reports
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Stevanus Juanda
- Sunny Chen
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, September 30, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Healthcare: Improving funding environment and potential fiscal easing may support a robust industry recovery. IT Hardware: Smartphone supply chain recovery on track; China stimulus may bring potential upsides. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Results Huize Holding (HUIZ US/BUY/US$0.71/Target: US$1.50): 2Q24: Earnings dragged by depressed FYP growth and uptick in G&A expenses. INDONESIA Update United Tractors (UNTR IJ/SELL/Rp27,700/Target: Rp20,000): Lingering risk of lower coal prices....
- Stevanus Juanda
United Tractors (UNTR IJ) - Lingering Risk Of Lower Coal Prices; Maint...
From our recent conversation with UNTR, we see a lingering risk of lower coal prices. UNTR expects coal prices to further decline to US$115/tonne in 2025. Komatsu sales volume target was guided to increase from 4,250 units to 4,500 in 2024. Gold sales volume is expected to rise by 10,000 t.oz per year after the completion of the tailing in 4Q24. We expect 2024 NPAT to decline by 17.7% and a further 1.6% in 2025. Maintain SELL with a target price of Rp20,000.
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
- Stevanus Juanda
Automobile – BYD Unit Sales Now Ranked Sixth In Indonesia
In Aug 24, car sales recorded a 14th consecutive monthly decline. The weak performance is likely to continue until Dec 24. In Aug 24, BYD recorded sales of 2,940 units and was ranked sixth. Consumer acceptance of BEVs continues to rise and BEVs accounted for sales of 4,725 units in Aug 24 (6.2% of market). The best-selling brand is still Toyota with Toyota Kijang in the top spot. We have a SELL rating on ASII and UNTR. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on the sector.
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jieqi Liu
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Ming San Soong
- Stevanus Juanda
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, August 07, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: Strategic revamp to revitalise e-commerce GMV growth. Results Wharf Real Estate Investment Co (1997 HK/BUY/HK$20.10/Target: HK$28.30): 1H24: Underlying net profit up 2% on positive retail rental growth and lower funding cost; awaiting cyclical factors to improve. INDONESIA Results United Tractors (UNTR IJ/SELL/Rp24,150/Target: Rp20,000): 2Q24: Continued weakness; in line with consensus estimates. MALAYSIA Sector Utilities: Government likely to award short-term PP...
5168 HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD.
UNTR PT UNITED TRACTORS TBK
IRPC IRPC PUBLIC CO. LTD.
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
QH QUALITY HOUSES
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
MTC MUANGTHAI CAPITAL PCL
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
- Stevanus Juanda
United Tractors (UNTR IJ) - 2Q24: Continued Weakness; In Line With Con...
UNTR’s 2Q24 NPAT fell 15.4% yoy and rose 9.6% qoq to Rp4,985b. 1H24 NPAT came in at Rp9,532b, down 15% yoy. It is slightly ahead of our forecast but in line with that of consensus. Coal price weakness impacted the performance of heavy machinery in terms of Komatsu sales and the coal mining division. The impact was dampened by the mining contracting and gold divisions. Maintain SELL with a target price of Rp20,000.
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
- Stevanus Juanda
Automobile – Jun 24 Sees Monthly Car Sales Declining For 13th Consecut...
4W sales experienced the 13th consecutive months of yoy declines with 72,936 sales units. Volume decline was seen across the board with Daihatsu, Isuzu, Mitsubishi and Wuling outperforming. By model, Daihatsu Sigra and Toyota Kijang bulked the falling trend and delivered a positive yoy sales volume growth. Chery came in at the 11th spot in 1H24, thanks to Omoda launch. We have a SELL rating on ASII and UNTR and downgrade the sector to UNDERWEIGHT.
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Jonathan Koh
- Jun Sian Tan
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, May 21, 2024
GREATER CHINA Initiate Coverage Joyson Electronics Corp (600699 CH/BUY/Rmb16.71/Target: Rmb26.00) Riding on the vehicle electrification and intelligentisation trends. Initiate coverage with BUY. Target price: Rmb26.00. Results Li Auto (2015 HK/SELL/HK$99.90/Target: HK$70.00) 1Q24: Results miss estimates with unexpected operating loss. Cut target price from HK$85.00 to HK$70.00. Maintain SELL. INDONESIA Update United Tractors (UNTR IJ/SELL/Rp22,850/Target: Rp20,...
