update and restructuring plan. Deceuninck: Strong beat on EBITDA, driven by Turkey. Kinepolis: EBITDAL miss on operating leverage, cash flow in line. Van Lanschot Kempen: Strong 1H24 results

Cor Kluis
  • Cor Kluis

Van Lanschot Kempen : Results better in 1H24, good net inflows in priv...

>Conclusion: Results better in 1H24, good net inflow in private banking - The 1H24 results were marginally better than expected as a result of a higher than expected commission income driven by private banking. Also the result from the non-strategic investments were better than expected. We remain positive on VLK.Net profit better in 1H24 - The net profit before minorities was € 75m vs our € 64m (consensus € 64m). This higher result was driven by a hi...

Maureen Schuller ... (+2)
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Bank Brunch/Bond performance, Benelux bank earnings

Unsecured spread retightening prospects best for preferred senior; Benelux bank profitability developments mixed so far; Bank bond performance

Maureen Schuller ... (+2)
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Bank Brunch/Bond performance, Benelux bank earnings

? Unsecured spread retightening prospects best for preferred senior; ? Benelux bank profitability developments mixed so far; ? Bank bond performance

Cor Kluis
  • Cor Kluis

Van Lanschot Kempen : Higher net profit targets, continuing good inflo...

>Conclusion: Higher net profit targets, good inflows, makes up increase our TP - At the CMD VLK increased its financial targets, and we updated our VLK model based on this. With the update targets a) VLK will operate with about € 35m more capital, b) about € 55m excess capital will be returned by end 2024 (3.3% of market cap), and c) we estimate a net profit of € 158m by 2027. VLK has been winning market share with annually net inflow of about +6% the last few years, ...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Van Lanschot Kempen: new targets, payout up to 90%

Cor Kluis
  • Cor Kluis

Van Lanschot Kempen : CMD implicit profit target higher, capital retur...

>Conclusion: CMD profit target higher, capital return more/faster than expected - The VLK cash net profit target after coupons of implicitly > € 143m is mid-single digit higher than our estimates. The capital return policy is somewhat higher than we expected. And the return of excess capital will go faster than expected. We expect share to outperform today. We have an Outperform recommendation on the stock.More ambitious updated financial targets - Th...

Jason Kalamboussis
  • Jason Kalamboussis

Van Lanschot Kempen/Accelerating M&A, increased efficiency/BUY

Van Lanschot Kempen is hosting a CMD on 20 June. We expect it to focus on three angles: (1) growth strategy; with separate reporting for the first time in Belgium and a higher of pace M&A, we expect more granularity on growth and fee margins; (2) costs; we expect the target to be lowered below 70% and adjust our estimates accordingly; and (3) capital; distribution of special dividends to continue at lower levels but conditional on M&A. For 2H24F, we expect a special dividend of €1.50 per share. ...

Marine Leleux ... (+3)
  • Marine Leleux
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Bank Brunch/DNB USD AT1, CRH covered, EU consultation on NBFI, ESG sup...

DNB to replace its AT1, scarcity to continue to support trading levels. CRH in the market with a 12yr covered bond. European Commission launches consultation over macroprudential policies for Non-Bank Financial Intermediaries. YTD bank ESG supply at par to last year but a slower FY expected. Van Lanschot's upgrade at Fitch of limited importance to SB covereds

Marine Leleux ... (+3)
  • Marine Leleux
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Bank Brunch/DNB USD AT1, CRH covered, EU consultation on NBFI, ESG sup...

DNB to replace its AT1, scarcity to continue to support trading levels. CRH in the market with a 12yr covered bond. European Commission launches consultation over macroprudential policies for Non-Bank Financial Intermediaries. YTD bank ESG supply at par to last year but a slower FY expected. Van Lanschot's upgrade at Fitch of limited importance to SB covereds

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