A director at DBS Group Holdings Ltd sold 300,000 shares at 42.052SGD and the significance rating of the trade was 71/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years...
Banks posted strong earnings in 3Q24 (DBS: +15% yoy, OCBC: +9% yoy), supported by a surge in wealth management fees and trading income. They are refocusing on capital management after the implementation of Final Basel III Reforms. DBS and UOB intend to return surplus capital of S$3.0b and S$2.5b to shareholders. OCBC could follow suit. Our top pick is OCBC (Target: S$21.00) due to its focus on ASEAN. BUY DBS (Target: S$46.95) for 2025 yield of 5.7%. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Banking 3Q24 round-up: The race to work the balance sheet harder. Results Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC SP/BUY/S$16.06/Target: S$21.00) 3Q24: The tide on capital management has turned. SATS (SATS SP/BUY/S$3.85/Target: S$4.30) 1HFY25: Core earnings beat; stay invested for long-term growth potential. United Overseas Bank (UOB SP/NOT RATED/S$35.69) 3Q24: Uplift in CET-1 CAR reinforces urgency for capital management. Venture Corporation...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP/BUY/S$41.70/Target: S$46.95): 3Q24: Double down on capital management. Genting Singapore (GENS SP/BUY/S$0.84/Target: S$1.12): 3Q24: Weak set of results, below our expectations and consensus forecasts due to weaker gaming segment. Maintain BUY but lower target price to S$1.12. TRADERS’ CORNER Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC SP): Trading BUY Venture Corp (VMS SP): Trading BUY
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade Surprising beat on exports. Sector Automobile Weekly: Trump’s tariff to reshape China automobile supply chain. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao Glass and Desay SV. Results Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK/BUY/HK$36.35/Target: HK$46.00) 3Q24: EBITDA decline due to higher reinvestmen...
DBS achieved a record net profit of S$3,027m in 3Q24 (+15% yoy), driven by a surge in wealth management fees (+55% yoy) and markets trading income (doubled yoy). NPLs declined 8% qoq due to sizeable repayment and recoveries. The Board established a new share buyback programme of S$3b. DBS will continue to return surplus capital to shareholders through step-ups in regular quarterly dividends, special dividends and share buybacks. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$46.95.
OCBC should record stronger loan growth of +2.0% yoy than DBS’ +0.2% yoy in 3Q24. OCBC benefits from the appreciation of MYR (+8.2%), while DBS is affected by the depreciation of USD (-5.2%) and HKD (-4.8%). We see a slight erosion in NIM qoq, offset by resilient growth from wealth and trading income. We expect net profit of S$2,713m for DBS (+5% yoy, -3% qoq) and S$1,904m for OCBC (+5% yoy, -2% qoq). Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. BUY OCBC (Target: S$19.40), followed by DBS (Target: S$42.70).
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Banking 3Q24 results preview: Healthy growth from wealth management, trading income and strengthening regional currencies. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. TRADERS' CORNER DFI Retail Group Holdings (DFI SP): Trading BUY Venture Corp (VMS SP): Trading SELL
Clearly concerned about the direction of its economy, the Chinese government released a raft of stimulus measures last week that seemingly changed investor sentiment towards the Hong Kong and China markets overnight. While structural challenges remain, we highlight 14 stocks that have meaningful revenue exposure to China should these stimulus measures prove to be a game-changer. Our top picks for 2H24 remain CLI, GENS, KEP, MINT, OCBC, SCI, STE, VMS and YZJSGD.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Market Strategy: Outlining the potential impact of US Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Singapore stocks. Sector Banking: Jackson Hole Symposium: The time is now. TRADERS’ CORNER Jiutian Chemical Group (JIUC SP): Trading BUY Seatrium (STM SP): Trading BUY
After Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on 23 August, we see a turning point starting with a US Fed rate cut in Sep 24 and lower rates heading into 2025. In the Singapore market, REITs and the property sector should benefit, as should highly-geared companies and those looking to recycle capital. Our current forecasts have incorporated lower NIMs for banks which we believe are protected by their high dividend yields.
The Fed has switched emphasis to supporting the labour market as “confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%”. The new chapter on rate cuts has commenced. We expect two rate cuts of 25bp in 2H24 and four rate cuts of 25bp in 2025 (one rate cut of 25bp every alternate FOMC meeting). We reduce DBS’ and OCBC’s 2025 earnings by 1.6% and 1.1% respectively. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. BUY OCBC (Target: S$18.50), followed by DBS (Target: S$40.75).
Banks delivered strong earnings in 2Q24 (DBS: +6% yoy, OCBC: +14% yoy) with single-digit growth in net interest income, continued recovery in fees and benign provisions. DBS and OCBC provide attractive 2025 dividend yields of 6.3% and 7.1% respectively. Our top pick is OCBC (Target: S$18.70) due to organic growth from ASEAN countries and the potential to deploy surplus capital to generate inorganic growth. BUY DBS (Target: S$41.50). Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results CSE Global (CSE SP/BUY/S$0.465/Target: S$0.60) 1H24: Results a strong beat on top-line growth. DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP/BUY/S$33.65/Target: S$41.50) 2Q24: A new beginning. Riverstone Holdings (RSTON SP/BUY/S$0.925/Target: S$1.16) 1H24: Results in line; robust demand drives growth. TRADERS' CORNER Aztech Global (AZTECH SP): Trading BUY Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP): Trading BUY
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade: Slowing global manufacturing dampens export growth. Results Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK/BUY/HK$42.15/Target: HK$61.00): 2Q24: Core earnings up 66% yoy, beating estimates. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$61.00. INDONESIA Results Astra International (ASII IJ/SELL/Rp4,630/Target: Rp3,900): 2Q24: Soft performance in most major divisions; in line with expectations. Bank Neo Commerce (BBYB IJ/BUY/Rp234/Target: Rp375): 2Q24: Net loss of Rp20b; expec...
DBS achieved 2Q24 net profit of S$2,789m (+6% yoy) with broad-based growth across net interest income (+5% yoy), fees & commissions (+27% yoy) and other non-interest income (+6% yoy). Management estimates that every 1bp cut in the US Fed Funds Rate will reduce net interest income by S$4m. The lower sensitivity is due to its lower CASA ratio of 50.5% and large portfolio of fixed-rate assets. Tan Su Shan takes over the helm as new CEO in Mar 25. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$41.50.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Banking: 2Q24 results preview: Stable interest rates and resilient earnings. Update Thai Beverage (THBEV SP/BUY/S$0.50/Target:S$0.60): Cementing its top spot in Southeast Asia. TRADERS’ CORNER Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust (PREIT SP): Trading BUY City Developments (CIT SP): Trading BUY
GREATER CHINA Update Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$241.40/Target: HK$310.00) A head of steam or a flash in the pan? Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887 CH/BUY/Rmb26.21/Target: Rmb30.60) Lower 2024 revenue expectation; expects active channel adjustments to lead to better liquid milk sales in 2H24. Meituan (3690 HK/BUY/HK$119.10/Target: HK$139.00) 2Q24 results preview: ISHT margin to stabili...
Growth in net interest income has moderated but fee income continues to sustain its recovery. Asset quality is stable and the level of provisions remains benign. Singapore banks are expected to deliver resilient net profit, with S$2,688m for DBS (+2% yoy but - 9% qoq) and S$1,830m for OCBC (+7% yoy but -8% qoq) in 2Q24, supported by resilient asset quality. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Our top pick is OCBC (BUY/Target: S$18.15), followed by DBS (BUY/Target: S$41.40).
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