Top Stories Sector Update | Banking Bond yields have risen as conflicts in the Middle East create uncertainties over the outlook for inflation. We now expect the Fed to pause rate cuts and keep the Fed Funds Rate stable at 3.5% in 2026. The OECD forecasts headline inflation in the US spiking temporarily to 4.2% in 2026, before falling to 1.6% in 2027. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Our top pick is DBS (BUY/Target: S$67.55) for its attractive 2026 dividend yield of 5.6%. We also like OCBC (BUY/Target: S$...
With war clouds, an oil shock, and market volatility, we focus on Singapore’s defensive sectors and quality blue-chip names. Deployment of funds from MAS’ Equity Market Development Programme could provide some respite in March and April. Key stock picks are CLAR, CLI, CIT, DBS, DFI, KEP, SE, ST, YZJSGD, ASL, CAREIT, CSE, DELFI, FEH, IFAST, UGAI and VALUE.
Top Stories Strategy | Singapore Stock Picks In A Turbulent Market With war clouds, an oil shock, and market volatility, we focus on Singapore’s defensive sectors and quality blue-chip names. Deployment of funds from MAS’ Equity Market Development Programme could provide some respite in March and April. Key stock picks are CLAR, CLI, CIT, DBS, DFI, KEP, SE, ST, YZJSGD, ASL, CAREIT, CSE, DELFI, FEH, IFAST, UGAI and VALUE. Market Spotlight US stocks were higher on Monday, with all indexes risi...
Greater China Economics | China China set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% yoy, in line with expectations, while maintaining a 4% fiscal deficit ratio. Fiscal policy remains the main growth driver, supported by Rmb4.4t in local government special bonds and Rmb1.3t in ultra-long treasury bonds, while monetary policy stays accommodative. Policy priorities focus on AI+, New Quality Productive Forces, industrial upgrading, and targeted consumption support, alongside welfare improvements and ...
Singapore equities extended gains in February, with the STI rising 1.8% to near the 5,000 level after reaching a record high above 5,040. Market sentiment was supported by steady manufacturing expansion and selective corporate strength, including Yangzijiang Shipbuilding’s strong earnings. Global markets remained cautious amid AI-related concerns, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raised risks of higher oil prices.
Banks’ 4Q25 results were characterised by stability in NIM and sustainable growth in wealth management. In terms of asset quality, OCBC was more resilient, while DBS and UOB saw weaknesses from exposures to commercial real estate. Banks will consider returning capital to shareholders through special dividends if they cannot complete their share buyback programmes. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Our top pick is DBS for its attractive 2026 dividend yield of 5.6%. We also like OCBC for its strategic shift to...
The Singapore Budget for 2026 did not provide any major surprises, with the financial sector likely to be the most identifiable market beneficiary. We remain bullish on the Singapore market in 2026 given positive earnings growth prospects as well as funds flow momentum. Key stock picks are CLAR, CLI, CIT, DBS, DFI, FR, GENS, KEP, SE, ASL, CAREIT, CSE, FEH, IFAST, UGAI and VALUE.
Top Stories Strategy | Bullish Foundations In Place For 2026 The Singapore Budget for 2026 did not provide any major surprises, with the financial sector likely to be the most identifiable market beneficiary. We remain bullish on the Singapore market in 2026 given positive earnings growth prospects as well as funds flow momentum. Key stock picks are CLAR, CLI, CIT, DBS, DFI, FR, GENS, KEP, SE, ASL, CAREIT, CSE, FEH, IFAST, UGAI and VALUE. Company Results | Singapore Telecommunications (ST SP/...
Top Stories Company Results | DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP/BUY/S$58.19/Target: S$66.75) Wealth management and loans-related fees saw a significant sequential pullback of 19% and 25% qoq respectively due to seasonal weakness. Specific provisions for chunky Hong Kong real estate exposure were cushioned by a write-back in general provisions. NIM compression moderated by a smaller 3bp qoq in 4Q25 and exit NIM was stable at 1.92% in Jan 26. Management expects two Fed rate cuts in 2026 but sees firm...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Recent equity placements proposals by Zhuhai Huafa Properties and Seazen signal improving equity financing conditions for mainland developers. Expected losses in 2025 will lower BPS for SOE/quasi-SOE developers, increasing the likelihood of state-owned capital injections amid industry consolidation. Jan 26 property sales data shows improved yoy performances in both the primary and secondary markets, partly due to a low base in Jan 25 which was impacte...
