• ANTM’s 2H25 production is set to slow on supply constraints, with 2025 gold sales guided at about 43.8 tonnes (similar to 2024 level) and nickel ore at around 16m wmt. • We maintain BUY with a lower target price of Rp4,000 (from Rp4,600), as near-term headwinds are outweighed by gold proxy positioning, upside from persistently high gold prices, and a solid long-term outlook.
Strategy: Impact Of Cabinet Reshuffle There are changes in the formation of ministers, with the Minister of Finance being a notable replacement. Share prices for big banks go down while cigarette stocks are up. The 2026 budget outlook and fiscal stance are key catalysts. Company Update | Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp3,610/Target: Rp4,000) ANTM’s 2H25 production is set to slow on supply constraints, with 2025 gold sales guided at about 43.8 tonnes (similar to 2024 level) and nickel ore at arou...
Greater China Economics | Trade China’s export momentum softened in August as front-loaded US demand has faded, exposing the vulnerability of shipments to the US market. While the trade diversion supported flows to ASEAN and the EU, overall growth moderated. Imports also weakened amid subdued agricultural demand, despite firmer commodity-related inflows. Pro...
GREATER CHINA Results CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/BUY/HK$10.51/Target: HK$12.00) 1H25: Results miss; expects hoh sales recovery and two more BD deals in 2H25. Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK/BUY/HK$30.80/Target: HK$40.00) 2Q25: Net loss in line; 3Q25 turnaround on the back of lithium carbonate price recovery. Maintain BUY, target price: HK$40.00. Li Ning (2331 HK/HOLD/HK$19.70/Target: HK$18.90) 1H25: Results beat but challenges remain in 2H25; fa...
Indonesia plans to launch its first gold ETF in 4Q25, led by IDX and OJK, to channel culturally accepted gold investment into a regulated digital investment product. Strong retail appetite, as seen in BRIS and Pegadaian’s gold growth, underpins a potential AUM expansion. As one of the largest gold producers in the world, Indonesia can source bullion locally and integrate domestic miners, Pegadaian, BRIS, refiners (ANTM) and banks into an ecosystem, creating a virtuous circle across the value cha...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. Sector Online Games Upcoming new game releases to capitalise on the summer holiday season. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June Our new alpha picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA...
Our Jun 25 portfolio outperformed the JCI and LQ45 by +5.1%/+7.1% respectively, mainly driven by DKFT (+16% performance) and outperformances by other stocks such as ANTM, CMRY and AMRT. Several major events to watch out this month include upcoming IPOs (especially the sizeable Chandra Daya Investasi (CDIA) IPO worth about US$143m) and the outcome of the US-Indo reciprocal tariffs discussion on 9 July. Our new Alpha Picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA, AMRT and TLKM.
GREATER CHINA Sector Insurance Weighing the risks and returns. Update Sunny Optical (2382 HK/BUY/HK$65.15/Target: HK$100.00) Takeaways from 2025 Investor Day. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Strategy Challenging Macro Environment Adds To Case For Rate Cut Our top picks are BBCA, BBRI, ANTM, AMRT, ICBP, CMRY and ERAA. MALAYSIA Sector Automobile ...
The JCI rebounded to about 7,000 after bottoming out at 5,968 on 9 April, following a series of developments including corporate buyback announcements, the creation of Danantara, and market anticipation of a BI rate cut which materialised on 21 May (25bp cut). Catalysts to monitor in 2H25 include: a) further BI rate cut(s), b) a slowdown in SRBI reissuance which would free up banking liquidity, c) further government economic stimulus measures, and d) heavier government spending.
The JCI rebounded to about 7,000 after bottoming out at 5,968 on 9 April, following a series of developments including corporate buyback announcements, the creation of Danantara, and market anticipation of a BI rate cut which materialised on 21 May (25bp cut). Catalysts to monitor in 2H25 are further rate BI cut(s), a slowdown in SRBI reissuance which would free up banking liquidity, further government economic stimulus measures, and heavier government spending. • In need of a rate cut and an in...
We met with 12 investors in Kuala Lumpur, and the overall tone among Malaysian-based funds can be best described as cautious but engaged. Indonesia remains firmly on their radar, but several overhangs persist, particularly around the evolving political landscape, policy clarity, the free meal programme and weak purchasing power. 2H25 government spending and a further rate cut are catalysts, in our view. Our year-end target for the JCI is 7,500.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Takeaways from channel check at The Southside. INDONESIA Strategy Higher Oil Prices Bode Well For Some Participants Beneficiaries of higher oil prices. Takeaways From Our Marketing Trip To Kuala Lumpur Cautious but engaged. MALAYSIA Sector Construction Sector resists tensions from global uncerta...
Strategy: Higher Oil Prices Bode Well For Some Market Participants: Beneficiaries of higher oil prices. Takeaways From Our Marketing Trip To Kuala Lumpur: Cautious but engaged. TRADERS’ CORNER Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ): Technical BUY Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ): Technical BUY
GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation: Upstream deflationary pressures intensify. Trade: May data weighed down by higher tariffs. Sector Property: Shenzhen taps HPF for down payments to stabilise the property market; land market sees divergence among cities. INDONESIA Update Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp3,450/Target: Rp4,600): Capitalising on gold’s momentum despite environmental headwinds. MALAYSIA Sector Plantation: 1Q25 results largely met expectations. We expect 2Q25 earnings to be supported b...
UOB Bank expects gold prices to reach US$3,700 by 2Q26 amid geopolitical risks and strong demand. Despite a temporary halt at ANTM’s PT Gag Nikel mine, our 2025 earnings forecast remains intact. We raise our target price to Rp4,600, based on 10.1x EV/EBITDA (+1SD vs three-year average, previously at average). We use a conservative gold price of US$3,200 (2025F) and US$3,400 (2026F). Expectations of persistently high gold prices above US$3,700 in 2Q26 provide greater upside visibility.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China Property & Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Manageable pressure in mainland property market; improved tourism and retail sales momentum in Hong Kong. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances in May Good performances from most with the exception of GOTO and BUKA. MALAYSIA Results CIMB Group (CIMB MK/HOLD/RM6.93/Target: RM7.70) 1Q25: Earnings in line, underpinned by lower provisions. Mai...
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