reports
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: MRPL (Neutral)-Strong 1QFY23, but consistency is key
MRPL reported a strong beat on EBITDA and PAT (due to a higher reported GRM of USD24.4/bbl). Refinery throughput was in line at 4.3mmt (up 40% YoY), implying a utilization rate of 114%. The amalgamation of MRPL with OMPL from 1st Apr’22 led to strong synergies in the production of Para-xylene, Benzene, and other products. This is a bold move, but profitability remains a concern in the long run. Singapore GRM improved to USD21/bbl QoQ in 1QFY23, led by an improvement in gasoline, gasoil, and ...
With a more favourable environment, MANGALORE REFINERY improves to Pos...
MANGALORE REFINERY (IN), a company active in the Exploration & Production industry, is favoured by a more supportive environment. The independent financial analyst theScreener has confirmed the fundamental rating of the title, which shows 3 out of 4 stars, as well as its unchanged, defensive market behaviour. The title leverages a more favourable environment and raises its general evaluation to Positive. As of the analysis date February 4, 2022, the closing price was INR 47.45 and its potential ...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: MRPL (Neutral)-Better than expected core GRM, but concerns remai...
MRPL: Better than expected core GRM, but concerns remain (MRPL IN, Mkt Cap USD1b, CMP INR42, TP INR46, 9% Upside, Neutral) Reported 3QFY20 GRM was higher than expected at USD3.19/bbl (v/s -USD0.63/bbl in 3QFY19). However, MRPL's GRMs have not always been good on a sustainable basis; at times it has been hit by water woes and at times, by technical issues. Also, SG refining margins have been under pressure due to large incremental supply glut amidst tepid global demand. Poor refining mar...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: MRPL (Neutral)-Refinery performance concerning
MRPL: Refinery performance concerning (MRPL IN, Mkt Cap USD1.1b, CMP INR46, TP INR49, 5% Upside, Neutral) - SG refining margins have been under pressure due to the large incremental glut in supply amidst tepid global demand. - MRPL’s stock price has declined 37% in FY20 YTD due to concerns about benchmark GRMs and shutdowns further impacting the performance. - We expect the refining margins to remain weak. The dependence on the Nethravathi River until the desali...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: MRPL (Neutral)-EBITDA exceeds due to lower than expected opex
MRPL: EBITDA exceeds due to lower than expected opex (MRPL IN, Mkt Cap USD1.6b, CMP INR63, TP INR70, 12% Upside, Neutral) Reported GRM stood at USD5.01/bbl (-36% YoY) for 4QFY19, lower than our estimate of USD5.2/bbl. However, lower-than-expected opex resulted in EBITDA of INR7.1b (-41% YoY, loss in 3QFY19), as against our estimate of INR5.8b. Forex gain stood at INR1.1b v/s a loss of INR1.5b in 4QFY18 and a gain of INR3.8b in 3QFY19. Reported PAT was at INR3.2b (-41% YoY). For FY19, EBI...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: MRPL (Buy)-High inventory losses
MRPL: High inventory losses (MRPL IN, Mkt Cap USD1.6b, CMP INR67, TP INR77, 16% Upside, Buy) Core GRM of USD4.0/bbl came in marginally higher than our estimate of USD3.88/bbl. However, inventory loss was much higher, resulting in an EBITDA loss of INR5b, as against our estimate of a gain of INR1.2b. Forex gain stood at INR3.8b v/s INR2b in 3QFY18 and a loss of INR4b in 2QFY19. Led by inventory losses, MRPL reported a net adjusted loss of INR2.6b, as against our estimate of a gain of INR322m...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: MRPL (Upgrade to Buy)-Expect better refining margins-Acquired 80...
MRPL: Expect better refining margins; Acquired 80-90% land for Phase-IV expansion for INR6b (MRPL IN, Mkt Cap USD1.7b, CMP INR70, TP INR86, 23% Upside, Upgrade to Buy) We hosted investors to visit MRPL and its subsidiary ONGC Mangalore Petrochemicals Ltd (OMPL) at Mangaluru, Karnataka. Key takeaways: MRPL Until Aug’18, several secondary units of the refinery faced technical issues, which have been resolved; since then, the refinery is running at its optimal capacity. If crack spreads a...
