Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom, respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, while adding Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Company Results | Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/B...
Singapore equities delivered a strong January performance, with the STI rising 5.6% to fresh record highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions that drove flight-to-safety flows. Manufacturing activity remained in mild expansion, led by electronics and AI-related demand. Market/corporate catalysts during the month include REIT earnings, IPO interest in Catalist and continued strength in gold-linked counters.
Greater China Economics | PMI January PMI was below Bloomberg’s consensus, as the manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2 (-0.9pt mom). The manufacturing output sub-index stayed marginally expansionary, while the new orders and new export orders sub-indices weakened. The purchase prices sub-index surged, pointing to higher cost pressure for manufacturers. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4 (-0.8pt mom), mainly driven by a sharp contraction in the construction industry index. Large enterpri...
The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair has strengthened the Fed’s credibility in fighting inflation, leading to an abrupt unwind for safe haven assets. Liquidity exiting safe haven assets, such as the Singapore dollar, could lead to firmer domestic interest rates in 2026. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. The Fed regaining its credibility is supportive of our thesis that banks benefit from the Goldilocks economy. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) and OCBC (Target: S$23.65). DBS provides an attractive 20...
Top Stories Strategy | Singapore Outlook The Singapore market outlook webinar for retail clients received over 200 attendees. We outlined our 2026 strategy, highlighting large-cap picks (DBS, GENS, KEP, SE), small-mid-cap selections (FEH, VALUE, RSTON, CAO), and top five S-REITs (CLAR, KREIT, LREIT, CAREIT, NTTDCR). Key questions include potential EQDP beneficiaries, small-mid-cap stocks, property counters, banks and REITS. Market Spotlight • US stocks were higher on Thursday, with the DJI...
The Singapore market outlook webinar for retail clients received over 200 attendees. We outlined our 2026 strategy, highlighting large-cap picks (DBS, GENS, KEP, SE), small-mid-cap selections (FEH, VALUE, RSTON, CAO), and top five S-REITs (CLAR, KREIT, LREIT, CAREIT, NTTDCR). Key questions include potential EQDP beneficiaries, small-mid-cap stocks, property counters, banks and REITS.
We expect 4Q25 to be characterised by moderation in NIM compression, sustainable growth in wealth management fees and benign asset quality. We project net profit of S$2,523m for DBS (flat yoy, -15% qoq) and S$1,747m for OCBC (+4% yoy, -12% qoq). Maintain OVERWEIGHT. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) and OCBC (Target: S$23.65). DBS provides an attractive 2026 dividend yield of 5.6%. We are excited to hear the new CEO’s strategy, priorities and vision for OCBC.
Top Stories Sector Update | Banking We expect 4Q25 to be characterised by moderation in NIM compression, sustainable growth in wealth management fees and benign asset quality. We project net profit of S$2,523m for DBS (flat yoy, -15% qoq) and S$1,747m for OCBC (+4% yoy, -12% qoq). Maintain OVERWEIGHT. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) and OCBC (Target: S$23.65). DBS provides an attractive 2026 dividend yield of 5.6%. We are excited to hear the new CEO’s strategy, priorities and vision for O...
Top Stories Sector Update | Banks We envisage a Goldilocks economy with steady growth accompanied by low inflation, the ideal balance for sustainable and lengthy economic expansion, supported by the Trump Administration’s new focus on affordability. We anticipate two rate cuts in 1H26 but none in 2H26. Banks provide resilient earnings with growth in non-interest income, including wealth management, offsetting negative impact from NIM compression. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) ...
Greater China Company Update | Baidu (9888 HK/BUY/HK$146.60/Target: HK$166.00) We are optimistic on Baidu as the Kunlunxin spin-off could help unlock financial value for Baidu and strengthen its AI ecosystem. Baidu announced that on 1 Jan 26, Kunlunxin applied for a listing on the HK Stock Exchange. Following the spin-off, Kunlunxin will remain a consolidated subsidiary, with Baidu retaining a controlling 59% stake. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$166.00 (US$185.00). Company ...
We envisage a Goldilocks economy with steady growth accompanied by low inflation, the ideal balance for sustainable and lengthy economic expansion, supported by the Trump Administration’s new focus on affordability. We anticipate two rate cuts in 1H26 but none in 2H26. Banks provide resilient earnings with growth in non-interest income, including wealth management, offsetting negative impact from NIM compression. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) and OCBC (Target: S$23.65) for att...