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
UNTR PT UNITED TRACTORS TBK
CENT CENTRATAMA TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA
1295 PUBLIC BANK BHD
TS0U OUE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
AW9U FIRST REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
HANA HANA MICROELECTRONICS PCL
O5RU AIMS APAC REIT
SK6U SPH REIT
SAWAD SRISAWAD CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
SGREIT STARHILL GLOBAL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
FEHT FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
MTC MUANGTHAI CAPITAL PCL
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
SCGB SUNWAY CONSTRUCTION GROUP BH
FHT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
KLK FRASERS HOSPITALITY TRUST
SASSR KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
CNNU SASSEUR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
TXG CROMWELL EUROPEAN REIT
CICT 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
LREIT SP CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
TIDLOR LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
CLCT NGERN TID LOR PCL
FLT CAPITALAND CHINA TRUST
ME FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
DCREIT 23ANDME HLDG CO
MPACT DIGITAL CORE REIT
CLAS MAPLETREE PAN ASIA COMMERCIAL TRUST
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCOTT TRUST
EREIT CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
Z29 ESR-LOGOS REIT
02015 029 GROUP SE
600699 LI AUTO INC
JOYSON ELECTRONICS CORP
- Stevanus Juanda
United Tractors (UNTR IJ) - A 17.7% yoy Decline In 2024 NPAT
UNTR expects to sell 3,800-4,000 units of heavy equipment in 2024 with UD Truck and Scania sales declining by 30%. Pama’s overburden removal volume and coal delivery volume is expected to rise by 5% while fees are expected to be flat. Coking coal sales volume is expected to jump by 16% and thermal coal volume by 6.5%. Gold sales volume is expected at 235,000 t.oz with selling price of over US$2,000/t.oz. We expect a 17.7% yoy drop in 2024 NPAT. Maintain SELL with a target price of Rp20,000.
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Jun Sian Tan
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, March 01, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PEV market share rebounds; price war heats up. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: XPeng. Top BUY: CATL, Tuopu and Desay SV. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$12.68/Target: HK$19.50): 2023: Results miss; mixed signals from the results. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/HOLD/HK$242.80/Target: HK$262.00): 4Q23: Passable results. Maintain HOLD. NetEase (9999 HK/BUY/HK$176.20/Target: HK$202.00): 4Q23: Earnings miss; upcoming blockbusters in 2024. New...
S63 SINGAPORE TECHNOLOGIES ENGINEERING LTD
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
UNTR PT UNITED TRACTORS TBK
00388 HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING LTD.
STEC SINO-THAI ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION PCL
AMATA AMATA CORP
B8O YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD.
AP4 RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS
CPN-R CENTRAL PATTANA PCL NVDR
GENM GENTING MALAYSIA BHD
MAHB MALAYSIA AIRPORTS HLDGS BHD
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
TDC TIME DOTCOM BHD
09999 NETEASE INC
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
CK CH. KARNCHANG PUBLIC CO LTD
- Stevanus Juanda
United Tractors (UNTR IJ) - 4Q23: Weakness Observed In Many Divisions
UNTR’s 4Q23 NPAT rose 2.4% yoy and 27.4% qoq. 4Q23’s strong performance was mainly due to coal shipment from its coal mine due to the rainy season that added Rp3t PBT. The other non-mining divisions recorded a mediocre performance in 4Q23. We think coal prices could continue to fall in 2024-25 and have forecasted 26.2%/6.2% declines in 2024/25 NPAT respectively. Maintain SELL with a target price of Rp20,000.
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
- Stevanus Juanda
United Tractors (UNTR IJ) - Small Downward Adjustment To Pama’s Fees C...
UNTR guides for a 25-30% decline in Komatsu unit sales with a 30% fall in unit sales of UD Truck and Scania. The rate adjustment at Pama should be insignificant but sensitivity analysis shows that small adjustments to Pama’s rate could have a sizeable impact to UNTR’s bottom line. Gold volume should rise to 235,000 t.oz as tailing expansion is completed. We expect 2024 NPAT to drop 30.2% yoy. Maintain SELL with a target price of Rp20,000.
- Damon Shen
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, February 07, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Hong Kong Property: CCL Index stabilises in Jan 24; channel checks on implementation of easing measures on non-PR buyers. INDONESIA Update Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ/BUY/Rp1,035/Target: Rp1,420): Growing elegantly with solid marketing sales. United Tractors (UNTR IJ/SELL/Rp22,800/Target: Rp20,000): Small downward adjustment to Pama’s fees could impact 2024 NPAT. MALAYSIA Results British American Tobacco (ROTH MK/BUY/RM9.08/Target: RM10.40): 4Q23: Results met expectation...
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ/BUY/Rp1,035/Target: Rp1,420): Growing elegantly with solid marketing sales. United Tractors (UNTR IJ/SELL/Rp22,800/Target: Rp20,000): Small downward adjustment to Pama’s fees could impact 2024 NPAT. TRADERS’ CORNER Bank Neo Commerce (BBYB IJ): Technical BUY HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ): Technical BUY
- Stevanus Juanda
Automobile – Nov 23 Car Unit Sales Decline For Fifth Consecutive Month
4W sales units saw its fifth consecutive month of yoy decline, coming in at 84,930 units (-7% yoy). The yoy fall was due to high interest rates. We expect the softness to continue into 1H24 as the high interest rates will persist into 1H24. New models are gaining traction in Indonesia at the expense of older models. 2023 marked a big win for Toyota Kijang Innova, while Honda and Hyundai gained market share. We have a HOLD rating on ASII and a SELL rating on UNTR.
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