reports
- Wei Xiang Ku
OM Holdings (OMH MK) - 1H24: Results Within Expectations; Demand Weakn...
1H24: Results Within Expectations; Demand Weakness To Resume In 2H24 Within expectations. OM Holdings (OMH) reported a core net profit of RM57.6m (-33% yoy). The weak set of results were mainly due to lower ASPs of ferroalloys which resulted in lower margins despite a higher total volume of products sold, driven by a 41% yoy growth in production volume. The 1H24 core net profit accounted for about 46% and 45% of our and consensus full-year estimates respectively, and we deem the results within e...
- Wei Xiang Ku
OM Holdings (OMH MK) - 2Q24: Production Within Expectations; Demand We...
2Q24: Production Within Expectations; Demand Weakness To Resume In 2H24 2Q24 ferroalloy production broadly within expectations. OM Holdings’ (OMH) 2Q24 production volumes of ferrosilicon (FeSi) and manganese (Mn) alloy were 48,268mt (-3% qoq; +62% yoy) and 84,037mt (+12% qoq; +19%) respectively. The strong yoy improvement in FeSi production resulted from the operation of all six furnaces and one dual-use MetSi furnaces. Meanwhile, both the qoq and yoy improvement in Mn alloy production can mainl...
- Wei Xiang Ku
OM Holdings (OMH MK) - 1Q24 Production Within Expectations; Demand Wea...
1Q24 Production Within Expectations; Demand Weakness Expected In 2024 OMH's 1Q24 production output was in line with our expectation, as operations have gradually recovered amid ongoing major maintenance work. While we expect stronger production in 2024 as OMH has successfully fired all its 16 furnaces, lower ferroalloy prices could drag down earnings. OMH is a fixed-rate hydro-powered smelter which has significant cost advantage vs global competitors. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged target price...
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ceilica Su Rui
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Thailand Research Team
- Wei Xiang Ku
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, May 2, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Macau Gaming Apr 24 GGR down 5% mom; downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.10/Target: HK$6.00) 1Q24: Results in line with better NIM performance. LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH/SELL/Rmb18.20/Target: Rmb14.38) 2023/1Q24: Below expectations; inventory write-down wipes out earnings. Downgrade to SELL. PICC Property and Casualty (2328 HK/BUY/HK$9.71/Target: HK$11.70) 1Q24: Earnings miss on higher COR and lower investment income...
MAJOR MAJOR CINEPLEX GROUP PCL
0939 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORPORATION CLASS H
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
OMH OM HOLDINGS
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
002352 S.F. HOLDING CO. LTD. CLASS A
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
601012 LONGI GREEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
YUMC YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INC.
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
CPALL TB CP ALL
338 WEICHAI POWER
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
TAPG TRIPUTRA AGRO PERSADA PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
Z29 029 GROUP SE
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
- Wei Xiang Ku
OM Holdings (OMH MK) - 2023: Within Expectations; Expect Slow Recovery...
2023: Within Expectations; Expect Slow Recovery In 2024 2023 net profit fell 73% yoy mainly due to lower ferroalloy prices. This brings 2023 core net profit to RM82m which is within our expectation. While we expect stronger production in 2024 as OMH has successfully fired 15 of its 16 furnaces, lower ferroalloy prices could drag down earnings. Downgrade 2024/25 earnings by 35%/25% respectively to account for lower ferroalloy prices. Downgrade to HOLD with a lower target price of RM1.55.
- Wei Xiang Ku
OM Holdings (OMH MK) - 2023 Production Within Expectations; Demand Res...
2023 Production Within Expectations; Demand Resurgence Expected In 2024 OMH's 2023 production output was in line with our expectations, as operations have gradually recovered amid ongoing major maintenance work. OMH could see a meaningful earnings rebound in 2024 with the reversal of the US interest rate cycle boosting demand. OMH is set to achieve a multi-year profit bonanza with expanded capacity, as hydro-powered smelters’ cost advantage has significantly widened vs global competitors. Mainta...