Wealth management and loans-related fees saw a significant sequential pullback of 19% and 25% qoq respectively due to seasonal weakness. Specific provisions for chunky Hong Kong real estate exposure were cushioned by a write-back in general provisions. NIM compression moderated by a smaller 3bp qoq in 4Q25 and exit NIM was stable at 1.92% in Jan 26. Management expects two Fed rate cuts in 2026 but sees firmer SORA at 1.25%. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$66.75.
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom, respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, while adding Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Company Results | Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/B...
Singapore equities delivered a strong January performance, with the STI rising 5.6% to fresh record highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions that drove flight-to-safety flows. Manufacturing activity remained in mild expansion, led by electronics and AI-related demand. Market/corporate catalysts during the month include REIT earnings, IPO interest in Catalist and continued strength in gold-linked counters.
Greater China Economics | PMI January PMI was below Bloomberg’s consensus, as the manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2 (-0.9pt mom). The manufacturing output sub-index stayed marginally expansionary, while the new orders and new export orders sub-indices weakened. The purchase prices sub-index surged, pointing to higher cost pressure for manufacturers. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4 (-0.8pt mom), mainly driven by a sharp contraction in the construction industry index. Large enterpri...
The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair has strengthened the Fed’s credibility in fighting inflation, leading to an abrupt unwind for safe haven assets. Liquidity exiting safe haven assets, such as the Singapore dollar, could lead to firmer domestic interest rates in 2026. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. The Fed regaining its credibility is supportive of our thesis that banks benefit from the Goldilocks economy. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) and OCBC (Target: S$23.65). DBS provides an attractive 20...
Top Stories Strategy | Singapore Outlook The Singapore market outlook webinar for retail clients received over 200 attendees. We outlined our 2026 strategy, highlighting large-cap picks (DBS, GENS, KEP, SE), small-mid-cap selections (FEH, VALUE, RSTON, CAO), and top five S-REITs (CLAR, KREIT, LREIT, CAREIT, NTTDCR). Key questions include potential EQDP beneficiaries, small-mid-cap stocks, property counters, banks and REITS. Market Spotlight • US stocks were higher on Thursday, with the DJI...
The Singapore market outlook webinar for retail clients received over 200 attendees. We outlined our 2026 strategy, highlighting large-cap picks (DBS, GENS, KEP, SE), small-mid-cap selections (FEH, VALUE, RSTON, CAO), and top five S-REITs (CLAR, KREIT, LREIT, CAREIT, NTTDCR). Key questions include potential EQDP beneficiaries, small-mid-cap stocks, property counters, banks and REITS.
We expect 4Q25 to be characterised by moderation in NIM compression, sustainable growth in wealth management fees and benign asset quality. We project net profit of S$2,523m for DBS (flat yoy, -15% qoq) and S$1,747m for OCBC (+4% yoy, -12% qoq). Maintain OVERWEIGHT. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) and OCBC (Target: S$23.65). DBS provides an attractive 2026 dividend yield of 5.6%. We are excited to hear the new CEO’s strategy, priorities and vision for OCBC.
Top Stories Sector Update | Banking We expect 4Q25 to be characterised by moderation in NIM compression, sustainable growth in wealth management fees and benign asset quality. We project net profit of S$2,523m for DBS (flat yoy, -15% qoq) and S$1,747m for OCBC (+4% yoy, -12% qoq). Maintain OVERWEIGHT. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) and OCBC (Target: S$23.65). DBS provides an attractive 2026 dividend yield of 5.6%. We are excited to hear the new CEO’s strategy, priorities and vision for O...
Top Stories Sector Update | Banks We envisage a Goldilocks economy with steady growth accompanied by low inflation, the ideal balance for sustainable and lengthy economic expansion, supported by the Trump Administration’s new focus on affordability. We anticipate two rate cuts in 1H26 but none in 2H26. Banks provide resilient earnings with growth in non-interest income, including wealth management, offsetting negative impact from NIM compression. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) ...
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