reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
OXY OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION
GE GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY
DEI DOUGLAS EMMETT INC
AMCX AMC NETWORKS INC. CLASS A
WBA WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE INC
TS TENARIS S.A. ADS
SCHL SCHOLASTIC CORPORATION
PSX PHILLIPS 66
PNFP PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS INC.
PKXN POSCO
PDM PIEDMONT OFFICE REALTY TRUST INC. CLASS A
FTE1 ORANGE
MNRO MONRO INC
MMP MAGELLAN MIDSTREAM PARTNERS L.P.
HIW HIGHWOODS PROPERTIES INC.
GRFS GRIFOLS S.A.
FMBI FIRST MIDWEST BANCORP INC.
EGRX EAGLE PHARMACEUTICALS INC.
CVS CVS HEALTH CORPORATION
CSGS CSG SYSTEMS INTERNATIONAL INC.
CME CME GROUP INC. CLASS A
CHUNGHWA TELECOM CO. LTD. ADS
CAJ CANON INC. ADS
BHE BENCHMARK ELECTRONICS INC.
G4RA BANCO DE CHILE ADS
46H HOLLYSYS AUTOMATION TECHNOLOGIES LTD.
AWI ARMSTRONG WORLD INDUSTRIES INC.
JW.A JOHN WILEY & SONS INC. CLASS A
CBNY CIBONEY GROUP
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
ADC AGREE REALTY CORPORATION
FLIR FLIR SYSTEMS INC.
HFC HOLLYFRONTIER CORPORATION
HMCn HONDA MOTOR ADS
HP HELMERICH & PAYNE INC.
PLAB PHOTRONICS INC.
CNU. CNOOC LTD
VODJ VODAFONE GROUP PLC (ADR)
BKR BAKER HUGHES COMPANY CLASS A
ABBV ABBVIE INC.
PRSP PERSPECTA
HII. HORIZONS CDN INS
WTRG ESSENTIAL UTILITIES
ORA. INC.
AURA MINERALS
FILMON.COM PLC
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
TEVA.N TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED SPONSORED ADR
RMBS RAMBUS INC.
NTCT NETSCOUT SYSTEMS INC.
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
ITRI ITRON INC.
HSTM HEALTHSTREAM INC.
HCSG HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP INC.
GRFS GRIFOLS S.A.
GILD GILEAD SCIENCES INC.
FISV FISERV INC.
EGRX EAGLE PHARMACEUTICALS INC.
DOX AMDOCS LIMITED
CVS CVS HEALTH CORPORATION
CRS CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION
COHR COHERENT INC.
CNC CENTENE CORPORATION
CDW CDW CORP.
BP BP PLC ADS
C25 BIOTELEMETRY INC.
ALSN ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS INC.
ACAD ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC.
46H HOLLYSYS AUTOMATION TECHNOLOGIES LTD.
NPWA SMITH & NEPHEW PLC
PSXP PHILLIPS 66 PARTNERS LP
EPD ENTERPRISE PRODUCTS PARTNERS L.P.
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION
CNST CONSTELLATION PHARMACEUTICALS
ARCE ARCO PLATFORM
STRA STRATEGIC EDUCATION INC.
STE STERIS PLC
PKK PEAK POSITIONING TECHNOLOGIES
INC.
- Karen Andersen
Morningstar | Maintaining Our Grifols FVE Following a Solid Quarter Dr...
We're maintaining our EUR 22.50/$25.50 fair value estimate following Grifols' solid first-quarter results. Grifols' bioscience segment (about 80% of sales) grew 13.4% (8% at constant currencies) in the first quarter to EUR 916 million, driven by immunoglobulin demand as well as some price increases in certain markets (likely including the U.S.). Grifols expects to launch its 20% subcutaneous immunoglobulin in the second half of 2019, and is ramping its marketing spend in preparation. Alpha-1 ant...
- Karen Andersen
Maintaining Our Grifols FVE Following a Solid Quarter Driven by Immuno...
We're maintaining our EUR 22.50/$25.50 fair value estimate following Grifols' solid first-quarter results. Grifols' bioscience segment (about 80% of sales) grew 13.4% (8% at constant currencies) in the first quarter to EUR 916 million, driven by immunoglobulin demand as well as some price increases in certain markets (likely including the U.S.). Grifols expects to launch its 20% subcutaneous immunoglobulin in the second half of 2019, and is ramping its marketing spend in preparation. Alpha-1 ant...