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Jonathan Koh
- Jun Sian Tan
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Wei Xiang Ku
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, January 30, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Commodities: Weekly: US 4Q23 GDP trounces expectations; weak copper demand caps gain. INDONESIA Results Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/BUY/Rp5,575/Target: Rp6,300): 4Q23: Improving asset quality, loan growth to accelerate in 2024. MALAYSIA Update IJM Corporation (IJM MK/HOLD/RM2.22/Target: RM2.13): Earnings outlook remains robust on brighter replenishment outlook, improved traffic and throughput, as well as higher property sales. Maintain HOLD with a higher target price...
- Chris Thompson
Manganese Supply Deficit Looms as Demand from Alloys and EV Batteries ...
Manganese (Mn) is an essential metal with numerous applications across various industries, particularly in the production of steel and stainless steel, and its growing use in electric vehicle (EV) battery technology. Nearly 90% of manganese produced globally is used in the steel industry. Manganese alloys impart properties like hardness and strength in products ranging from automotive steel sheets to construction materials. Manganese also finds chemical applications in fertilizers, batteries, a...
- Malaysia Research Team
OM Holdings (OMH MK) - 9M23 Production Within Expectations; Awaiting M...
9M23 Production Within Expectations; Awaiting More Clarity On MetSi Production OMH's 9M23 production output is in line with our expectations, as operations have gradually recovered amid ongoing major maintenance work. We anticipate even stronger production in 2H23, as the group has successfully converted another MetSi furnace to FeSi. OMH could see a meaningful rebound in 2024 on the reversal of US interest rate cycle alongside expansion of capacity. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of RM2...
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Greater China Research Team
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Jun Sian Tan
- Ken Lee
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Malaysia Research Team
- Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, October 30, 2023
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation: Airlines: 3Q23 results broadly in line; bottom line turned around in the seasonal peak quarter. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.90): 3Q23: In line; 3Q23 wind power utilisation hours down 34 hours yoy. Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK/HOLD/HK$3.76/Target: HK$4.00): 3Q23: Below expectations; 3Q23 WTG sales growth slows to +6.0% yoy. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/BUY/HK$10.82/Target: HK$13.50): 3Q23: Earnings tripl...
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
LPPF PT MATAHARI DEPARTMENT STORE TBK CLASS A
INCO VALE INDONESIA
300124 SHENZHEN INOVANCE TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD CLASS A
601633 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS A
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
168 TSINGTAO BREWERY CO LTD
PTTEP-R PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PCL NVDR
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
2202 XINJIANG GOLDWIND SCIENCE&TECHNOLOGY
916 CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP-H
EKO EKOVEST BHD
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
CTOS CTOS DIGITAL BHD
- Malaysia Research Team
Building Materials - 2Q23 Results Within Expectations; Cement As Near-...
2Q23 Results Within Expectations; Cement As Near-term Winner 2Q23 results are broadly in line. We believe prices of selected industrial commodities have bottomed out and are poised for a rebound in 2024 due to: a) easing inflation and peakish US interest rate cycle, and b) ongoing supply tightness which will stimulate demand and support prices. Meanwhile, cement stock Hume is poised to record stronger qoq earnings, reflecting high cement prices and production volume. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pic...
- Malaysia Research Team
OM Holdings (OMH MK) - 1H23: Within Expectations; Expect Gradual Recov...
1H23: Within Expectations; Expect Gradual Recovery in 2024 OMH 1H23 net profit fell 76% yoy mainly due to lower ferroalloy prices. This brings 1H23 core net profit to RM54m which is within our expectations. We anticipate stronger production in 2H23 to partially offset the lower ferroalloy prices, as the group has successfully converted one of the MetSi furnaces to FeSi. OMH could see a meaningful rebound in 2024 on the reversal of the US interest rate cycle alongside expansion of capacity. Maint...
- Malaysia Research Team
OM Holdings (OMH MK) - Expect Stronger Ferroalloys Production In 2H23
Expect Stronger Ferroalloys Production In 2H23 OMH's 1H23 production output is in line with our expectations, as operations have gradually recovered amid ongoing major maintenance work. We anticipate even stronger production in 2H23, as the group has successfully converted one of the MetSi furnaces to FeSi. OMH could see a meaningful rebound in 2024 on the reversal of US interest rate cycle alongside expansion of capacity. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of RM2.95.