MRPL's Q2FY19 results (Downgrade to Neutral) - Operational woes persis...
Q2FY19 highlights MRPL recurring EBITDA of Rs1.4bn and adj loss of Rs1bn were well below IDFCe EBITDA/PAT of Rs7.2bn/3.3bn and also well below Q2FY18 EBITDA/PAT of Rs9/4.96bn. Multiple reasons impacted the results; i) shutdown of coker unit for 12 days, ii) lower PPU evacuation, iii) lower product spreads and iv) higher F&L costs which also coincided with higher crude prices Driven by the above reasons and weak product spreads, Core GRMs for MRPL were at US$2.3/bbl, lowest since Q2FY15 (IDFC...
MRPL's Q1FY19 results (Outperformer) - Higher forex loss offsets inven...
Q1FY19 result highlights Recurring PAT of Rs3.8bn for the quarter up 62% yoy, below IDFCe Rs4.4bn. EBITDA of Rs8.1bn (+40% yoy, IDFCe Rs8.8bn). Reported earnings of Rs3.6bn below IDFCe Rs4.4bn, driven by higher opex which offsets higher GRMs vs estimates. Earnings impacted by a sharp increase in *other opex* to Rs8.5bn (+75% yoy), sharply ahead of estimates of Rs3.5bn driven by higher forex loss of Rs3.9bn vs gains of Rs315mn in Q1FY18 and estimates of Rs1bn loss PPU unit gradually stabili...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: MRPL (Neutral)-Core GRM lower than estimated
MRPL: Core GRM lower than estimated (MRPL IN, Mkt Cap USD2.1b, CMP INR84, TP INR88, 5% Upside, Neutral) MRPL's reported EBITDA of INR8.1b (+40% YoY, -22% QoQ) for 1QFY19. The company booked a forex loss of INR3.9b v/s a forex gain of INR315m in 1QFY18 and a forex loss of INR1.5b in 4QFY18. Excluding the forex loss, EBITDA stood at INR11.9b (+117% YoY, +1% QoQ), 14% higher than our estimate of INR10.6b due to higher inventory gain of USD3.49/bbl. The company booked an exceptional item of I...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: MRPL (Neutral)-Cutting target price to factor in OMPL’s muted ...
MRPL: Cutting target price to factor in OMPL’s muted performance; Maintain Neutral (MRPL IN, Mkt Cap USD2.2b, CMP INR85, TP INR88, 4% Upside, Neutral) ONGC Mangalore Petrochemicals Limited (OMPL) is a 51% subsidiary of MRPL. It has a capacity of ~0.9mmtpa for paraxylene and 0.27mmtpa for benzene. Its performance has been muted compared with our earlier assumptions. We realign our expectations and revise our target price for MRPL accordingly. Poor gross margin: Despite the strong utiliza...
MRPL's Q4FY18 results (Outperformer) - Lower inventory gains drive a ...
Q4FY18 result highlights Recurring PAT of Rs5.4bn for the quarter down 38% yoy. Reported EBITDA of Rs10.4bn (-16% yoy, IDFCe Rs10.5bn). Reported earnings below IDFCe Rs5.7bn, driven by lower GRMs and higher tax rate, offset by lower other opex and higher thruput. PPU unit gradually stabilising post the problems with the delayed coker unit in FY18, expected to run at 100% in FY19E. Inventory gains of US$1.4/bbl. Resultant, core GRMs of US$6.5/bbl was below IDFCe US$6.3/bbl. Refining thrupu...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: MRPL (Neutral)-EBITDA significantly above estimate-reported GRM ...
