Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom, respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, while adding Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Company Results | Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/B...
Singapore equities delivered a strong January performance, with the STI rising 5.6% to fresh record highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions that drove flight-to-safety flows. Manufacturing activity remained in mild expansion, led by electronics and AI-related demand. Market/corporate catalysts during the month include REIT earnings, IPO interest in Catalist and continued strength in gold-linked counters.
Greater China Economics | PMI January PMI was below Bloomberg’s consensus, as the manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2 (-0.9pt mom). The manufacturing output sub-index stayed marginally expansionary, while the new orders and new export orders sub-indices weakened. The purchase prices sub-index surged, pointing to higher cost pressure for manufacturers. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4 (-0.8pt mom), mainly driven by a sharp contraction in the construction industry index. Large enterpri...
Our Alpha Picks outperformed the STI on a price-weighted and market cap-weighted basis but underperformed on an equalweighted basis. For Feb 26, we add CAO, RGL, HLA, and PROP and remove CLAR, KEP, MPM, and RSTON. The portfolio continues to be well-positioned ahead of expected EQDP-driven flows into small- and mid-cap stocks.
Greater China Economics | Money Supply December’s monetary data was mixed. M1 growth slowed further to 3.8% yoy, slightly below expectations, while M2 growth improved to 8.5% yoy on stronger time deposits growth. On a positive note, new bank loans rebounded to Rmb0.91t, mainly driven by corporate and government borrowing, and new TSF also beat forecasts. However, outstanding bank loan growth stayed at a year-low of 6.4% yoy and TSF growth eased to 8.3% yoy, underscoring still-fragile credit ...
We recently gave a presentation at the Singapore Equities Forum organised by the SAS and SGX. The forum covered a broad range of topics including the construction and property industries, as well as the small- and mid-cap sector. Stocks mentioned include DFI, FCT, FEH RSTON, VALUE, MPM, CSE, SANLI, ADDV and PRIME. Our small- and mid-cap top picks are FEH, VALUE, CAO and RSTON.
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December pic...
Greater China Sector Update | IT Hardware We see an acceleration in China’s AI development progress in 2026, with NVIDIA successfully obtaining the US government’s approval on H200 sales to China, which will provide a major boost to the Chinese the AI application users. We also believe that the shipment volume of domestic AI chips will receive minimal impact, with foreign chips acting as a “demand gap filler” while the establishment of a capable local supply chain remains the highest priorit...
We remain bullish on the Singapore market in 2026 given positive earnings growth prospects as well as funds flow momentum. We forecast a 2026 year-end target of 5,000 for the STI, implying an 8% upside from current levels. Key stock picks are CLAR, CLI, CIT, DFI, FR, GENS, KEP, OCBC, SE, ASL, CAREIT, CSE, FEH and VALUE.
Highlights • We remain bullish on the Singapore market in 2026 given positive earnings growth prospects as well as funds flow momentum. • We forecast a 2026 year-end target of 5,000 for the STI, implying an 8% upside from current levels. • Key stock picks are CLAR, CLI, CIT, DFI, FR, GENS, KEP, OCBC, SE, ASL, CAREIT, CSE, FEH and VALUE.
Greater China Economics | PMI December Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, back in the expansionary zone for the first time since March. Non-manufacturing PMI also improved at 50.2 (+0.7pt mom), driven by a rebound in construction activity, while services PMI remained slightly contractionary pointing to weak domestic demand. Enterprise PMI showed divergent trends, with large firms leading the improvement. Overall, the December data points to uneven recovery despite the positive headline numbers....
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
Our Nov 25 Alpha Picks portfolio returned 2.2% mom, in line with the STI, while weighted portfolios outperformed. Gains were led by CSE, ASL and MPM. For Dec 25, we add KEP, UGAI and SATS, and remove FRKN, UMS and SIA. The refreshed portfolio remains positioned to benefit from ongoing EQDP-driven interest in small-/mid-cap names.
CSE delivered a strong top-line growth in 3Q25, led by a surge in electrification as major 2024 projects made progress. Communications and automation also saw steady underlying growth. While the orderbook eased on fewer low-margin municipal projects, we expect CSE to catch up on large-scale data centre project wins in the near term. Maintain BUY and target price of S$1.22.
Greater China Company Results | Miniso (MNSO US/BUY/US$19.57/Target: US$26.80) Miniso's 3Q25 revenue rose 28% yoy, reaching the high end of its guidance, while adjusted operating profit grew 15% yoy. Miniso brand’s SSSG improved sequentially in both domestic market and overseas markets. For 4Q25, SSS in both domestic and US markets are expected to reach low teens. Revenue is expected to grow 25-30% yoy, and adjusted operating profit should grow by double digits yoy, with the yoy decline in adjus...
Top Stories Company Update | CSE Global (CSE SP/BUY/S$0.945/Target: S$1.22) CSE delivered a strong top-line growth in 3Q25, led by a surge in electrification as major 2024 projects made progress. Communications and automation also saw steady underlying growth. While the orderbook eased on fewer low-margin municipal projects, we expect CSE to catch up on large-scale data centre project wins in the near term. Maintain BUY and target price of S$1.22. Market Spotlight • US stocks climbed on Friday,...
Top Stories Company Results | Riverstone Holdings (RSTON SP/BUY/S$0.81/Target: S$1.05) Riverstone’s 3Q25 results were in line, with earnings of RM52m (+15% qoq) as stronger cleanroom demand was driven by AI-related industries. Maintain BUY with a 7% higher target price of S$1.05. Current share price weakness presents a good buying opportunity, as the market may have overlooked the lumpy dividend payout in 4Q25. The stock is trading at a >7% yield for 2025. Company Results | SEA (SE US/BUY/...
Greater China Sector Update | China And Hong Kong Property On 10 November, the State Council vowed to expand C-REITs for POEs. However, demand stays weak: home sales from 1-10 November in 28 mainland cities fell 45% yoy, with prices trending down. In Hong Kong, the potential supply of private homes rose 1% qoq, yet property prices and rents showed improving fundamentals. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT; favour mainland developers with strong retail portfolios (CR Land, Longfor); in Hong Kong, favour SHKP...
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