We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed names and segments include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands China. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
In 3Q25, revenue was Rmb4,220m (+0.4% yoy), and core net profit was Rmb367m (-12% yoy). Sales volume declined 1% yoy to 8.7m hl, but ASP increased 1% yoy. By segment, both sales volume and ASP for premium beer improved yoy. Although the on-trade channel remained soft, the company intensified its focus on the off-trade channel to offset the weakness. For raw material costs, we expect the tailwinds to moderate in 2026. Maintain BUY; cut target price by 4% to Rmb64.50.
Top Stories Company Update | AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$75.45/Target: HK$95.00) AIA’s VONB grew strongly by 27% yoy in 3Q25, significantly above consensus expectation of 17% yoy, due to the sustained strong momentum in Hong Kong (+40% yoy) and a notable recovery in mainland China, where VONB rose 27% yoy despite assumption changes. ANP sales growth accelerated to 15% and VONB margin also improved 6.0ppt, due to a favourable shift in product mix in China. Maintain BUY with a higher target price o...
We observed the following trends in holiday consumption: a) jewellery performed well on rising gold prices; b) retail and catering consumption was modest, with growth decelerating from that during the 2025 Spring Festival and Labour Day; c) specialty retail (duty-free) saw per capita spending improve; and d) consumers continued to show enthusiasm for tourism and leisure spending, with domestic long-haul travel and outbound travel gaining popularity. The lower-than-expected Macau visitor arrivals...
On 16 Sep 25, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other government departments jointly issued a plan to expand service consumption. This plan introduces 19 measures focusing on five areas. We highlight IP-related consumption and tourism as the two primary themes positioned to benefit the most. In addition, the government plans to optimise student vacation schedules by exploring the possibility of shortening winter and summer vacations while introducing spring and autumn vacations to increase the ...
In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are committed to enhancing shareholder returns. W...
Greater China Sector Updates | Consumer In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are c...
CBC’s 2Q25 revenue decreased by 2% yoy, mainly due to a 2% drop in ASP, while beer sales volume remained largely flat. The on-trade channel remained weak in 2Q25, while the off-trade channel was stable. Thus, the company continued to focus on the off-trade channel to drive sales and offset the decline in the on-trade channel. On the cost front, management expects the cost benefit to continue in 2H25 but to moderate in 2026. Maintain BUY but cut target price by 5% to Rmb67.40.
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity: Growth decelerates as trade war impact deepens. Results Chongqing Brewery (600132 CH/BUY/Rmb55.26/Target: Rmb67.40): 2Q25: Volume remained flat but ASP dropped 2% yoy; expanding off-trade channel to offset the weakness in on-trade channel. CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical Co (300765 CH/HOLD/Rmb53.00/Target: Rmb52.00): 1H25: Results in line, smooth progress in R&D. Update Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb44.86/Target: Rmb49.50): Solid 3Q guida...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Economic Activity Industrial production growth weakened to 5.7% yoy in July, below consensus expectations of 6.0% yoy. FAI ytd growth continued its decline to 1.6% yoy, weighed by deteriorating property FAI ytd (-12.0% yoy), hitting fresh lows. Retail sales growth at 3.7% yoy also disappointed, well below consensus expectations of 4.6% yoy. The unemployment rate edged higher to 5.2%. July's data confirms our earlier warning of downside pressure, and we expect more fisc...
During the Labour Day holiday (1-5 May), Macau's visitor arrivals significantly beat the government's expectation. Retail and catering sales showed a modest improvement in terms of yoy growth compared with the Chinese New Year holiday, while home appliance sales continued to benefit from the trade-in programme, with premium products demonstrating robust growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the China consumer sector. Our top picks include CR Beer, Mengniu, and Moutai.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Market watch around May holiday: New-home sales recovery weakens in Apr 25; the trend of Hong Kong resident travelling north remains strong. Sector Consumer Strong Macau visitations and robust home appliance sales during Labour Day Holiday. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp2,540/Target:...
CBC’s 1Q25 revenue grew 1% yoy, driven by a 2% beer sales volume growth but offset by a slight decline in ASP. Notably, revenue from the premium segment grew 1% yoy, turning to a positive growth trajectory after being on a downward trend since 2Q24. Maintain BUY and an unchanged target price of Rmb71.30.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/HOLD/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.00) CCB delivered disappointing 1Q25 results as net profit declined 4.0%, dragged by NIM compression and tepid fee income. Furthermore, revenue growth was no longer supported by trading gains, as yields rebounded during 1Q25. Asset quality was a silver lining as CCB highlighted the sequential improvement in the retail and property developer segments. Management also noted that tariff risk is manageable in terms of...
GREATER CHINA Results Chongqing Brewery (600132 CH/BUY/Rmb59.82/Target: Rmb71.30) 2024: Net profit misses but core profit in line due to lawsuit provision; focus on off-premise channel expansion in 2025. MALAYSIA Sector Consumer ESG assessment of the top 10 largest F&B companies; Nestle comes out tops. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Update Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK/HOLD/RM4.75/Target: RM4.40) Advise taking profit...
On 16 March, the State Council issued a plan on special initiatives to boost consumption, aiming to increase spending power by increasing income and reducing financial burdens, generate effective demand through high-quality supply, and improve the consumption environment to strengthen consumers’ willingness to spend. In the China consumer sector, we prefer Anta, CR Beer, Galaxy, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Yili. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Consumption during the CNY demonstrated a satisfactory momentum. Daily average sales revenue of consumer-related industries grew 11% yoy, with the home appliances and furnishing category recording the highest growth rate. Domestic tourism per capita spending increased 1% yoy and recovered to 95% of 2019’s level, and Hainan DF per capita spending rose 4% yoy. Macau visitations recovered to 95% of 2019’s level. In the China consumer space, we prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands Ch...
We do not expect a strong consumption momentum for the upcoming CNY holiday, but expect home appliance, Macau gaming, movie and retail to be the bright spots. We prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands in China’s consumer space.
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation Airlines: The three major airlines’ 2024 preliminary earnings estimates were below expectations – still loss-making. Healthcare TCM: GPO price pressure continues to cloud 2025’s growth outlook. Consumer CNY preview: Expect home appli...
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