reports
- Kong Ho Meng
Oil & Gas - Industry Consolidation Continues In 2025: The Age Of Elect...
Industry Consolidation Continues In 2025: The Age Of Electricity As the International Energy Agency (IEA) terms 2025 as the “Age Of Electricity” where investments focusing on AI, data centers and grid/storage/battery upgrades take centerstage, we see continued consolidation in the local O&G industry, driven by Petronas’ right-sizing exercise, recalibration following the Petros issue, and the shift towards new industries such as CCS, despite near-term upside risk to oil prices from geopolitical e...
- Kong Ho Meng
Petronas Dagangan (PETD MK) - 1Q25: Profits Boosted By Jet Fuel; Upgra...
1Q25: Profits Boosted By Jet Fuel; Upgrade to BUY on Favourable ESG Metrics PETD’s 1Q25 core profit beat expectations, due to a) above-industry growth, b) superior and more enhanced distribution for jet fuel, c) favourable jet fuel price trend, and d) lower opex. We now see that these effects are more sustainable, and upgrade earnings forecasts by 3.0-12%. In addition, we saw a more positive ESG angle as being responsible for helping its supply chain (dealers) to cope with the upcoming RON95 ret...
- Kong Ho Meng
Oil & Gas - Geopolitical Risk May Extend to CCS, Allowing Sector Conso...
Geopolitical Risk May Extend to CCS, Allowing Sector Consolidation Regardless the details to be announced in PM Anwar and Sarawak Premier Jo’s new agreement later this week, we take a view that the Petronas-Petros geopolitical risk may prolong, extending to carbon storage (the next business frontier for the sector), until the shift of monetary flows are more balanced between the regions. If this happens, the sector will have breathing space to consolidate; hence, we continue to advise focusing o...
- Kong Ho Meng
Oil & Gas - Clear Water Muddled By “Grey Areas” — Simply Theatrics Or ...
Clear Water Muddled By “Grey Areas” — Simply Theatrics Or Chess Game? Petronas reported lower profit yoy amid a weakened LNG position and higher costs in 2024, due to various events including the Petronas-Petros development. Lately, some “misunderstandings” on the scope (i. LNG) and the correct DGO date are potentially precarious. If they are proven to be mere theatrics, then these matters should be resolved quickly. However, if the chess game prolongs, it will contribute towards sector risks. W...
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Benyamin Mikael
- Chong Lee Len
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Kong Ho Meng
- Lester Siew
- Ming San Soong
- Philip Wong
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, February 26, 2025
REGIONAL Sector Plantation Guest speakers at our Palm Oil Seminar 2025 flag diverging palm production prospects between Malaysia and Indonesia, alongside downside risks to CPO prices. GREATER CHINA Results Trip.com (9961 HK/BUY/HK$462.00/Target: HK$630.00) 4Q24: Earnings beat; continuous efforts in international expansion. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ...
AALI ASTRA AGRO LESTARI
5681 PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD.
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
F34 WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
5218 SAPURA ENERGY BHD
SPALI SUPALAI PCL
3816 MISC BHD
5243 VELESTO ENERGY
UZMA UZMA BHD
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
SOP SARAWAK OIL PALMS BERHAD
T TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
BAB BUMI ARMADA BERHAD
LSIP PP LONDON SUMATRA INDONES PT
BAL BUMITAMA AGRI LTD
KIML KIM LOONG RESOURCES BHD
DLG DIALOG GROUP BHD
KLK KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
CPALL TB CP ALL
DLUM DELEUM BERHAD
GENP GENTING PLANTATIONS BHD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
NESZ NESTLE (MALAYSIA) BERHAD
PROP PROPNEX LTD
HAPL HAP SENG PLANTATIONS HOLDINGS BHD
WHA TB WHA CORP PCL
TAPG TRIPUTRA AGRO PERSADA PT
8AZ AZTECH GLOBAL LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
ITMAX ITMAX SYSTEMS BHD
SDG SD GUTHRIE BHD
BRMS IJ BUMI RESOURCES MINERALS
IOICORP Â IOI CORP BHD
- Kong Ho Meng
Petronas Dagangan (PETD MK) - 2024: Profits In Line; Bonanza Dividend ...
2024: Profits In Line; Bonanza Dividend May Be One-off PETD ended 2024 with stability; however it surprised the market positively with bonanza DPS (that implies a rare 5-6% dividend yield for this stock). It may be reflective of management’s confidence in its strategic portfolio optimisation, however we are cautious on the future landscape amid the retargeting of RON95 fuel and potential competition. Retain HOLD, and target price of RM19.50.
