In this quarterly strategy report, we look to evaluate where we are with regards the bull market conditions, and where those indicators might be headed, factoring in the downside risks, from Trump tariffs and the US economy, BoJ actions, Japanese earnings and valuations.
Analyst Pelham Smithers reviews the business outlook for Sony and explains why, under the guidance of incoming President / CEO and current CFO Hiroki Totoki, it is likely to look quite different this time next year. The company should deliver FY24 Q4 OP ahead of implied guidance [¥127bil] but perhaps not quite as good as consensus [¥194bil], depending on what happens to mark-to-market losses in Financial Services. The year ahead looks very exciting, particularly on the gaming side, where strong ...
With shares in Tesla (TSLA US) surging, on broker reports suggesting that the EV maker’s full self-drive [FSD] / autonomous drive [AD] opportunity set increases enormously under a new Trump administration (eg removal of automated-vehicle crash data), an interesting question for the Japanese stock market arises. Analyst Pelham Smithers wonders whether Panasonic (6752 JT) might also be a beneficiary.
Following the recent results season where several leading semiconductor and SPE companies globally produced either disappointing results or guidance, we look at where the semiconductor industry is at present, where it looks to be headed in 2025 and identify opportunities in the Japanese IC / SPE space.
According to Reuters [19 Nov], Sony is in discussions to buy Japanese publisher Kadokawa. The news sent Kadokawa shares limit up (+23%) to an all-time high. Sony has long been interested in different parts of Kadokawa, and in recent years has formed a capital alliance with Kadokawa to co-develop IP (in conjunction with CyberAgent), as well as taking a stake in FromSoftware. However, the idea that Sony would acquire the whole of Kadokawa is something of a surprise, given the bits-and-pieces natur...
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba set out the first plan of his administration, which is to spend ¥10tril through FY30 further revitalizing Japan’s one-time globally dominant chip industry. The move comes after a ¥2tril package was announced last year and is seen as party of a ¥50tril private-public investment in Japanese chipmaking over the next decade. Pelham Smithers discusses beneficiaries.
Sony produced an excellent set of results for FY24 Q2 but did not revise up the full-year guidance. Pelham Smithers reviews each division and notes that that with 1H OP at 56% of the full year guidance, it is on course to come in ahead of targets.
It has been a busy week for bean counters in the video games industry, with the release of global console sales data for September, US software and hardware markets for September, and weekly software sales for UK, Japan and Steam. These figures seem to paint a similar picture: hardware sales are bad, though not as bad as over the summer, while software sales are okay. Pelham Smithers elaborates.
News that the French eyewear / lens maker EssilorLuxoticca has taken a 5% stake in Nikon (7731 JT) is fascinating, and not just because it comes hard on the heels of the Couche-Tard / Seven & I (3382 JT) discussions. Like the Seven & I situation, it is unlikely that EL would want to own all of Nikon. So: should it gain control of the Japanese precision equipment maker, some very spicy divisions would be up for sale.
When the BoJ raised rates in March, it had been 17 years since it had last done so, though the world was very different then. While the July rate hike was unlikely to move the economic needle, the question now is what else might follow the subsequent financial market maelstrom. Pelham Smithers discusses the outlook for Japan’s macro environment, what new fiscal policies the new PM might introduce, how the BoJ might react and the all-important trend in corporate earnings. This then leads us to...
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