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Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China & Hong Kong Property Strategy: Channel check of Shanghai’s prima...

In May 25, new home and second-hand transactions in Tier 1 cities remain relatively resilient. We visited four residential projects in Shanghai and observed: a) better sales of upgrading units, b) price stabilisation, and c) a challenging margin outlook. In Hong Kong, with the sharp decline of 1M HIBOR being a major positive development, RVD’s latest rental yields data points to improved return of smaller units. We expect higher yields into the school admission season. Maintain sector ratings an...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China And Hong Kong Property Strategy: Market watch around May holiday...

In Apr 25, the 28 mainland cities we monitored saw yoy decreases in new home sales, and total sales for Top 100 developers fell 16.9% yoy, worsening from a 10.6% yoy drop in Mar 25. As holiday delays data registration, we think the sales data for next two weeks will show the strength of sales in May 25. For the Hong Kong market, declining inventory and rising rental yields are positive signs. But consumption leakage remains a key concern. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+15)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Benyamin Mikael
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jack Lai Yuan Khai
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, May 07, 2025

GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Market watch around May holiday: New-home sales recovery weakens in Apr 25; the trend of Hong Kong resident travelling north remains strong. Sector Consumer Strong Macau visitations and robust home appliance sales during Labour Day Holiday. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp2,540/Target:...

02313 SHENZHOU INTERNATIONAL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
00683 KERRY PROPERTIES LIMITED
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
5168 HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD.
PTT PTT PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
ANTM PT ANEKA TAMBANG TBK
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
02331 LI NING COMPANY LIMITED
B8O YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD.
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
0168 TSINGTAO BREWERY CO. LTD. CLASS H
06862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.
GAM GAMUDA BHD
KPJ KPJ HEALTHCARE BERHAD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
HEIM HEINEKEN MALAYSIA BHD
BANPU TB BANPU
ECW ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP
HLBANK HONG LEONG BANK BHD
1368 XTEP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
TDC TIME DOTCOM BHD
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
MNSO MINISO GROUP HOLDING ADS (N SHARES)
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
09922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD.
STM SEATRIUM LTD
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: Supportive policy remarks by Premier Li Qiang point to...

In Apr 25, major mainland cities saw mom/yoy decreases in new home sales, while second-hand transactions in Tier 1 cities continued to see positive yoy growth. The supportive remarks by Premier Li Qiang on 15 April point to further upside on property policies. The upcoming Politburo meeting will be an important window for clues of new policies. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. CR Land remains our top pick.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+12)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Colin Lee
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ken Lee
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Ming San Soong
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, April 22, 2025

GREATER CHINA Sector Property Supportive policy remarks by Premier Li Qiang point to further upside; upcoming Politburo meeting to be an important policy window. Results Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK/BUY/HK$49.15/Target: HK$68.00) 1Q25: Earnings up 46% yoy, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$68.00. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/BUY/Rmb24.27/Target: Rmb32.20) 1Q25: Net pro...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China And Hong Kong Property Strategy: Sales recovery weakened in Apr ...

In Apr 25: a) major mainland cities saw mom decreases in new home sales and secondhand transactions; b) the CVI index in Hong Kong is hovering around 40, pointing to weakened sentiment; and c) mainland tourists to Hong Kong/Hong Kong residents to China grew 15.7%/25.2% yoy respectively. Amid rising trade risks, stabilising domestic demand has become more important for China. Besides, Hong Kong’s free port status needs to be monitored. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China And Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlords Strategy: Tariffs c...

The tariffs announced by Trump increased uncertainties over the Fed’s rate cuts, weighing on the recovery of the Hong Kong residential market and tourism. The mainland property market will be less affected, backed by China’s relatively independent monetary policy. For 2025, leading SOE developers’ earnings stabilisation will be a key highlight. Maintain sector weights with this pecking order: China property>Hong Kong developers>Hong Kong landlords. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+11)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Johnny Yum
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Singapore Research Team
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Wei Xiang Ku

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, April 08, 2025

GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Tariffs curtail US rate cuts, thereby hindering the recovery of Hong Kong property and tourism; Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China property. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25 Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Update Pekat Group (PEKAT MK/BUY/RM1.08/Target: RM1.45) Good earnings visibility over 2025...

