GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation Deflationary pressures persist despite core CPI resilience. INDONESIA Update Darma Henwa (DEWA IJ/BUY/Rp222/Target: Rp372) Sustaining the growth momentum. MALAYSIA Update Uzma (UZMA MK/BUY/RM0.41/Target: RM0.76) Aggressive orderbook growth driven by O&G. However, its five-year recurring income target will miss, due to del...
Banks delivered resilient earnings in 2Q25 (DBS: +0.7% qoq, OCBC: -6.6% qoq) despite severe NIM compression. The downdraft from NIM compression should moderate in 2H25. Asset quality remains relatively stable, unruffled by uncertainties from reciprocal tariffs. Banks provide an attractive dividend yield of 5.9% for 2025. BUY OCBC (Target: S$20.15) for its low 2025F P/B of 1.26x. HOLD DBS (Target: S$52.80) for its 2025 yield of 6.9%. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade: July’s data beats expectations, further near-term strength likely. Sector Automobile: Weekly: YOY PV sales growth remains negative for three straight weeks. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Initiate Coverage Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co (002050 CH/BUY/Rmb27.37/Target: Rmb36.50): Innovative Thermal management leader driving sustainable growth. Initiate coverage with BUY. Target price: Rmb36.50 for A-share, HK$40.00 fo...
DBS achieved a net profit of S$2,824m in 2Q25 (up 1% yoy), driven by a surge in wealth management fees (+25% yoy) and growth in treasury customer sales (+16% yoy). NPL ratio eased 0.1ppt qoq to 1.0% with benign NPL formation. DBS’ balance sheet could weather tough times due to an ample management overlay of S$2.6b for general provisions. We expect DBS to step up quarterly DPS by another 6 S cents to 66 S cents in 4Q25. Maintain HOLD. Target price: S$52.80.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP/HOLD/S$49.75/Target: S$52.80) 2Q25: One more hike in quarterly DPS. Genting Singapore (GENS SP/BUY/S$0.755/Target: S$0.89) 2Q25: Below expectations. Earnings hit by higher staff costs and temporary closure of S.E.A Aquarium. Lower target price to S$0.89 on cheap valuations and attractive dividends. United Overseas Bank (UOB SP/NOT RATED/S$35.81) 2Q25: Higher CASA ratio reflects strengthening deposit franchise. Update CSE Global (CSE SP/BUY/S$...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Small-Mid Cap Small mid cap stocks are biggest beneficiaries of MAS’ S$1.1b distribution. Sector Banking Higher reciprocal tariffs could further delay rate cuts. Results SIA Engineering (SIE SP/HOLD/S$3.35/Target: S$3.41) 1QFY26: Earnings beat thanks to strong JV/associate contributions; SIAEC appears fairly valued after recent share price surge. Downgrade to HOLD. TRADERS' CORNER SIA Engineering Co (SIE SP): Trading BUY ...
Higher reciprocal tariffs, ranging from 25% for Japan to 50% for Brazil, would kick in starting 1 August, which could feed into higher inflation in the near term. A subservient next Fed chair sympathetic to Trump’s preference for low interest rates could lead to structurally higher inflation over the long term. Banks could weather volatility from the trade conflict as higher inflation could lead to delays in rate cuts. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. BUY OCBC (Target: S$19.25). HOLD DBS (Target: S$47.00).
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales growth slows to 0.8% yoy. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Update Sun Hung Kai & Co (86 HK/BUY/HK$3.47/Target: HK$5.86) 1H25 Preview: Positive market sentiment improves asset valuations. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Rukun Raharja (RAJA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp2,590) Building the future o...
We expect NIM compression of 7bp qoq for DBS and 8bp qoq for OCBC in 2Q25 due to the synchronised steep drop in SORA and HIBOR. Fee income is expected to grow 13% yoy for DBS and 14% yoy for OCBC, driven by wealth management. We expect net profit of S$2,691m for DBS (-4% yoy, -7% qoq) and S$1,767m for OCBC (-9% yoy, -6% qoq). Easing of trade conflict and closing of more trade deals is positive for economic growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. BUY OCBC (Target: S$19.25). HOLD DBS (Target: S$47.00).
