reports
- Jean Danjou
- Oliver Metzger
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 30/04/2024 Date Performance dep...
L’offre de BHP sur Anglo American a confirmé l’intérêt des minières pour le cuivre dans un contexte de tensions croissantes sur la production et de difficultés à faire aboutir les projets. Les perspectives d’Anglo (Neutre) dans le cuivre sont désormais mieux valorisées, c’est aussi le cas de BHP (Neutre vs Sous-performance) mais pas encore assez, selon nous, sur Rio Tinto (Surperformance vs Neutre). En aval, Nexans et Montana Aerospace sont nos valeurs préférées (Surperformance) vs Au...
CRI CHARGEURS SA
VCT VICAT-CIMENTS VICAT SA
FLY SOCIETE FONCIERE LYONNAISE SA
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
VETO VETOQUINOL SA
BAMNB KONINKLIJKE BAM GROEP NV
BIG BIGBEN INTERACTIVE SA
GMM GRAMMER AG
FIE FIELMANN AG
DEZ DEUTZ AG
VLK VAN LANSCHOT KEMPEN NV CERT. OF SHS
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
FCC FOMENTO DE CONSTRUCCIONES Y CONTRATAS S.A.
ROYAL VOPAK NV
PSG PROSEGUR COMPANIA DE SEGURIDAD SA
FTG111 FLATEXDEGIRO AG
UNI UNICAJA BANCO S.A.
MOR MORPHOSYS AG
NFN NFON AG
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
NACON NACON SASU
ALHRS HYDROGEN REFUELING SOLUTIONS
ANTIN ANTIN INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS
FPE3 FUCHS PETROLUB SE
EXN EXCLUSIVE NETWORKS SA
WAGA WAGA ENERGY SA
- Jean Danjou
- Oliver Metzger
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 04/30/2024
BHP's bid for Anglo American has confirmed interest from miners in copper in the context of increasingly challenged production and difficulties in fully completing projects. Anglo’s (Neutral) prospects in copper are now better valued and this is also the case for BHP (Neutral vs Underperform) although not so for Rio Tinto (Outperform vs Neutral). Downstream, Nexans and Montana Aerospace are our Top Picks (Outperform) vs Aurubis, Rexel and Prysmian (Neutral). - ...
CRI CHARGEURS SA
VCT VICAT-CIMENTS VICAT SA
FLY SOCIETE FONCIERE LYONNAISE SA
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
VETO VETOQUINOL SA
BAMNB KONINKLIJKE BAM GROEP NV
BIG BIGBEN INTERACTIVE SA
GMM GRAMMER AG
FIE FIELMANN AG
DEZ DEUTZ AG
VLK VAN LANSCHOT KEMPEN NV CERT. OF SHS
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
FCC FOMENTO DE CONSTRUCCIONES Y CONTRATAS S.A.
ROYAL VOPAK NV
PSG PROSEGUR COMPANIA DE SEGURIDAD SA
FTG111 FLATEXDEGIRO AG
UNI UNICAJA BANCO S.A.
MOR MORPHOSYS AG
NFN NFON AG
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
NACON NACON SASU
ALHRS HYDROGEN REFUELING SOLUTIONS
ANTIN ANTIN INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS
FPE3 FUCHS PETROLUB SE
EXN EXCLUSIVE NETWORKS SA
WAGA WAGA ENERGY SA
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Nokian Renkaat Oyj : Début d’année plus difficile que prévu
>Résultats inférieurs aux attentes mais guidance confirmée - Nokian Tyres a publié des résultats T1 2024 nettement inférieurs à nos attentes et celles du consensus avec un CA seulement stable à 237 M€ (consensus 265 M€) et un EBIT ajusté de -15 M€ (consensus +4 M€, ODDO BHF -3 M€), notamment pénalisé par des facteurs externes (grèves en Finlande, impacts Mer Rouge) qui ont davantage impacté sa production que ce que nous anticipions (impact CA de ~25 M€ au T1) et qui ...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Nokian Renkaat Oyj : A tougher start to the year than expected
>Earnings short of estimates but guidance confirmed - Nokian Tyres reported Q1 2024 earnings far below our estimates and those of the consensus with sales merely stable at € 237m (consensus € 265m and adjusted EBIT of -€ 15m (consensus +€ 4m, ODDO BHF -€ 3m), notably penalised by external factors (strikes in Finland, disruptions in the Red Sea) which have hit the group’s production harder than we expected (sales impact of ~€ 25m in Q1), and which should continue to af...
