China auto sales rebounded in the seventh week of 2025, but remained low compared with the previous month due to consumers’ wait-and-see sentiment amid a price war and the transitional period of product upgrade. Zeekr’s acquisition of Lynk & Co strengthens Geely’s premium EV strategy. GWM has unveiled a strategy for affordable smart driving solutions. DeepSeek is gaining traction among automakers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, CATL and Desay SV.
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade: Slowing global manufacturing dampens export growth. Results Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK/BUY/HK$42.15/Target: HK$61.00): 2Q24: Core earnings up 66% yoy, beating estimates. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$61.00. INDONESIA Results Astra International (ASII IJ/SELL/Rp4,630/Target: Rp3,900): 2Q24: Soft performance in most major divisions; in line with expectations. Bank Neo Commerce (BBYB IJ/BUY/Rp234/Target: Rp375): 2Q24: Net loss of Rp20b; expec...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Crystal International. Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales pick up; take...
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply: Weaker appetite for credit could limit impact of policy easing. Sector Aviation: Airlines’ Feb 24 operating data beat our expectations on stronger-than-expected holiday effect. Near-term risk-reward appears more balanced. Upgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Results Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH/BUY/Rmb180.85 /Target: Rmb250.00): 4Q23: Earnings beat on margins. Maintain BUY. Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK/BUY/HK$41.40/Target: HK$50.00): 4Q23: Net prof...
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation: Airlines Sep 23 operating data: pax load performance below expectations; overcapacity issue remains. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Gaming: Marketing feedback: Be selective; eyes on cost management amid intensified competition. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Initiate Coverage Ningbo Tuopu Group Co (601689 CH/BUY/Rmb66.49/Target: Rmb105.00): Leading intelligent lightweight chassis solution provider in China. Initiate coverage with BUY. Target price: Rmb105.00. Results Fuyao Glass I...
China’s PEV retail sales growth accelerated to 40% yoy in the third week of September, driven by seasonality and stimulus measures. CPCA estimates Sep 23 PEV sales at 750,000 units (+22.7% yoy/+7.4% mom), in line with expectations. The top EV companies in China jointly saw 7% mom and 17% wow growth in insurance registrations. BYD’s insurance registrations grew 19.8% mom/20.7% wow to 64,700 units during 18-24 Sep 23, hitting a record high. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL and Li Auto.
CPCA estimates China’s July passenger EV sales at 647,000 units (+33% yoy/-3% mom). We estimate China’s 2023 passenger EV sales at 8.5m units (+30% yoy) on stimuli, rising market share and strong exports. As expected, XPeng’s stock price fell by 19% from its recent peak with the resignation of its autonomous driving head. Li Auto’s stock price spiked 14% on expected strong 2Q23 results. Lithium carbonate prices fell 6% this week, easing cost pressure. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL a...
Daily average passenger EV retail sales spiked by 59% yoy and 21% wow and remained flat mom in the third week of Jul 23, implying a market share of 40.1%, and in line with expectations. However CPCA expects passenger EV retail sales to grow 27.5% yoy but fall 6.8% mom in Jul 23, implying a 35.8% market share. We keep our estimates on China’s EV sales growth at 30%, based on stimuli, increasing market share and strong exports. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL and Li Auto.
The second week of July saw a 53% wow spike in daily average passenger EV sales, but weekly sales still turned out to be 5% below those in the same period last month. Given the disappointing EV sales during 1-16 Jul 23, the state is reportedly mulling new stimuli to spur EV sales. We keep our estimate on 2023 China EV sales growth at 30%. Lithium carbonate prices fell to below Rmb300,000/tonne again, easing EV cost pressure. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s auto sector. Top BUYs: BYD, CATL and Li...
FYG’s businesses are growing on all fronts. CRU of its auto glass plant recovered from 75% in 1Q23 to 80% in 2Q23, with inventory drawn down. For 2023, FYG guides for mid single-digit growth in auto glass sales volume. For its aluminium trim business, FYG targets to quintuple revenue from Rmb1.18b in 2022 to Rmb6.00b in the next few years. Based on that, we raise 2023-25 EPS by 6%/9%/11% to Rmb1.92/Rmb2.28/Rmb2.80 respectively. Maintain BUY. Raise target price to HK$42.00.
