KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy The Impact Of Escalating Middle East Tensions A fluid situation with oil prices the key worry. Small/Mid Cap Highlights BRC Asia (BRC SP/BUY/S$1.94/Target: S$2.42) 1QFY24: Strong results as construction demand recovers. TRADERS’ CORNER Aztech Global (AZTECH SP): Trading BUY Isdn Holdings (ISDN SP): Trading BUY
GREATER CHINA Update Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/HOLD/HK$243.60/Target: HK$260.00): Risk-off mode continues. INDONESIA Results Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ/BUY/Rp1,345/Target: Rp1,700): 4Q23: Net profit up 41% qoq on strong non-interest income and lower CoC. MALAYSIA Results Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings (MMHE MK/BUY/RM0.48/Target: RM0.60): 2023: Performance missed expectations on absence of cost provision/tax recoveries. We still see value in MMHE, as market c...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Civmec (CVL SP/BUY/S$0.795/Target:S$1.23): 1HFY24: Results in line; positive dividend surprise and robust net cash position. Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT SP/BUY/S$0.635/Target: S$0.82): 2H23: Fastest growth with lowest risk. Thai Beverage (THBEV SP/BUY/S$0.495/Target:S$0.70): 1QFY24: In line as margins improve. MONTHLY TECHNICAL - INDICES OUTLOOK FTSE Straits Times Index (STI IND): Consolidation continues but more on bearish bias
THBEV released its 1QFY24 business update whereby overall revenue fell 5.9% yoy, dragged by the beer segment. However, 1QFY24 EBITDA increased 1.9% yoy on more efficient A&P spending along with lower raw material costs. The spirits segment continues to benefit from a better product mix while the beer segment faces a weak macroeconomic outlook. In our view, THVBEV is trading at an attractive -2SD to its mean PE. Maintain BUY with the same SOTP-based target price of S$0.70.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls: We add the potential beneficiaries of the upcoming CNY festival − Galaxy Entertainment and Trip.com − to our BUY list, but include SELL calls on BYD and Geely due to the subsidy reduction. Sector Automobile: Weekly: EV sales spiked in the last week of 2023 on year-end promotions, which dampens margins. Top SELLs: BYD and Ganfeng Lithium. Baijiu: Dealers’ confidence remains lacklustre. INDONESIA Sector Banking: Loan growth accelerated...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Lendlease Global Commercial REIT (LREIT SP/BUY/S$0.635/Target: S$0.87): Addressing risk of pre-termination by Sky Italia. Thai Beverage (THBEV SP/BUY/S$0.54/Target: S$0.70): No direct impact from announced tax changes, but awaiting further clarity. TRADERS’ CORNER Propnex (PROP SP): Trading BUY Singapore Airlines (SIA SP): Trading SELL
Thailand has announced a dual visa waiver programme with China that will start in Mar 24, which is set to boost incoming tourist arrivals for 2024. Thailand’s government has also announced tax changes for several liquor products and entertainment venues to help boost tourism spending. Backed by favourable tailwinds, THBEV is trading at attractive levels at -2SD to its long-term average PE. Maintain BUY with an unchanged SOTP-based target price of S$0.70.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: China’s PEV retail sales up 37% yoy/2% mom during 1-19 Nov 23, in line. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Remove BYD from top pick list. Top picks: CATL and Li Auto. INDONESIA Results XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,090/Target: Rp2,400): 3Q23: Fixed broadband subscribers surge 84% yoy. Upgrade to BUY. MALAYSIA Results Genting Malaysia (GENM MK/BUY/RM2.58/Target: RM3.50): 3Q23: Historical high quarterly earnings within expectations, mainly fuelled by RWG’s stronger opera...
THBEV reported lower FY23 PATMI of Bt27.4b (-8.9% yoy), lower than our expectations, dragged by the beer segment. The spirits segment benefitted from a better product sales mix while the beer segment underperformed as sales volume in Vietnam fell. Both the NAB and food segments posted record-high revenue as economic activity continues to recover. In our view, THVBEV is trading at an attractive -2SD to its mean PE. Maintain BUY with a lower SOTP-based target price of S$0.70 (S$0.75 previously).