TFG THAIFOODS GROUP
FR FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST INC.
AES AES CORPORATION
OU8 CENTURION
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
00683 KERRY PROPERTIES LIMITED
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
CC3 STARHUB LTD
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
S63 SINGAPORE TECHNOLOGIES ENGINEERING LTD
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
D05 DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
C09 CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED
S68 SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LTD.
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
F34 WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
BN2 VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS
B8O YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD.
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
N2IU MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
BUOU FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
GFPT GFPT
00014 HYSAN DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
C6L SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD.
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
Z74 SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
PTTEP PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PLC
Y92 THAI BEVERAGE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
AP4 RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS
BN4 KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
ICBP PT INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR TBK
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
MIKA MITRA KELUARGA KARYASEHAT
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
SE SEA ADS
SATS SP SATS LTD.
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
NETLINK NETLINK NBN TRUST
SIE SIA ENGINEERING CO LTD
BAL BUMITAMA AGRI LTD
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
SPOST SINGAPORE POST LTD
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
FHT FRASERS HOSPITALITY TRUST
PMAH PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDIN
SSG SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD
RFMD RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
RSTON RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS LTD
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
HMN ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
SE US SEA LIMITED
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
CVL CIVMEC
9CI CAPITALAND INVESTMENT LTD
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
ITC I-TAIL CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
DCRU DIGITAL CORE REIT MANAGEMENT PTE. LTD.
STM SEATRIUM LTD
EPIC 1CM INC
Z29 029 GROUP SE
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
PAN SP PAN-UNITED CORPORATION (PAN SP)
Greater China Research Team
  • Greater China Research Team

Greater China Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls

The HSI and MSCI China index rose 0.8% mom and 2.0% mom respectively in March, after the DeepSeek fervour passed and investors locked in profits ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement in early-April. In the face of geopolitical uncertainties and potential trade war escalations, we will keep our exposure to companies reliant on domestic demand and beneficiaries of policy support. New additions to our BUY list are CR Beer, Desay SV, JBM Healthcare, JD Logistics, Minth, WuXi App Tech and Xiaomi Corp.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

CR Land (1109 HK): 2024: Results in line; positive outlook for propert...

CR Land’s 2024 results are in line with our and consensus estimates. Its resilient mall portfolio is a highlight. Factoring in lower booked margins for property sales, we trim our 2025/26 earnings forecasts by 4.6%/4.0% respectively. Nevertheless, for 2025, a positive outlook for property sales and higher earnings from recurring income are expected to positively drive the company’s valuation. Maintain BUY and target price of HK$32.40. CR Land remains our top pick in China’s property sector.

Carol Dou Xiao Qin ... (+10)
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Damon Shen
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Kate Luang
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen

Greater China Daily: Thursday, March 27, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$25.85/Target: HK$32.40) CR Land’s 2024 results are in line with our and consensus estimates. Its resilient mall portfolio is a highlight. Factoring in lower booked margins for property sales, we trim our 2025/26 earnings forecasts by 4.6%/4.0% respectively. Nevertheless, for 2025, a positive outlook for property sales and higher earnings from recurring income are expected to positively drive the company’s valuation. Maintain BUY and target price o...

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+18)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jack Lai Yuan Khai
  • Jieqi Liu
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Kate Luang
  • Philip Wong
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, March 27, 2025

GREATER CHINA Results CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$25.85/Target: HK$32.40) 2024: Results in line; positive outlook for property sales in 2025. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$34.50/Target: HK$38.70) 2024: Results beat with 100% payout ratio; pursuing high-quality growth. Giordano International (709 HK/BUY/HK$1.52/Target: HK$2.14) 2024: 2H24 revenue rebound; 3-5% revenue growth and improving net margin in 2025. Haidilao Internatio...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: Faster-than-expected destocking progress; higher 2025 ...