- Miika Ihamaki
Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR9.00) - Soft Q1, with or without setbacks
The Q1 results were below our expectations, even after adjusting for the negatives on the group profit from the political strikes in Finland and the Red Sea conflict. On a positive note, the PCT price/mix was guided to hold up well, partly offsetting our revised lower sales expectations, while the Romanian factory appears to be ramping up on schedule. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to EUR9.0 (9.5), after lowering our 2024–2026e clean EBIT by c6% on average.
- Miika Ihamaki
Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR9.50) - Directionally better
For 2024, Nokian Tyres is set to see a boost in capacity, but most of the increase should stem from less-profitable contract manufacturing, leaving limited upside potential to consensus, in our view. For Q1, we expect reiterated 2024 guidance on slightly improved sell-in trends and an update on capacity expansion. We reiterate our HOLD but have nudged up our target price to EUR9.5 (9.0).
- Aurelien Sivignon
MERY MERCIALYS SA
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
ABVX ABIVAX SA
WHA WERELDHAVE N.V.
LNA LNA SANTE SA
MBB MBB INDUSTRIES SE
BAMNB KONINKLIJKE BAM GROEP NV
VASTN VASTNED RETAIL NV
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
MELE MELEXIS NV
TKO TIKEHAU CAPITAL SCA
UNI UNICAJA BANCO S.A.
JEN JENOPTIK AG
TMV TEAMVIEWER AG
COP COMPUGROUP MEDICAL SE & CO. KGAA
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
- Aurelien Sivignon
MERY MERCIALYS SA
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
ABVX ABIVAX SA
WHA WERELDHAVE N.V.
LNA LNA SANTE SA
MBB MBB INDUSTRIES SE
BAMNB KONINKLIJKE BAM GROEP NV
VASTN VASTNED RETAIL NV
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
MELE MELEXIS NV
TKO TIKEHAU CAPITAL SCA
UNI UNICAJA BANCO S.A.
JEN JENOPTIK AG
TMV TEAMVIEWER AG
COP COMPUGROUP MEDICAL SE & CO. KGAA
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Nokian Renkaat Oyj : Making headway but still a long way to go
>Q4 earnings slightly below expectations, low end of the FY guidance range - Nokian Tyres reported Q4 2023 earnings that slightly missed our estimates and the consensus with sales up 2% to € 368m (consensus € 369m) and adjusted EBIT of € 44.5m (consensus € 47m), buoyed by progress in passenger tyres (although less than hoped). Over the full year, the performance therefore came in at the lower end of the guidance range, which was revised down at the end of October (sal...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Nokian Renkaat Oyj : Des progrès mais la route est encore longue
>T4 légèrement inférieur aux attentes, bas de la fourchette de la guidance annuelle - Nokian Tyres a publié des résultats T4 2023 légèrement inférieurs à nos attentes et celles du consensus avec un CA en hausse de 2% à 368 M€ (consensus 369 M€) et un EBIT ajusté de 44.5 M€ (consensus 47 M€), porté par les progrès dans le tourisme (bien que moindres qu’espéré). Sur l’année, la performance ressort donc en bas de la fourchette de la guidance qui avait été abaissée fin o...
- Miika Ihamaki
Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR9.00) - Mixed Q4, but better direction
Nokian Tyres expects a better 2024 ahead, driven by improved sell-in activity and higher supply. However, in our view overall Q4 results were soft and the outlook involves an element of uncertainty, while 2024 guidance also seemed vague. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to EUR9.0 (8.5), with a c6% dividend yield lending solid support for the share price.
- Miika Ihamaki
Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR8.50) - More optimistic on 2024e
We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to EUR8.5 (7.5) to reflect our c2–3% higher clean EBIT for 2024–2025e and peers’ re-rating since our last update. We expect a soft Q4, but dwindling dealer stocks and potentially lower interest rates should allow for a more positive 2024e demand picture. However, we find the current valuation fair.
- Miika Ihamaki
Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR7.50) - A not so merry winter season
The Q3 results were weak, as expected, given the pre-released headline results last week, and offered limited incremental news, in our view. We reiterate our HOLD but have reduced our target price to EUR7.5 (8) following c10% cuts to our clean 2024–2025e EBIT on average. We remain neutral given low near-term visibility and weak trading conditions, although the new capacity ramp-up should eventually lead to solid profit growth.
- Jean-François Granjon
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 25/10/2023 Date Performance dep...
En amont des publications T3, nous sommes confiants pour le secteur, qui devrait confirmer le scenario de soft landing, ce qui limite les risques de warning. Toutefois, nous redoutons la réaction du marché alors que les commentaires devraient indiquer une poursuite du ralentissement au T4 menant à des croissances embarquées faibles début 2024. Ceci nous conduit à abaisser nos prévisions de croissance de plusieurs titres et limite le momentum du secteur. Dans ce contexte, nos top picks...