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Damon Shen
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jieqi Liu
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Jonathan Koh
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Kong Ho Meng
- Malaysia Research Team
- Paula Ruth
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
- Waritthorn Kaewmuang
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, July 31, 2023
GREATER CHINA Strategy The Reflation Trade: NAFR's support for increased credit for consumption and investment is significant; it is time to consider the reflation trade. Sector Property: High interest rates remain a major risk; recovery of tourism spending partially offset by strong outbound travel of Hong Kong residents. INDONESIA Results Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ/HOLD/Rp3,270/Target: Rp3,400): 2Q23: Weak Lebaran sales could work against valuation. Downgrade to HOLD. Mitra Adiperkasa...
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
LPPF PT MATAHARI DEPARTMENT STORE TBK CLASS A
C6L SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD.
MAPI MITRA ADIPERKASA
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TRUE TRUE CORP. PUBLIC CO. LTD.
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
SCC-R SIAM CEMENT (NVDR)
OR PTT OIL & RETAIL BUSINESS PCL
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
STM SEATRIUM LTD
- Malaysia Research Team
OM Holdings (OMH MK) - Expect A Better 2024; 350MW Power Supply to Fue...
Expect A Better 2024; 350MW Power Supply to Fuel Expansion Plan While we expect 2023 to be weaker yoy on lower ASPs of FeSi and Mn alloys, OMH could see a meaningful rebound in 2024 on the rebound of FeSi Mn alloy ASP alongside expansion of capacity. Meanwhile, OMH has secured electricity supply of 350MW to fuel its expansion plan to 725ktpa (+100%) by 2026. We cut 2023-25 earnings by 34-81% to account for lower ASPs of FeSi and Mn alloys. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of RM2.65.
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Jieqi Liu
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kwanchai Atiphophai
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Malaysia Research Team
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, July 17, 2023
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation: Airlines: Three major airlines still loss-making in 2Q23. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT with Air China (753HK/BUY/Target: HK$6.32) as our top pick. Property: Latest comments by PBOC official Zou Lan point to further policy easing. Update China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$4.39/Target: HK$6.30): 1H23 results preview: NIM dilution is expected to ease; recovery of non-interest income to support earnings growth. Maintain BUY. JD.com (9618 HK/BUY/HK$150.70/Target: HK$216.00)...
- Malaysia Research Team
Building Materials - Fear Of Recession Dampened Prices; Cement Emerges...
Fear Of Recession Dampened Prices; Cement Emerges As A Dark Horse Despite the continuing volatility, prices of selected industrial commodities have bottomed out and are poised for a rebound in 2023: a) amid easing inflation and peakish US interest rate cycle, and b) as ongoing supply tightness will stimulate demand and support prices. Meanwhile, cement stock Hume provides clear near-term upside reflecting, high cement prices and easing input costs. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: Hume and Press ...
- Hazmy Hazin
OM Holdings (OMH MK) - Positive Outlook Backed By Stronger Production
Positive Outlook Backed By Stronger Production OMH is set to achieve a strong profit this year with expanded capacity, as hydropowered smelters’ cost advantage has significantly widened vs global competitors’. OMH’s 1Q23 production output is within our expectation as operation has recovered gradually amid the ongoing major maintenance work. OMH is currently trading at an undemanding valuation of 3-4x 2023F PE, with the full consolidation of its Sarawak operation to enhance earnings further. Main...
- Greater China Research Team
- Hazmy Hazin
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Johnny Yum
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Kate Luang
- Kelvin Chau Siu Pong
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Malaysia Research Team
- Thailand Research Team
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
- Waritthorn Kaewmuang
Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, May 3, 2023
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Calls: We expect increased volatility in May, but with limited downside. Add CATL, Inovance, Sands China and Tongcheng Travel to our BUY list. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Wasion Holdings (3393 HK/NOT RATED/HK$3.53): Overseas business and energy storage driving growth. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Apr 23: Our picks are CTRA, HMSP, BBNI, BMRI, BUKA, SMGR, KLBF and MAPI. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Navigating the Dreaded Mo...
- Hazmy Hazin
Building Materials - Rocky Start Entering 2023
Rocky Start Entering 2023 Hard commodity prices remain volatile due to weak sentiment from the fear of a global recession. However, prices of hard commodities such as aluminium, ferroalloy and tin have gradually rebounded on the back of China’s economic reopening, which has helped to stimulate demand. Continued supply disruption and the energy crisis also put further pressure on the ongoing shortage due to the global decarbonisation agenda. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: Press Metal.
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