Banks delivered resilient earnings in 1Q25 (DBS: +15% qoq, OCBC: +12% qoq) supported by a sequential rebound in non-interest income. Banks have assessed their first-order direct impact from vulnerable sectors to be manageable at 2-3% of total loans. They have also recommitted themselves to their capital management plans announced in Feb 25. BUY OCBC (Target: S$19.30) for its focus on ASEAN. HOLD DBS (Target: S$45.45) for its 2025 yield of 6.9%. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Banking 1Q25 round-up: First-order direct impact assessed to be manageable. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. Results Civmec (CVL SP/HOLD/S$0.815/Target:S$0.80) - 3QFY25: Results in line; outlook remains challenging as project delays extend. Marco Polo Marine (MPM SP/BUY/S$0.044/Target:S$0.066) - 1HFY25: Earnings in line; poised for growth in offshore wind sector. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCB...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PEV sales down wow due to holiday. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV. Internet: Expecting ample monetisation potential on promising game pipelines in 2025. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.31/Target: HK$12.00): 1Q25: EBITDA declines 11% yoy; China’s consumer confidence and on-premise channels show no significant recovery; expects sell-in to match sell-through in 2H25. Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK/BUY/HK$3...
DBS achieved a net profit of S$2,897m in 1Q25 (down 2% yoy), driven by a surge in wealth management fees (+35% yoy) and growth in net interest income (+5% yoy). Management sees its overlay for general provisions of S$2.6b as adequate. DBS is committed to returning excess capital of S$8b to shareholders, comprising capital return dividend of S$5b (15 S cents per quarter to be paid over three years in 2025-27) and share buyback of S$3b. Maintain HOLD. Target price: S$40.90.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP/HOLD/S$43.09/Target: S$40.90) 1Q25: Wealth management leading the way. Riverstone Holdings (RSTON SP/HOLD/S$0.855/Target: S$0.82) 1Q25: Facing near-term headwinds; downgrade to HOLD. TRADERS' CORNER Singapore Exchange (SGX SP): Trading BUY DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP): Trading SELL
We should start to witness NIM compression at 6bp qoq for DBS and 7bp qoq for OCBC in 1Q25 due to a steep fall in SORA by 51bp to 2.56%. Fee income is expected to grow 10% yoy for DBS and 9% yoy for OCBC, driven by wealth management. We expect net profit of S$2,746m for DBS (-7% yoy, +9% qoq) and S$1,874m for OCBC (-5% yoy, +11% qoq). Asset quality is stable now but could deteriorate in 2H25. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. BUY OCBC (Target: S$16.90). HOLD DBS (Target: S$40.00).
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Banking 1Q25 results preview: Calm before the storm. Update Singapore Airlines (SIA SP/HOLD/S$6.35/Target: S$6.22) Expect yoy softer 4QFY25 earnings; FY26 to benefit from weak fuel prices. Maintain HOLD. MONTHLY TECHNICAL - INDICES OUTLOOK FTSE Straits Times Index (STI IND): Price remains bullish
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Banking Flexible adaption in response to disapproval from treasury markets. Upgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Update Centurion Corp (CENT SP/BUY/S$1.12/Target: S$1.48) A safe harbour amid the tragic tariffs. Maintain BUY. TRADERS' CORNER Yangzijiang Financial Holding (YZJFH SP): Trading BUY AEM Holdings (AEM SP): Trading SELL
The Trump Administration made two consecutive concessions: a) a 90-day pause for countries with reciprocal tariffs above the baseline rate of 10%, and b) exemption for electronics products imported from China. Trump has shown himself to be pragmatic enough to accommodate the concerns of businesses and consumers. Upgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. HOLD DBS (Target: S$40.00). Upgrade OCBC to BUY (Target: S$16.90). DBS and OCBC provide attractive 2025 yields of 7.9% and 6.7% respectively.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Tariffs curtail US rate cuts, thereby hindering the recovery of Hong Kong property and tourism; Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China property. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25 Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Update Pekat Group (PEKAT MK/BUY/RM1.08/Target: RM1.45) Good earnings visibility over 2025...
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