Greater China Sector Update | China Property Recent equity placements proposals by Zhuhai Huafa Properties and Seazen signal improving equity financing conditions for mainland developers. Expected losses in 2025 will lower BPS for SOE/quasi-SOE developers, increasing the likelihood of state-owned capital injections amid industry consolidation. Jan 26 property sales data shows improved yoy performances in both the primary and secondary markets, partly due to a low base in Jan 25 which was impacte...
Wealth management and loans-related fees saw a significant sequential pullback of 19% and 25% qoq respectively due to seasonal weakness. Specific provisions for chunky Hong Kong real estate exposure were cushioned by a write-back in general provisions. NIM compression moderated by a smaller 3bp qoq in 4Q25 and exit NIM was stable at 1.92% in Jan 26. Management expects two Fed rate cuts in 2026 but sees firmer SORA at 1.25%. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$66.75.
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom, respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, while adding Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Company Results | Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/B...
Singapore equities delivered a strong January performance, with the STI rising 5.6% to fresh record highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions that drove flight-to-safety flows. Manufacturing activity remained in mild expansion, led by electronics and AI-related demand. Market/corporate catalysts during the month include REIT earnings, IPO interest in Catalist and continued strength in gold-linked counters.
Greater China Economics | PMI January PMI was below Bloomberg’s consensus, as the manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2 (-0.9pt mom). The manufacturing output sub-index stayed marginally expansionary, while the new orders and new export orders sub-indices weakened. The purchase prices sub-index surged, pointing to higher cost pressure for manufacturers. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4 (-0.8pt mom), mainly driven by a sharp contraction in the construction industry index. Large enterpri...
Our Alpha Picks outperformed the STI on a price-weighted and market cap-weighted basis but underperformed on an equalweighted basis. For Feb 26, we add CAO, RGL, HLA, and PROP and remove CLAR, KEP, MPM, and RSTON. The portfolio continues to be well-positioned ahead of expected EQDP-driven flows into small- and mid-cap stocks.
The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair has strengthened the Fed’s credibility in fighting inflation, leading to an abrupt unwind for safe haven assets. Liquidity exiting safe haven assets, such as the Singapore dollar, could lead to firmer domestic interest rates in 2026. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. The Fed regaining its credibility is supportive of our thesis that banks benefit from the Goldilocks economy. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) and OCBC (Target: S$23.65). DBS provides an attractive 20...
Top Stories Strategy | Singapore Outlook The Singapore market outlook webinar for retail clients received over 200 attendees. We outlined our 2026 strategy, highlighting large-cap picks (DBS, GENS, KEP, SE), small-mid-cap selections (FEH, VALUE, RSTON, CAO), and top five S-REITs (CLAR, KREIT, LREIT, CAREIT, NTTDCR). Key questions include potential EQDP beneficiaries, small-mid-cap stocks, property counters, banks and REITS. Market Spotlight • US stocks were higher on Thursday, with the DJI...
The Singapore market outlook webinar for retail clients received over 200 attendees. We outlined our 2026 strategy, highlighting large-cap picks (DBS, GENS, KEP, SE), small-mid-cap selections (FEH, VALUE, RSTON, CAO), and top five S-REITs (CLAR, KREIT, LREIT, CAREIT, NTTDCR). Key questions include potential EQDP beneficiaries, small-mid-cap stocks, property counters, banks and REITS.
We expect 4Q25 to be characterised by moderation in NIM compression, sustainable growth in wealth management fees and benign asset quality. We project net profit of S$2,523m for DBS (flat yoy, -15% qoq) and S$1,747m for OCBC (+4% yoy, -12% qoq). Maintain OVERWEIGHT. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) and OCBC (Target: S$23.65). DBS provides an attractive 2026 dividend yield of 5.6%. We are excited to hear the new CEO’s strategy, priorities and vision for OCBC.
Top Stories Sector Update | Banking We expect 4Q25 to be characterised by moderation in NIM compression, sustainable growth in wealth management fees and benign asset quality. We project net profit of S$2,523m for DBS (flat yoy, -15% qoq) and S$1,747m for OCBC (+4% yoy, -12% qoq). Maintain OVERWEIGHT. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) and OCBC (Target: S$23.65). DBS provides an attractive 2026 dividend yield of 5.6%. We are excited to hear the new CEO’s strategy, priorities and vision for O...
Top Stories Sector Update | Banks We envisage a Goldilocks economy with steady growth accompanied by low inflation, the ideal balance for sustainable and lengthy economic expansion, supported by the Trump Administration’s new focus on affordability. We anticipate two rate cuts in 1H26 but none in 2H26. Banks provide resilient earnings with growth in non-interest income, including wealth management, offsetting negative impact from NIM compression. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) ...
Greater China Company Update | Baidu (9888 HK/BUY/HK$146.60/Target: HK$166.00) We are optimistic on Baidu as the Kunlunxin spin-off could help unlock financial value for Baidu and strengthen its AI ecosystem. Baidu announced that on 1 Jan 26, Kunlunxin applied for a listing on the HK Stock Exchange. Following the spin-off, Kunlunxin will remain a consolidated subsidiary, with Baidu retaining a controlling 59% stake. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$166.00 (US$185.00). Company ...
We envisage a Goldilocks economy with steady growth accompanied by low inflation, the ideal balance for sustainable and lengthy economic expansion, supported by the Trump Administration’s new focus on affordability. We anticipate two rate cuts in 1H26 but none in 2H26. Banks provide resilient earnings with growth in non-interest income, including wealth management, offsetting negative impact from NIM compression. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) and OCBC (Target: S$23.65) for att...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December pic...
Greater China Sector Update | IT Hardware We see an acceleration in China’s AI development progress in 2026, with NVIDIA successfully obtaining the US government’s approval on H200 sales to China, which will provide a major boost to the Chinese the AI application users. We also believe that the shipment volume of domestic AI chips will receive minimal impact, with foreign chips acting as a “demand gap filler” while the establishment of a capable local supply chain remains the highest priorit...
We remain bullish on the Singapore market in 2026 given positive earnings growth prospects as well as funds flow momentum. We forecast a 2026 year-end target of 5,000 for the STI, implying an 8% upside from current levels. Key stock picks are CLAR, CLI, CIT, DFI, FR, GENS, KEP, OCBC, SE, ASL, CAREIT, CSE, FEH and VALUE.
Highlights • We remain bullish on the Singapore market in 2026 given positive earnings growth prospects as well as funds flow momentum. • We forecast a 2026 year-end target of 5,000 for the STI, implying an 8% upside from current levels. • Key stock picks are CLAR, CLI, CIT, DFI, FR, GENS, KEP, OCBC, SE, ASL, CAREIT, CSE, FEH and VALUE.
Greater China Economics | PMI December Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, back in the expansionary zone for the first time since March. Non-manufacturing PMI also improved at 50.2 (+0.7pt mom), driven by a rebound in construction activity, while services PMI remained slightly contractionary pointing to weak domestic demand. Enterprise PMI showed divergent trends, with large firms leading the improvement. Overall, the December data points to uneven recovery despite the positive headline numbers....
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