MRPL: EBITDA significantly above estimate; reported GRM at USD7.9/bbl (MRPL IN, Mkt Cap USD3.2b, CMP INR106, TP INR120, 14% Upside, Neutral) MRPL's 4QFY18 EBITDA stood at INR10.4b (-33% YoY, -40% QoQ), significantly above our estimate of INR7.5b, led by higher-than-expected inventory gains and throughput. The company booked a forex loss of INR1.5b v/s forex gain of INR1.9b in 3QFY18 and INR3b in 4QFY17. PBT stood at INR8.5b (est. of INR5.2b; -35% YoY, -43% QoQ), further boosted by higher ...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: MRPL (Upgrade to Neutral)-EBITDA significantly above estimate-co...
MRPL: EBITDA significantly above estimate; core GRM at USD6.8/bbl (MRPL IN, Mkt Cap USD3.2b, CMP INR117, TP INR114, 3% Downside, Upgrade to Neutral) MRPL’s 3QFY18 EBITDA was INR17.5b (+52% YoY, +93% QoQ), significantly above our estimate of INR11.5b, led by higher than expected inventory gains and throughput. The company booked a forex gain of INR1.9b v/s forex loss of INR670m in 2QFY18 and INR1.6b in 3QFY17. Interest cost was INR1.2b (-17% YoY, +10% QoQ; our estimate: INR1.3b), depreciat...
MRPL's Q3FY18 results (Outperformer) - A strong quarter, helped by in...
Q3FY18 result highlights Recurring PAT of Rs9.7bn for the quarter up 71% yoy. Reported EBITDA of Rs17.5bn (+52% yoy, IDFCe Rs10.2bn). Net Earnings above estimates of Rs6bn primarily due to higher refining thruput of 4.5mt (IDFCe 4mt) and higher GRMs of US$9.3/bbl (IDFCe US$8.4/bbl). PPU unit gradually stabilising post the problems with the delayed coker unit in Q2, expected to run at 100% in FY19E. Inventory gains of US$2.5/bbl. Resultant, core GRMs of US$6.8/bbl was above IDFCe US$6.5/bbl...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: MRPL (Sell)-Poor operating performance-core GRM at USD5.3/bbl
​MRPL: Poor operating performance; core GRM at USD5.3/bbl(MRPL IN, Mkt Cap USD3.5b, CMP INR122, TP INR110, 10% Downside, Sell)MRPL's 2QFY18 EBITDA came in at INR9.1b (+16% YoY, +56% QoQ), significantly below our estimate of INR13.6b, due to lower GRM and throughput. The company booked a forex loss of INR670m during the quarter v/s forex gain of INR315m in 1QFY18 and INR1.6b in 2QFY17. Operational performance was impacted by refinery maintenance shutdown during the quarter. Also, secondary unit...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: MRPL (Downgrade to Sell)- EBITDA impacted by inventory loss-core...
​MRPL: EBITDA impacted by inventory loss; core GRM at USD7.07/bbl(MRPL IN, Mkt Cap USD3.5b, CMP INR127, TP INR113, 11% Downside, Downgrade to Sell)MRPL’s 1QFY18 EBITDA of INR5.8b (excl. forex gain of INR315m; -52% YoY, -63% QoQ) came in significantly below our estimate of INR7.5b due to inventory loss of INR4.4b (USD2.33/bbl) and higher opex (USD3.3/bb) due to shut down. While interest cost came in at INR1.1b (est. of INR1.2b, -26% YoY, -12% QoQ), depreciation stood at INR1.6b (est. INR1.9b;...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: MRPL (Neutral)-EBITDA above est.-forex gain boosts PAT further
mrpl: EBITDA above est.; forex gain boosts PAT further(MRPL IN, Mkt Cap USD3.5b, CMP INR135, TP INR124, 8% Downside, Neutral)MRPL reported 4QFY17 EBITDA (excl. forex gain of INR3.1b) of INR12.5b (-19% YoY, +9% QoQ), above our estimate of INR9.2b, led by higher-than-estimated GRM of USD8.25/bbl (est. of USD6.1). Interest cost came in at INR1.2b (est. of INR1.4b, -17% YoY, -13% QoQ). Other income of INR375m (-84% YoY, -41% QoQ) missed our estimate of INR675m. Adj. PAT was INR8.7b (est. of INR4.4b;...
Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
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