- Kong Ho Meng
Oil & Gas - O&G Landscape Entering “Right-Sizing” Mode
O&G Landscape Entering “Right-Sizing” Mode Petronas has confirmed a downsizing exercise, involving a review of 30% of its staff force, as it aims to be nimble for its survival. While this exercise is not driven by the Petros saga, we are concerned about the potential impact on the sector’s earnings, given its timing will coincide with heavy plant turnarounds. The Shell MDS injunction against Petronas/Petros implies more uncertainties. Should near-term earnings risk materialise, we advise accumul...
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Jonathan Koh
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Kong Ho Meng
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Sunny Chen
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, February 10
GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation Seasonal demand lifted downstream inflation. Update Innovent Biologics (1801 HK/BUY/HK$36.25/Target: HK$52.00) Expects significant expansion in 2025; targeting revenue of Rmb20b in 2027. INDONESIA Results Bank Syariah Indonesia (BRIS IJ/BUY/Rp3,020/Target: Rp3,450) 2024: Net profit up 22%, above expectations; upgrade earnings forecasts. MALAYSIA...
5681 PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD.
5218 SAPURA ENERGY BHD
BUOU FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
3816 MISC BHD
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
5243 VELESTO ENERGY
UZMA UZMA BHD
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
BAB BUMI ARMADA BERHAD
DLG DIALOG GROUP BHD
DLUM DELEUM BERHAD
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
- Kong Ho Meng
Oil & Gas - PAO 2025-27: Rationalisation Across Three Regions
PAO 2025-27: Rationalisation Across Three Regions Despite being published remarkably later than usual, the PAO offers new insights, in particular activity outlook across three regions and clearer plant turnaround distinction between Upstream/Downstream/Gas segments. Aligning with our view, there are cuts in exploration-stage and JU rig outlook, but maintenance demand is largely intact. Plant turnaround is the biggest winner in our opinion, but we identified 2Q25, 2Q26 and 1Q27 as critical period...
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Jonathan Koh
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kong Ho Meng
- Stevanus Juanda
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, January 31, 2025
INDONESIA Update Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ/HOLD/Rp2,500/Target: Rp2,300) Margins will still be negatively affected in 4Q24 and 1H25. MALAYSIA Sector Oil & Gas PAO aligns with our view on cuts in exploration/JU rig demand, but maintenance demand remains intact. Plant turnaround may be the biggest winner, but with high execution risks in 2Q25, 2Q26 and 1Q27. SINGAPORE Sector REITs ...
BJC BERLI JUCKER PUBLIC CO. LTD.
5681 PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD.
5218 SAPURA ENERGY BHD
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
3816 MISC BHD
5243 VELESTO ENERGY
UZMA UZMA BHD
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
BAB BUMI ARMADA BERHAD
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
DLG DIALOG GROUP BHD
MMHE MALAYSIA MARINE AND HEAVY EN
DLUM DELEUM BERHAD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
DCRU DIGITAL CORE REIT MANAGEMENT PTE. LTD.
Z29 029 GROUP SE
- Kong Ho Meng
Petronas Dagangan (PETD MK) - 3Q24: Profits Helped By Favourable Price...
3Q24: Profits Helped By Favourable Price Trends And Market Share PETD’s 3Q24 core profit delivered an upside surprise, attributable to the jet fuel segment further benefitting from favourable price trends, with PETD’s sales volume possibly outperforming industry growth despite the diesel retargeting implementation in Jun 24. We raise our forecasts by up to 14% although we still retain a 30% discount on DCF. Maintain HOLD. Target price: RM19.50.
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jieqi Liu
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Kong Ho Meng
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, November 26, 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property: Property sales in major mainland cities increased mom in Nov 24; more macro support needed amid rising geopolitical risks. INDONESIA Update Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/BUY/Rp4,470/Target: Rp5,600): Trading at -1SD, an attractive valuation. MALAYSIA Results Gas Malaysia (GMB MK/BUY/RM3.82/Target: RM4.40): 9M24: Above expectations; stronger-than-expected NG volume growth of 9%. ITMAX System (ITMAX MK/BUY/RM3.55/Target: RM4.10): 3Q24: Within...
- Kong Ho Meng
Oil & Gas - IWCS Launched As Petronas’ Third Edition Of A True Industr...