According to the latest NBS data, national sales were stronger than expected but new starts remained sluggish in 2M25, leading to a faster destocking pace. Due to improved supply-demand dynamics and enhanced destocking policies, we raise our forecast for national residential GFA sold growth in 2025 to -2.5% yoy under a neutral scenario. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. CR Land and Longfor remain our top picks.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: Shenzhen and Guangzhou seeing notable improvement in d...

We noticed an improvement in demand-supply dynamics in Tier 1 cities, especially in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, where inventory months have decreased by 3.4 and 13.4 months yoy to 15/15 months respectively. 2025 NPC and CPPCC meetings have set a positive policy tone, with the greater autonomy of destocking being a key highlight. We expect the market to further stabilise in March. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. CR Land remains our top pick. Add Longfor to our POE top picks for improved sentiment.

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+8)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Damon Shen
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Ken Lee
  • Paula Ruth

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, March 12, 2025

GREATER CHINA Sector Property Shenzhen and Guangzhou seeing notable improvement in demand-supply dynamics. Results ECARX Holdings Inc (ECX US/BUY/US$2.67/Target: US$3.40) 4Q24: Net loss narrows due to revenue growth. Maintain BUY. Target price: US$3.40. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,260/Target: Rp3,300) XLSmart estimates potential cost synergies of US$300-...

Greater China Research Team
  • Greater China Research Team

Greater China Strategy: Alpha Picks -- March Conviction Calls

The HSI and MSCI China index rose 13.4% mom and 11.5% mom respectively in February, riding the wave of optimism on China’s tech sector. Sino-US tensions look set to rise in March, as higher tariffs take effect and should lead to greater market volatility. Hence, we will be quick to take profit and will only add names with less demanding valuations. New additions to our BUY list are Geely, JD, SHKP and Zijin Mining.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China And Hong Kong Property: Preview of property policies from two se...

Property sales in mainland China saw yoy growth in Feb 25. Multiple real estate indicators showed signs of market stabilisation. In Mar 25, the performance of real estate stocks may be volatile. We continue to keep an eye on policy catalysts. In Hong Kong, both the CCL index and CVI index weakened in early-Feb 25, but recent primary sales achieved high sell-through rates. We expect an improvement in Hong Kong’s primary market after the budget speech. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land a...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: Channel checks and observations of Shenzhen and Shangh...

After the Chinese New Year period, we visited eight projects in Shenzhen and Shanghai in mid-Feb 24 to check the market performance. We saw a gradual recovery in Shenzhen and Shanghai property transactions in Feb 25, and observed the stabilisation of sentiment among homebuyers and developers. If stronger fiscal policies are introduced during the Two Sessions in Mar 25, we expect to see further recovery and decent yoy growth in property sales. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad ... (+15)
  • Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Damon Shen
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jieqi Liu
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Johnny Yum
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Philip Wong
  • Stevanus Juanda
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Wei Xiang Ku

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, February 25, 2025

GREATER CHINA Sector Property Channel checks and observations of Shenzhen and Shanghai primary markets. INDONESIA Strategy Danantara – Who Could Benefit Beneficiaries: PGEO, ANTM, TINS, BMRI, BBNI, BBRI and TLKM. We have an end-25 target of 7,500 for the JCI. MALAYSIA Results 99 Speed Mart Retail (99SMART MK/BUY/RM2.14/Target: RM2.60) 4Q24: Delivers on earnings...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China and Hong Kong Property Strategy: Recent data of home sales and l...

Property sales in both mainland China and Hong Kong recovered wow in the third week of Feb 25. With a continued decline in transition volume and improvement of sentiment in a few cities, we expect the land market to continue its structural divergence in 2025. In Hong Kong, the CCL index remained stable, but we expect high inventory to continue weighing on property prices. We stay cautious on NWD with a HOLD rating despite the

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