reports
- Benyamin Mikael
Mining – The Gold Game: Key Beneficiaries Of The Bull Run
Gold surged past US$3,200/oz in 1Q25 on rising global uncertainties, driving US$21b in ETF inflows. Despite a higher 16% progressive royalty, upstream players (MDKA, BRMS, PSAB, UNTR) should benefit from strong ASPs and long-term production growth, while trading-focused players (HRTA, ANTM) gain from robust domestic demand and the establishment of the bullion bank. Top picks: MDKA, UNTR. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Benyamin Mikael
- Maskun Ramli
- Willinoy Sitorus
United Tractors (UNTR IJ) - Gold And Strong Balance Sheet With Which T...
We estimate 2025-26 core profit declining by 9%/3% respectively before rebounding to 9% in 2027. The upcoming two-year earnings shortfall is partially supported by a strong contribution from its gold segment thanks to a rise in gold prices, offsetting a decline in coal prices. UNTR is trading at an undemanding 4.5x 2025F PE. We estimate a lucrative 8% dividend yield. Upgrade to BUY. Target price: Rp26,000.
- Maskun Ramli
- Willinoy Sitorus
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Guan An Tan
- Jonathan Koh
- Kong Ho Meng
- Malaysia Research Team
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, April 14, 2025
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply: New credit picks up in March. Sector Healthcare: Prefer leading drug innovators and internet healthcare companies amid escalating US-China trade tensions. Transportation & Logistics: Tariff war posing significant uncertainties to global trade. Prefer domestic consumption-oriented logistics names. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: JD Logistics (2618 HK). INDONESIA Update United Tractors (UNTR IJ/BUY/Rp21,850/Target: Rp26,000): Gold to cushion earnings from d...
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tham Mun Hon
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, February 27, 2025
GREATER CHINA Economics Hong Kong Budget 2025-26 The budget balances fiscal discipline with strategic growth initiatives. Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$64.05/Target: HK$80.00) 4Q24: Earnings disappoint; mainstream tools recovering in 2025 but visibility remains low. Maintain BUY. Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.66/Target: HK$13.30) 4Q24: Results miss slightly; CEO change and increased shareho...
ASM PACIFIC TECHNOLOGY LIMITED
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
C09 CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED
UNTR PT UNITED TRACTORS TBK
1155 MALAYAN BANKING BHD.
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
CENTEL CENTRAL PLAZA HOTEL
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SAWAD SRISAWAD CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
AXIATA AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
HLBK HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD
SWB SUNWAY BHD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
FEH FOOD EMPIRE HOLDINGS LTD
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
- Stevanus Juanda
Automobile – Nineteenth Consecutive Monthly Volume Decline; BYD Breaks...
Indonesia’s domestic car sales came in at 61,849 units in Jan 25, down 11.3% yoy. This marked 19 consecutive months of volume decline. Weakness could persist until 1H25, and things should improve in 2H25. Toyota is still the number one brand in 2024 and Jan 25. Toyota Kijang is the number one brand. BYD has broken into the top 10 thanks to sales of BYD M6. In 2024, total unit sales of BEVs made up 4.98% of total national sales. We have a BUY rating on ASII and a HOLD rating on UNTR. Maintain OVE...
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chong Lee Len
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Ming San Soong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Sunny Chen
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, January 17, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales down 10% yoy but up 8.5% wow; EVs gain on subsidy rollout. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Healthcare The challenging but rewarding journey of globalisation amid rising geopolitical risks. Internet ...
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
ASM PACIFIC TECHNOLOGY LIMITED
D05 DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
01093 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LIMITED
UNTR PT UNITED TRACTORS TBK
U11 UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD. (SINGAPORE)
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
01177 SINO BIOPHARMACEUTICAL LIMITED
EGH EUREKA GROUP HOLDINGS
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
02669 CHINA OVERSEAS PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
AXIATA AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
3933 THE UNITED LABORATORIES INTE
WPRTS WESTPORTS HOLDINGS BHD
HCM HUTCHISON CHINA MEDITECH LIMITED
06098 COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
601138 FOXCONN INDUSTRIAL INTERNET CO. LTD. CLASS A
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
6049 POLY PROPERTY SERVICES CO LTD
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
09999 NETEASE INC
01209 CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE SERVICES (RED CHIP)
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
06160 BEIGENE LTD.
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
300765 CSPC INNOVATION PHARMACEUTICAL CO L
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
600699 JOYSON ELECTRONICS CORP
- Stevanus Juanda
United Tractors (UNTR IJ) - 2025F NPAT Expected To Be Flat yoy
UNTR guided for 4,600 units in Komatsu sales, with UD Truck and Scania volume to rise by 10-20% in 2025. Overburden removal is expected to rise by 2-3% with coal delivery of 150m tonnes. Gold volume is expected to rise from 235,000 t.oz to 240,000 t.oz. UNTR’s RKEF facility is expected to commence operations in 2H25 with selling price at 75% of LME and cash cost of US$11,000/tonne. We expect 2025 NPAT to be flat yoy (-0.7% yoy). Maintain HOLD with a target price of Rp30,000.