LHA DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA AG
SOP SOPRA STERIA GROUP SA
GTT GAZTRANSPORT & TECHNIGAZ SA
IDL ID LOGISTICS GROUP
KORI KORIAN SA
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
IAG INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP SA
PIG HAULOTTE GROUP SA
GOE GROUPE GORGE SA
CDA COMPAGNIE DES ALPES SA
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
NEX NEXANS SA
EZJ EASYJET PLC
AF AIR FRANCE-KLM SA
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
MAREL MAREL HF.
ROYAL VOPAK NV
ALVIV VISIATIV SA
MELE MELEXIS NV
DR0 DEUTSCHE ROHSTOFF AG
MVC METROVACESA SA
ZEL PHARMA MAR SA
BLV BELIEVE SA
OVH OVH GROUPE
- Jean-François Granjon
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 10/25/2023 Date Performance sin...
Ahead of the Q3 publications, we are confident on the sector, which should confirm a soft-landing scenario which limits risks of a warning. However, we fear the market’s reaction as comments are likely to indicate a continuing slowdown in Q4, resulting in weak embedded growth in early 2024. This leads us to lower our growth forecasts for several companies and limits sector momentum. In this context, our Top Picks are: Sopra Steria, Indra, Alten, Bechtle, Wavestone and Assystem. - ...
SOP SOPRA STERIA GROUP SA
GTT GAZTRANSPORT & TECHNIGAZ SA
IDL ID LOGISTICS GROUP
KORI KORIAN SA
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
PIG HAULOTTE GROUP SA
GOE GROUPE GORGE SA
CDA COMPAGNIE DES ALPES SA
NEX NEXANS SA
MAREL MAREL HF.
ROYAL VOPAK NV
ALVIV VISIATIV SA
MELE MELEXIS NV
DR0 DEUTSCHE ROHSTOFF AG
MVC METROVACESA SA
ZEL PHARMA MAR SA
BLV BELIEVE SA
OVH OVH GROUPE
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Nokian Renkaat Oyj : Q3 well below expectations, FY outlook sharply cu...
>Q3 well below expectations (-36% on the EBIT line), hit by volumes - Nokian Tyres released preliminary Q3 2023 earnings yesterday evening and they came out far lower than expected (-30% on sales and -36% on adjusted EBIT), mostly because of weaker volumes as already mentioned by most of the group’s peers (destocking effect) but particularly pronounced in the case of Nokian Tyres as the most sluggish momentum applies to the winter tyres segment which remains its core ...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Nokian Renkaat Oyj : T3 nettement inférieur aux attentes, forte révisi...
>T3 nettement inférieur aux attentes (-36% sur l’EBIT), pénalisé par les volumes - Nokian Tyres a publié, hier soir, des résultats préliminaires T3 2023 nettement inférieurs aux attentes (-30% sur le CA et -36% sur l’EBIT ajusté), essentiellement en raison d’une faiblesse plus marquée sur le plan des volumes, déjà mentionnée par la plupart des concurrents (déstockage) et d’autant plus importante pour Nokian Tyres que le momentum le plus difficile concerne les pneus hi...
- Miika Ihamaki
Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR8.00) - Tyres may not be in season
Nokian Tyres’ Q3e will be boosted by significant volume growth, but macro headwinds and high stock levels in the distribution are likely to weigh on near-term demand. In our view, increased seasonality adds to the full-year guidance downside risk. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to EUR8 (9) after reducing our Segment EBIT by 7–2% for 2023–2024e.
- Sinan Doganli
ZIL2 ELRINGKLINGER AG
WTB WHITBREAD PLC
POM PLASTIC OMNIUM SE
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
ICAD ICADE SA
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
ROYAL VOPAK NV
CIE CIE AUTOMOTIVE S.A.
SHOT SCANDIC HOTELS GROUP
MEL MELIA HOTELS INTERNATIONAL S.A.
NHH NH HOTEL GROUP SA
SOW SOFTWARE AG
VOS VOSSLOH AG
CAF CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
IHG INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC
FUR FUGRO NV
- Sinan Doganli
ZIL2 ELRINGKLINGER AG
WTB WHITBREAD PLC
POM PLASTIC OMNIUM SE
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
ICAD ICADE SA
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
ROYAL VOPAK NV
CIE CIE AUTOMOTIVE S.A.
SHOT SCANDIC HOTELS GROUP
NVG NAVIGATOR COMPANY SA
MEL MELIA HOTELS INTERNATIONAL S.A.
NHH NH HOTEL GROUP SA
SOW SOFTWARE AG
VOS VOSSLOH AG
CAF CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
IHG INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC
FUR FUGRO NV
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