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls: We add a mix of defensives and turnaround stocks − COSCO Shipping, CR Mixc, Great Wall Motor, Innovent, Link REIT and NetEase − to our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance Despite Negative Returns: Our picks: TLKM, BBNI, SMGR, NCKL, CTRA, MYOR, AKRA and CMRY. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Focusing On Domestic Winners: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the FBMKLCI in Oct 23. Nov 23 picks: BUY BURSA, EKOVEST, GENM, ...
Poor investor sentiment in Oct 23 drove our Alpha Picks portfolio into negative territory; however, it nevertheless beat the STI by 0.1ppt on a market cap-weighted basis. As a result, our portfolio has outperformed the STI 18 out of past 20 months. For Nov 23, we add SIE, ST, FEH, FEHT AND FRKN, while removing SEA, KEP and CLAS.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: Property sales during National Day holiday weaker than expected; awaiting more stimuli in 4Q23 to restore confidence. Update Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$82.10/Target: HK$120.00): 2QFY24 preview: Eyes on Taobao-Tmall’s focus strategy; near-term growth to be spurred by Double 11. Asian Gems Corporate Highlights CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/BUY/HK$5.52/Target: HK$8.00): Innovative product launches to support double-digit revenue growth from 2024. INDONESIA As...
Thailand’s tourist arrivals continue to improve yoy despite lower-than-expected Chinese tourist arrivals. In a bid to revive tourism, Thailand has simplified visa requirements for Chinese tourists, its largest feeder market. However, the recent shooting in Bangkok is poised to partially offset any improvement in the near term. With the recent share price weakness, we reckon that THBEV is trading at attractive valuations, supported by favourable tailwinds. Maintain BUY but with a lower SOTP-based...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls: We expect further downside pressure, so we add SELLs on Henlius and Xpeng to the list, on top of BUYs on Anta, Lenovo, PICC P&C and SHKP. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Potential Bull Market in 4Q23: Our picks: BBNI, SMGR, NCKL, MAPI, CTRA, MYOR, AKRA and CMRY. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: A Handful Of Events To Capitalise On: Our Alpha Picks modestly outperformed the FBMKLCI in Sep 23. Oct 23 picks: BUY BURSA, HAPL, HUME, MAHB a...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: Adding MPM And RHP, Removing DELFI, LHN and YZJ: Our Alpha Picks portfolio outperformed for Sep 23, beating the STI by 4.7ppt. SEA Ltd, Bumitama and ComfortDelgro were the key outperformers. TRADERS’ CORNER Singapore Telecommunications (ST SP): Trading BUY Frencken Group (FRKN SP): Trading BUY
Our Alpha Picks portfolio overcame weak investor sentiment in Sep 23, beating the STI by 4.7ppt on a market cap-weighted basis and 0.4ppt on an equal-weighted basis, outperforming the STI in 17 out of the past 19 months. For Oct 23, we add MPM as we forecast higher utilisation rates, and RHP for near-term drilling upside potential. We remove DELFI and LHN due to a lack of near-term catalysts, and YZJ as we expect a quiet period for new orders.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We focus on stocks with pricing power or sustainable margins against a weakening macro backdrop. Add Giordano, KE Holdings and Trip.com. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Aug 23: Our picks: MYOR, BSDE, CTRA, HMSP, BBNI, SMGR and MAPI. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Warming Up For Better Months Ahead: Our Alpha Picks outperformed the FBMKLCI in Aug 23. Sep 23 picks: BUY BURSA, HAPL, HUME, MAHB, Mr DIY, My EG Servi...
On a market cap-weighted basis, the STI outperformed our Alpha Picks by 0.3ppt, which was helped by our industrial stock picks. On a price-weighted and market-cap weighted basis, however, our portfolio significantly underperformed due to Sea Ltd. We note that our Alpha Picks portfolio has nevertheless beaten the STI in 16 out of the past 18 months. For Sep 23, due to favourable tailwinds for its data centre segment, we add MINT while removing RFMD from our Alpha Picks portfolio.
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