Top Stories Company Update | Hong Leong Asia (HLA SP/BUY/S$2.13/Target: S$2.82) A recent site visit highlights HLA's exposure to Singapore's construction demand. Key updates include an AI pilot programme to improve efficiency and a material growth opportunity in diesel gensets for data centres. Maintain BUY with a target price of S$2.82. Market Spotlight • US stocks were higher on Tuesday, with all three major indexes advancing as the healthcare, consumer discretionary and communication service...
Top Stories Sector Update | Banking DBS and OCBC benefitted from spectacular surges in wealth management fees of 31% and 53% yoy respectively in 3Q25 as high-net-worth clients deployed their funds in investment products. UOB recognised one-off pre-emptive general allowances of S$615m in 3Q25 to strengthen its general provision coverage from 0.8% to 1.0% and loan loss coverage from 88% to 100%. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Influx of safe haven liquidity would continue to keep domestic interest rate...
DBS and OCBC benefitted from spectacular surges in wealth management fees of 31% and 53% yoy respectively in 3Q25 as high-net-worth clients deployed their funds in investment products. UOB recognised one-off pre-emptive general allowances of S$615m in 3Q25 to strengthen its general provision coverage from 0.8% to 1.0% and loan loss coverage from 88% to 100%. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Influx of safe haven liquidity would continue to keep domestic interest rates depressed. BUY OCBC (Target: S$20.22)...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The anti-involution policy boosted OEMs’ 3Q25 earnings by ending the price war. However, the industry disruptor BYD saw worsened liquidity due to sales slowdown and inventory pile-up. Auto part companies saw margin erosion in 3Q25 due to delayed impacts from the OEMs’ price war, but 4Q25 margin will stabilise. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Cut target price for Li Auto to HK$60.0. Raise target price for Weich...
Wealth management fees surged 31% yoy in 3Q25 due to brisk sales for investment products and bancassurance. AUM hit a new high of S$474b. New NPL formation was benign at S$113m. DBS wrote back general provisions of S$45m. Maintain HOLD. Target price: S$55.50.
Top Stories Company Results | DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP/HOLD/S$55.54/Target: S$55.50) Wealth management fees surged 31% yoy in 3Q25 due to brisk sales for investment products and bancassurance. AUM hit a new high of S$474b. New NPL formation was benign at S$113m. DBS wrote back general provisions of S$45m. Maintain HOLD. Target price: S$55.50. Company Results | Genting Singapore (GENS SP/BUY/S$0.73/Target: S$0.89) GENS’ stronger 3Q25 results reflect strengthening RWS footfall, better VIP vo...
Top Stories Sector Update | Banking We expect 3Q25 to be characterised by continued NIM compression, the resurgence of wealth management fees and benign asset quality. We expect net profit of S$2,749m for DBS (-9% yoy, -3% qoq) and S$1,808m for OCBC (-8% yoy, flat qoq). We remain concerned about heightened uncertainties emanating from trade conflicts and a prolonged US government shutdown. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. BUY OCBC (Target: S$20.12), HOLD DBS (Target: S$55.25). Market Spotlight • US st...
Greater China Economics | Economic Activity China’s 3Q25 GDP growth slowed to 4.8% yoy, 9M25 growth to 5.1%. Ytd FAI fell 0.5% yoy, dragged by property FAI (-13.9% ytd yoy). September's industrial production rose 6.5% yoy, but retail sales growth eased to 3.0% yoy. With the stronger-than-expected 9M25 growth, we raise the full-year real GDP growth forecast to 5.0% yoy. That said, further policy support is still needed and we expect proposals for the 15th Five-year Plan to provide further clu...
We expect 3Q25 to be characterised by continued NIM compression, the resurgence of wealth management fees and benign asset quality. We expect net profit of S$2,749m for DBS (-9% yoy, -3% qoq) and S$1,808m for OCBC (-8% yoy, flat qoq). We remain concerned about heightened uncertainties emanating from trade conflicts and a prolonged US government shutdown. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. BUY OCBC (Target: S$20.12), HOLD DBS (Target: S$55.25).
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