- Karen Andersen
Morningstar | Maintaining Our Grifols Valuation Following Solid 2018 R...
Grifols reported fourth-quarter results that were slightly ahead of our expectations on the top line due to Bioscience division outperformance but slightly lower than our expectations on the bottom line due to more aggressive investments in R&D and business development, and we don't expect any significant changes to our EUR 22.50/$25.50 fair value estimate. The 9.2% constant currency growth for the Bioscience division in fourth-quarter 2018 (8% for the full year) reflected very strong demand for...
- Karen Andersen
Maintaining Our Grifols Valuation Following Solid 2018 Results; 20% SC...
Grifols reported fourth-quarter results that were slightly ahead of our expectations on the top line due to Bioscience division outperformance but slightly lower than our expectations on the bottom line due to more aggressive investments in R&D and business development, and we don't expect any significant changes to our EUR 22.50/$25.50 fair value estimate. The 9.2% constant currency growth for the Bioscience division in fourth-quarter 2018 (8% for the full year) reflected very strong demand...
- Karen Andersen
Morningstar | Raising Grifols Valuation Post-3Q; Raising EBITDA Margin...
Grifols reported continued solid constant currency growth in the third quarter, with 9.5% growth in the Bioscience segment (80% of total sales), and we're slightly adjusting our fair value estimate to EUR 22.50 (maintaining our $25.50 fair value estimate) based on foreign exchange fluctuations and a slight raise in our assumed EBITDA margin for the year. Despite competition from Roche's Hemlibra that is impacting factor VIII demand, the demand for other key plasma-derived proteins (immunoglobuli...
- Karen Andersen
Morningstar | Raising Grifols Valuation Post-3Q; Raising EBITDA Margin...
Grifols reported continued solid constant currency growth in the third quarter, with 9.5% growth in the Bioscience segment (80% of total sales), and we're slightly adjusting our fair value estimate to EUR 22.50 (maintaining our $25.50 fair value estimate) based on foreign exchange fluctuations and a slight raise in our assumed EBITDA margin for the year. Despite competition from Roche's Hemlibra that is impacting factor VIII demand, the demand for other key plasma-derived proteins (immunoglobuli...
- Karen Andersen
Raising Grifols Valuation Post-3Q; Raising EBITDA Margin Assumption, A...
Grifols reported continued solid constant currency growth in the third quarter, with 9.5% growth in the Bioscience segment (80% of total sales), and we're slightly adjusting our fair value estimate to EUR 22.50 (maintaining our $25.50 fair value estimate) based on foreign exchange fluctuations and a slight raise in our assumed EBITDA margin for the year. Despite competition from Roche's Hemlibra that is impacting factor VIII demand, the demand for other key plasma-derived proteins (immunoglobuli...
- Karen Andersen
Morningstar | Maintaining Our Plasma FVEs Following Encouraging Grifol...
Grifols presented phase 2b/3 AMBAR data at Clinical Trials on Alzheimer's Disease (CTAD) in Barcelona on Oct. 27 that indicated a positive effect of plasma exchange on disease progression in patients with Alzheimer's, with a particularly strong effect in the subgroup of patients with moderate disease. While the analysis is not complete and several questions are still outstanding, we expect this to drive a limited amount of off-label demand for albumin (and potentially immunoglobulin) from plasma...
- Karen Andersen
Maintaining Our Plasma FVEs Following Encouraging Grifols Alzheimer's ...
Grifols presented phase 2b/3 AMBAR data at Clinical Trials on Alzheimer's Disease (CTAD) in Barcelona on Oct. 27 that indicated a positive effect of plasma exchange on disease progression in patients with Alzheimer's, with a particularly strong effect in the subgroup of patients with moderate disease. While the analysis is not complete and several questions are still outstanding, we expect this to drive a limited amount of off-label demand for albumin (and potentially immunoglobulin) from plasma...
- Karen Andersen
Morningstar | Grifols' 2Q Looks Steady as Firm Dips Toes Into China Pl...
Grifols reported continued solid constant-currency growth in the second quarter, with 7.4% growth in the Bioscience segment (80% of total sales), despite a particularly strong quarter in 2017 for comparison purposes as well as stronger headwinds in the factor VIII business. Despite competition from Roche's Hemlibra that is affecting factor VIII demand, the demand for other key plasma-derived proteins (immunoglobulin, albumin, and alpha-1 antitrypsin) remains strong, and we're not making any chan...