IWCS Launched As Petronas’ Third Edition Of A True Industry Collaboration Petronas last week launched the IWCS contracts based on enhanced terms from the previous IWS model, and the four packages were awarded to 34 panel contractors. Expectedly so, the IWCS beneficiaries in our coverage are chosen, including Deleum, Uzma, Velesto Energy and SAPE. Other non-rated stocks like Reservoir Link and T7 Global (NR) also gained. Although the contract values were not revealed, the contract winners are exp...
- Kong Ho Meng
Oil & Gas - FPSO Outlook Weighed Against Energy Transition
FPSO Outlook Weighed Against Energy Transition While the FPSO industry benefits from an all-time high backlog, we think players should sharpen their focus on decarbonisation/clean energy pathways, as we foresee diverging patterns in this “new field growth” depending on various factors. For example, it seems solar and wind will not be part of Bumi Armada and Yinson Production (the FPSO arm), even though wind is officially under SBM Offshore. MISC remains as a green transportation arm though it ma...
- Kong Ho Meng
Petronas Dagangan (PETD MK) - 2Q24: Results In Line Despite SKDS2.0 Im...
2Q24: Results In Line Despite SKDS2.0 Impact, But Clear Growth Plans Required PETD’s 2Q24 core profit improved qoq, suggesting that the costs and volume impact from diesel retargeting (effective Jun 24) might have been mild. Management guidance may help to allay the 30% discount we had applied on valuations for this risk. Having said that, we think securing its local earnings base is no longer sufficient, and a better long-term re-rating may emerge, should PETD begin to align itself with Petrona...
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Damon Shen
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Kong Ho Meng
- Ming San Soong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, August 21, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK/BUY/HK$44.40/Target: HK$70.00): 2Q24: Solid earnings beat; strategic focus on AIGC monetisation. Poly Property Services (6049 HK/BUY/HK$25.25 /Target: HK$37.30): 1H24: Earnings in line on improved operational efficiency; expansion and cash generation capabilities weakened. Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK/HOLD/HK$13.12/Target: HK$14.00): 2Q24: Results in line; shifting focus to margin improvement amid soft macro environment. Downgrade to HOLD. ...
- Kong Ho Meng
Oil & Gas - Cautiousness in Business Enquiries: Signs Of Local O&G Cap...
Cautiousness in Business Enquiries: Signs Of Local O&G Capex Slowdown? Geopolitical risk may be the norm in the new world order, but we think this has been happening in Malaysia for the past six years. The highlight of this saga is when Petros took over the role of sole gas aggregator of Sarawak’s gas business, followed by major changes in Petronas’ top leadership roles. Although nothing is confirmed, channel checks suggest activities are slowing down. We advocate defensive stocks that are diver...
- Kong Ho Meng
Oil & Gas - Malaysia’s Positioning As Regional CCS Storage Hub
Malaysia’s Positioning As Regional CCS Storage Hub As we predicted, 2024 may be the year to evaluate Malaysia/Petronas’ CCS milestone. This is because Asia’s CCS projects are maturing, as major industries (ie emitters) take concrete action on emission targets. Malaysia is a clear beneficiary as a CCS storage hub, not only due to its local O&G fields and industries, but also strategically overseas emitters especially Japan and Korea. MISC, our sector top pick, is also a clear CCS beneficiary (LCO...
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kong Ho Meng
- Ming San Soong
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, July 15, 2024
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply Money supply growth slows further. Trade Wider trade surplus in June on robust exports growth. Sector Banking Implications of PBOC’s bond sales for China banks. Update JD.com (9618 HK/BUY/HK$112.00/Target: HK$150.00) 2Q24 results ...
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
5218 SAPURA ENERGY BHD
EA ENERGY ABSOLUTE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
SCC SIAM CEMENT PUBLIC CO. LTD.
5243 VELESTO ENERGY
UZMA UZMA BHD
MISC MISC BHD
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
MMHE MALAYSIA MARINE AND HEAVY EN
PRIME PRIME ROAD POWER PUBLIC CO LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
HUME HUME CEMENT INDUSTRIES BHD
- Kong Ho Meng
Oil & Gas - MISC-Bumi Armada Is Better Off Collaborating In Certain Pr...
MISC-Bumi Armada Is Better Off Collaborating In Certain Projects Speculations of a merger might have lifted Bumi Armada’s (BAB) share price in the past month. While combining both FPSO fleets may propel the merged entity to Modec’s fleet size, alongside complementary geographical FPSO market presence, the stumbling blocks are too great in our opinion. There is a lack of financial synergies from the non-FPSO segments. If any, we think a collaboration in certain projects may generate more positive...
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