We analyze the capex history & outlook for Global EM Telcos. For this group capex is falling rapidly (-12% in 2024 in US$) as competitive intensity improves and markets consolidate. Excluding China and India, EM Telco capex is already down 23% from peak.
Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. As we strengthen our understanding of the tech supply chain, we follow-up on our initial analysis to evaluate the impact on Infineon, as well as the broader Auto and Industrial market. This note follows recent ones we published on Nvidia, Broadcom, Intel/AMD, Semicap & TSMC. Read also our broader notes on tariffs: our baseline thesis for an overall perspective, and our assessment of the macro risk.
Despite global volatility our EM Top Picks posted positive returns again in April and now up 34% YTD on average. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be and this is now being reflected by the market it seems.
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