- Karen Andersen
Grifols' 2Q Looks Steady as Firm Dips Toes Into China Plasma Collectio...
Grifols reported continued solid constant-currency growth in the second quarter, with 7.4% growth in the Bioscience segment (80% of total sales), despite a particularly strong quarter in 2017 for comparison purposes as well as stronger headwinds in the factor VIII business. Despite competition from Roche's Hemlibra that is affecting factor VIII demand, the demand for other key plasma-derived proteins (immunoglobulin, albumin, and alpha-1 antitrypsin) remains strong, and we're not making any chan...
- Karen Andersen
Grifols Reports Solid 1Q Results; Weaker EBITDA This Year, But Raising...
We’ve slightly raised our Grifols fair value estimate to EUR 21.50 per share/$25.50 per ADR, after accounting for near-term weakness in EBITDA margins and factor VIII sales headwinds, but also incorporating increasing efficiencies beyond 2018. Grifols reported solid constant currency growth in the first quarter, with 5.8% growth in the Bioscience segment (79% of total sales), despite a strong first quarter of 2017 for comparison purposes as well as stronger headwinds in the factor VIII busines...
- Karen Andersen
Slightly Increasing Our Grifols FVE Following 3Q Strength, but Shares ...
Grifols reported strong third-quarter results, with 8.5% constant currency top-line growth and a steady adjusted EBITDA margin of 30.1%, that reflected a continuation of rapid growth in its core bioscience business and solid revenue growth for its diagnostics arm. We’re slightly raising our fair value estimate to $23.50 per ADR/EUR 20 per class B share as we’ve slightly boosted our long-term assumptions for immunoglobulin market growth. Shares now look fairly valued, and we think Grifols' st...
- Karen Andersen
Grifols Shares Remain Slightly Undervalued Following Continued Strengt...
Grifols reported strong second-quarter results, with 10.3% constant currency top-line growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 30.2%, which reflected a continuation of rapid growth in its core bioscience business and accelerating revenue growth for its diagnostics arm. We're increasing our projections for the year, but this does not have a significant impact on our fair value estimate; we’re slightly raising our fair value estimate for the Grifols ADR to $22.50 (from $21) due to exchange rate f...
- Karen Andersen
Slightly Raising Our Grifols FVE Following Strong 1Q Plasma Protein De...
Grifols’ first-quarter results were ahead of our expectations, and we’re slightly increasing our fair value estimate to EUR 19.10/$21 per ADR after raising our immunoglobulin growth rate assumption for the year to 10%, and also lowering our long-term tax rate assumption to factor in potential U.S. corporate tax reform in 2018.  Top-line growth of almost 8% at constant currencies was driven by plasma products in the bioscience segment (11.9% growth), aided by a stabilizing diagnostics segmen...
- Karen Andersen
Grifols Shares Look Fairly Valued; Hologic Deal Expected to Boost Marg...
Grifols reported results for 2016 that were in line with our expectations, and we’re not making any changes to our EUR 17.50 per B share/$18.60 per ADR fair value estimates. Top-line growth of 3% was driven by a mix of steady bioscience growth (6.6% constant currency), and lower reimbursement in the diagnostics segment (4% sales decline), although diagnostics headwinds should reverse in 2017. EBITDA margin of 28.2% for the year should improve significantly (we model 31.8% EBITDA margin in 2017...
- Karen Andersen
Narrow-moat Grifols has strong cost advantages in the global plasma ma...
Grifols has agreed to purchase partner Hologic’s share in their blood and plasma screening business for $1.85 billion in cash. We don’t expect any significant changes to our valuations for either firm following the deal. The move appears to come at a fair price and strategically fits Grifols’ desire to vertically integrate its diagnostics business while allowing Hologic to exit a business that wasn’t synergistic with the rest of its diagnostics efforts. The deal is expected to close in t...
- Karen Andersen
Maintaining Our Grifols and Hologic FVEs Following Blood Screening Dea...
Grifols has agreed to purchase partner Hologic’s share in their blood and plasma screening business for $1.85 billion in cash. We don’t expect any significant changes to our valuations for either firm following the deal. The move appears to come at a fair price and strategically fits Grifols’ desire to vertically integrate its diagnostics business while allowing Hologic to exit a business that wasn’t synergistic with the rest of its diagnostics efforts. The deal is expected to close in t...
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