GREATER CHINA Update Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK/BUY/HK$31.05/Target: HK$42.00): Aluminium trim business adds to earnings momentum. Maintain BUY. Raise target price to HK$42.00. INDONESIA Sector Cement: Cement ASP to remain stable with potentially stronger demand in 2H23. MALAYSIA Update Eco World Development (ECW MK/BUY/RM0.85/Target:RM1.02): Looking to expand landbank. My EG Services (MYEG MK/BUY/RM0.715/Target: RM1.18): Immigration concession is extended by government with terms to ...
CPCA estimates China’s June retail sales of PVs and passenger EVs at 1.83m units (- 5.9% yoy/+5.2% mom) and 670,000 units (+26% yoy/+15.5% mom) respectively, beating estimates, with the 618 promotions and local stimulus boosting sales in the second half of June. We keep our growth estimates for China’s PV sales and EV sales at 1%/30% respectively, based on the new round of stimuli. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s auto sector, with a preference for the EV segment. Top BUYs: BYD, CATL and Li Auto.
China’s PV retail sales dropped 10% yoy and 25% mom to 425,000 units during 1-11 Jun 23, missing estimates, due to high-base effect and wage cuts. Passenger EV retail sales grew 18% yoy and dipped 4% mom to 160,000 units, below estimates but still better than the overall PV market. Nio cut product prices by Rmb30,000 or c. 10% across the board for cancelling its free battery swap services. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s auto sector, with preference for the EV segment. Top BUYs: BYD, CATL and Li...
China’s May PV retail sales grew 30% yoy and 8% mom to 1.759m units, above estimates, driven by price cuts. China’s May passenger EV retail sales grew 54% yoy and 6% mom to 557,000 units, below estimates. Wholesale shipment of passenger EVs outstripped retail sales, driven by exports. We raise our forecast on China’s 2023 auto sales growth from -3% to +3%. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s auto sector, with a preference for the EV segment. Top BUYs: BYD, CATL and Li Auto.
China took over Japan’s position as the world’s largest car exporter in 1Q23 with vehicle export volume spiking 75% yoy to 1.49m units in 4M23, driven by EVs. Exports are emerging as the new growth driver of China’s EV industry. As for the China market, passenger EV retail sales in the first two weeks of May doubled yoy and grew 17% mom, in line with expectations. China is mulling stimulus for promoting EV sales in rural areas. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT with preference for the EV segment. Top BUYs: B...
CPCA expects China’s retail sales of PV and passenger EV to drop 1.3%/8.4% mom in Apr 23, given the sharp mom drop in the last week of Apr 23. China’s auto sales were still curbed by the wait-and-see attitude amid a price war, but this is abating with car prices stabilising and more new models being launched. During the Golden Week of the Labour Day holiday, auto retail sales value grew 25.1% yoy, beating expectations. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD and CATL. Top SELL: Ganfeng Lithium.
FYG’s 1Q23 net profit came in as expected at Rmb915m (+5% yoy/+7% qoq), with margin recovery offsetting qoq sales decline. Looking ahead, we maintain 2023-25 net profit forecasts at Rmb4,733m/Rmb5,434m/Rmb6,571m, based on 4% sales volume CAGR, over 10% p.a. in ASP hike and steady gross margin. The decline in aluminium prices and stabilisation of natural gas prices will bolster FYG’s margins. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$40.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Points to weak employment outlook. Sector Aviation Airlines: 1Q23 narrowing losses broadly in line with expectations. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Results Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019 CH/BUY/Rmb6.44/Target: Rmb7.10) 2022/1Q23: In line; speeding up M&A. China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.25/Target: HK$6.06) 1Q23: Results in line; NIM to stabilise in next few quarters. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$37.65/Target: HK$58.00) 1Q23: Results in line; cautiously op...
The 2023 Shanghai Auto Show seems to be a prelude to the endgame of fossil fuel cars, as the spotlight shifts to EVs with two-thirds of the 150 newly-unveiled models being EVs, and ICE cars being sidelined. Many of the advanced features of the new EV models are enabled by key parts and components from tier-1 suppliers like CATL, Desay SV and FYG. BYD offers the most proprietary technologies with its new products. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD and CATL. Top SELL: Ganfeng Lithium.
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