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Ming San Soong
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, November 20, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK/BUY/HK$29.20/Target: HK$40.00) 3Q24: Revenue and earnings beat; positive outlook for online games growth. Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK/BUY/HK$17.70/Target: HK$20.00) 3Q24: Earnings beat; poised for better margin outlook in 2025. Upgrade to BUY. Trip.com (9961 HK/BUY/HK$505.00/Target: HK$640.00) 3Q24: Solid earnings beat; stepped up investment for interntational market share expansion. XPeng Inc...
UNTR PT UNITED TRACTORS TBK
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BN4 KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
BTS BTS GROUP HOLDINGS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
DLG DIALOG GROUP BHD
03319 A-LIVING SMART CITY SERVICES CO. LTD. CLASS H
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
Z29 029 GROUP SE
09868 XPENG INC
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Stevanus Juanda
Automobile – BEVs Comprise 5.1% Of Total Domestic Car Sales
In Oct 24, car sales came in at 77,705 units, recording the 16h consecutive monthly decline. However, the rate of decline narrowed due to last year’s low base. For 10M24, car unit sales declined 14.3% yoy. Toyota is still the market leader with five products in the top 10. BYD retook the no. 6 position thanks to its 7-seater BYD M6. BEVs comprise 5.1% of total car sales in Indonesia and this could surpass 10% by 2025. We have a BUY rating on ASII and a HOLD on UNTR. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT.
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Krit Tanarattananon
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Ming San Soong
- Philip Wong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, November 07, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet - China Revitalising momentum evident in initial phase of 11.11 campaign. Results LINK REIT (823 HK/BUY/HK$38.05/Target: HK$45.08) 1HFY25: DPU rises 3.7% yoy, meeting expectations; enhancing resilience amid macro headwinds. Update Prudential (2378 HK/BUY/HK$65.50/Target: HK$126.00) Solid NBP growth on improved sales and margins across few mar...
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
PRU PRUDENTIAL PLC
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
UNTR PT UNITED TRACTORS TBK
AMATA AMATA CORP
BUOU FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
SIE SIA ENGINEERING CO LTD
SPOST SINGAPORE POST LTD
FNH FRASER & NEAVE HOLDINGS BHD
BANPU TB BANPU
WHA TB WHA CORP PCL
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
9CI CAPITALAND INVESTMENT LTD
DELTA DELTA ELECTRONICS
Z29 029 GROUP SE
- Stevanus Juanda
United Tractors (UNTR IJ) - 3Q24: Gold Prices Drive Strong Performance
UNTR reported a 3Q24 NPAT of Rp6,059b, rising 46.6% yoy and 21.6% qoq. The strong performance was due to the gold division’s EBIT rising 276.1% yoy. Gold prices averaged US$2,475/t.oz in 3Q24 vs US$1,929/t.oz in 3Q23. 3Q24 results were also helped by the Komatsu division that recorded an EBIT of 83.2% yoy, thanks to large equipment sales despite a 3.8% decline in unit sales. 9M24 NPAT came in at Rp15,592b, growing 1.6% yoy – above expectations. Upgrade to HOLD with a target price of Rp30,000.
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Stevanus Juanda
- Sunny Chen
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, September 30, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Healthcare: Improving funding environment and potential fiscal easing may support a robust industry recovery. IT Hardware: Smartphone supply chain recovery on track; China stimulus may bring potential upsides. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Results Huize Holding (HUIZ US/BUY/US$0.71/Target: US$1.50): 2Q24: Earnings dragged by depressed FYP growth and uptick in G&A expenses. INDONESIA Update United Tractors (UNTR IJ/SELL/Rp27,700/Target: Rp20,000): Lingering risk of lower coal prices....
- Stevanus Juanda
United Tractors (UNTR IJ) - Lingering Risk Of Lower Coal Prices; Maint...
From our recent conversation with UNTR, we see a lingering risk of lower coal prices. UNTR expects coal prices to further decline to US$115/tonne in 2025. Komatsu sales volume target was guided to increase from 4,250 units to 4,500 in 2024. Gold sales volume is expected to rise by 10,000 t.oz per year after the completion of the tailing in 4Q24. We expect 2024 NPAT to decline by 17.7% and a further 1.6% in 2025. Maintain SELL with a target price of Rp20,000.
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
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