In May 25, new home and second-hand transactions in Tier 1 cities remain relatively resilient. We visited four residential projects in Shanghai and observed: a) better sales of upgrading units, b) price stabilisation, and c) a challenging margin outlook. In Hong Kong, with the sharp decline of 1M HIBOR being a major positive development, RVD’s latest rental yields data points to improved return of smaller units. We expect higher yields into the school admission season. Maintain sector ratings an...
In Apr 25, the 28 mainland cities we monitored saw yoy decreases in new home sales, and total sales for Top 100 developers fell 16.9% yoy, worsening from a 10.6% yoy drop in Mar 25. As holiday delays data registration, we think the sales data for next two weeks will show the strength of sales in May 25. For the Hong Kong market, declining inventory and rising rental yields are positive signs. But consumption leakage remains a key concern. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Market watch around May holiday: New-home sales recovery weakens in Apr 25; the trend of Hong Kong resident travelling north remains strong. Sector Consumer Strong Macau visitations and robust home appliance sales during Labour Day Holiday. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp2,540/Target:...
In Apr 25, major mainland cities saw mom/yoy decreases in new home sales, while second-hand transactions in Tier 1 cities continued to see positive yoy growth. The supportive remarks by Premier Li Qiang on 15 April point to further upside on property policies. The upcoming Politburo meeting will be an important window for clues of new policies. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. CR Land remains our top pick.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Supportive policy remarks by Premier Li Qiang point to further upside; upcoming Politburo meeting to be an important policy window. Results Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK/BUY/HK$49.15/Target: HK$68.00) 1Q25: Earnings up 46% yoy, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$68.00. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/BUY/Rmb24.27/Target: Rmb32.20) 1Q25: Net pro...
In Apr 25: a) major mainland cities saw mom decreases in new home sales and secondhand transactions; b) the CVI index in Hong Kong is hovering around 40, pointing to weakened sentiment; and c) mainland tourists to Hong Kong/Hong Kong residents to China grew 15.7%/25.2% yoy respectively. Amid rising trade risks, stabilising domestic demand has become more important for China. Besides, Hong Kong’s free port status needs to be monitored. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
The tariffs announced by Trump increased uncertainties over the Fed’s rate cuts, weighing on the recovery of the Hong Kong residential market and tourism. The mainland property market will be less affected, backed by China’s relatively independent monetary policy. For 2025, leading SOE developers’ earnings stabilisation will be a key highlight. Maintain sector weights with this pecking order: China property>Hong Kong developers>Hong Kong landlords. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Tariffs curtail US rate cuts, thereby hindering the recovery of Hong Kong property and tourism; Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China property. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25 Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Update Pekat Group (PEKAT MK/BUY/RM1.08/Target: RM1.45) Good earnings visibility over 2025...
The HSI and MSCI China index rose 0.8% mom and 2.0% mom respectively in March, after the DeepSeek fervour passed and investors locked in profits ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement in early-April. In the face of geopolitical uncertainties and potential trade war escalations, we will keep our exposure to companies reliant on domestic demand and beneficiaries of policy support. New additions to our BUY list are CR Beer, Desay SV, JBM Healthcare, JD Logistics, Minth, WuXi App Tech and Xiaomi Corp.
CR Land’s 2024 results are in line with our and consensus estimates. Its resilient mall portfolio is a highlight. Factoring in lower booked margins for property sales, we trim our 2025/26 earnings forecasts by 4.6%/4.0% respectively. Nevertheless, for 2025, a positive outlook for property sales and higher earnings from recurring income are expected to positively drive the company’s valuation. Maintain BUY and target price of HK$32.40. CR Land remains our top pick in China’s property sector.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$25.85/Target: HK$32.40) CR Land’s 2024 results are in line with our and consensus estimates. Its resilient mall portfolio is a highlight. Factoring in lower booked margins for property sales, we trim our 2025/26 earnings forecasts by 4.6%/4.0% respectively. Nevertheless, for 2025, a positive outlook for property sales and higher earnings from recurring income are expected to positively drive the company’s valuation. Maintain BUY and target price o...
GREATER CHINA Results CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$25.85/Target: HK$32.40) 2024: Results in line; positive outlook for property sales in 2025. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$34.50/Target: HK$38.70) 2024: Results beat with 100% payout ratio; pursuing high-quality growth. Giordano International (709 HK/BUY/HK$1.52/Target: HK$2.14) 2024: 2H24 revenue rebound; 3-5% revenue growth and improving net margin in 2025. Haidilao Internatio...
According to the latest NBS data, national sales were stronger than expected but new starts remained sluggish in 2M25, leading to a faster destocking pace. Due to improved supply-demand dynamics and enhanced destocking policies, we raise our forecast for national residential GFA sold growth in 2025 to -2.5% yoy under a neutral scenario. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. CR Land and Longfor remain our top picks.
We noticed an improvement in demand-supply dynamics in Tier 1 cities, especially in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, where inventory months have decreased by 3.4 and 13.4 months yoy to 15/15 months respectively. 2025 NPC and CPPCC meetings have set a positive policy tone, with the greater autonomy of destocking being a key highlight. We expect the market to further stabilise in March. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. CR Land remains our top pick. Add Longfor to our POE top picks for improved sentiment.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Shenzhen and Guangzhou seeing notable improvement in demand-supply dynamics. Results ECARX Holdings Inc (ECX US/BUY/US$2.67/Target: US$3.40) 4Q24: Net loss narrows due to revenue growth. Maintain BUY. Target price: US$3.40. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,260/Target: Rp3,300) XLSmart estimates potential cost synergies of US$300-...
The HSI and MSCI China index rose 13.4% mom and 11.5% mom respectively in February, riding the wave of optimism on China’s tech sector. Sino-US tensions look set to rise in March, as higher tariffs take effect and should lead to greater market volatility. Hence, we will be quick to take profit and will only add names with less demanding valuations. New additions to our BUY list are Geely, JD, SHKP and Zijin Mining.
Property sales in mainland China saw yoy growth in Feb 25. Multiple real estate indicators showed signs of market stabilisation. In Mar 25, the performance of real estate stocks may be volatile. We continue to keep an eye on policy catalysts. In Hong Kong, both the CCL index and CVI index weakened in early-Feb 25, but recent primary sales achieved high sell-through rates. We expect an improvement in Hong Kong’s primary market after the budget speech. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land a...
After the Chinese New Year period, we visited eight projects in Shenzhen and Shanghai in mid-Feb 24 to check the market performance. We saw a gradual recovery in Shenzhen and Shanghai property transactions in Feb 25, and observed the stabilisation of sentiment among homebuyers and developers. If stronger fiscal policies are introduced during the Two Sessions in Mar 25, we expect to see further recovery and decent yoy growth in property sales. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Channel checks and observations of Shenzhen and Shanghai primary markets. INDONESIA Strategy Danantara – Who Could Benefit Beneficiaries: PGEO, ANTM, TINS, BMRI, BBNI, BBRI and TLKM. We have an end-25 target of 7,500 for the JCI. MALAYSIA Results 99 Speed Mart Retail (99SMART MK/BUY/RM2.14/Target: RM2.60) 4Q24: Delivers on earnings...
Property sales in both mainland China and Hong Kong recovered wow in the third week of Feb 25. With a continued decline in transition volume and improvement of sentiment in a few cities, we expect the land market to continue its structural divergence in 2025. In Hong Kong, the CCL index remained stable, but we expect high inventory to continue weighing on property prices. We stay cautious on NWD with a HOLD rating despite the
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