GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation Deflationary pressures remain. Sector Automobile Weekly: Direct impacts from US tariffs contained; indirect spillovers uncertain. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV. Update Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$81.55/Target: HK$108.80) 1Q25 sales me...
Indonesian banks face risks from global trade tensions through corporate borrowers, exporters and forex exposure. Historical data for 2012–24 shows banks' resilience during major shocks like COVID-19, the taper tantrum and the US-China trade war. Stress tests show that CAR remains above regulatory minimums even in severe scenarios, supported by strong capitalisation. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. BBCA is our top pick due to its robust CAR and ample liquidity. Tactical trades can be deployed around volati...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Add CR Beer, Desay, JBM Healthcare, JD Logistics, Minth, WuXi App Tech and Xiaomi Corp to our BUY list. Take profit on AIA, Hansoh Pharma, JD and Zijin Mining. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25: Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Pockets of Opportunities: Our Mar 25 Alpha Picks outperform. Apr 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Duopharma, IJM, IOI Properties, TIME...
BBRI, BMRI and BBNI raised their 2024 DPRs, with share buybacks planned while maintaining their high-teens capital buffer. SOE banks saw major leadership changes. Overall, PPOP was flat with mixed profit trends, and loan growth was strong at 10.3% yoy in Feb 25. Danantara’s new leadership, comprising experienced professionals, may boost investor confidence. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Our top picks are: BBCA>BMRI>BBNI> BRIS>BBRI.
GREATER CHINA Results CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$25.85/Target: HK$32.40) 2024: Results in line; positive outlook for property sales in 2025. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$34.50/Target: HK$38.70) 2024: Results beat with 100% payout ratio; pursuing high-quality growth. Giordano International (709 HK/BUY/HK$1.52/Target: HK$2.14) 2024: 2H24 revenue rebound; 3-5% revenue growth and improving net margin in 2025. Haidilao Internatio...
GREATER CHINA Results BYD Company (1211 HK/BUY/HK$389.20/Target: HK$510.00) 4Q24: Earnings up 73% yoy, beating our estimates on margins. Maintain BUY. Raise target price from HK$410.00 to HK$510.00. BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$42.45/Target: HK$47.70) 2H24: Earnings miss on margins; future growth will be driven by automotive and AI. Maintain BUY. Kuaishou (1024 HK/BUY/HK$56.80/Target: HK$75.00) 4Q24: Results in line with...
After the significant management restructuring, investors are awaiting the strategies and initiatives of the newly-appointed directors. Given his vast experience, Mr. Hery is expected to bring valuable insights and strategies to BBRI. The AGM approved: a) an 85% DPR (up from 80% in 2023); and b) a share buyback of Rp3t. Although CoC is above guidance, it significantly declined in Feb 25, decelerating the drop in net profit growth to 18% yoy in 2M25 (1M25: -58%yoy). Maintain BUY. Target price: Rp...
We mainly discussed macroeconomics, politics and Danantara with Taiwan investors. With government spending and the current political dynamics, we expect maturing SRBI to lift liquidity as its outstanding SRBI size accounts for about 10% of the industry’s deposits. The JCI’s PE valuation seems undemanding, at a 30% discount to its five-year historical average, but a sustained re-rating would require greater clarity on government policy execution and a clearer pro-mass market growth shift in econo...
The CoC spike in 1M25 is part of BBRI’s commitment to resolving the bad loans in 2025. The 3.0-3.2% CoC guidance is on assumptions of: a) loan growth of 7-9%, b) Rp3.0-3.5t net NPL formation/month, c) write-off of Rp40t, and d) successful KUPEDES loan restructuring. In our model, a 10% increase in the loan restructuring failure rate will increase CoC by 10-20bp. In a worse-than-expected scenario, BBRI could use reserve coverage which would lower CoC. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rp4,500.
GREATER CHINA Economics Highlights From The NPC: A comprehensive response to economic challenges. Update Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK/HOLD/HK$10.76/Target: HK$11.30): Cathay’s stellar 2024 earnings performance is unlikely to be sustainable in the long run, but a potential beat of street estimates may still provide a near-term trading opportunity. INDONESIA Update Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/BUY/Rp3,840/Target: Rp4,500): Spike in CoC in 1Q25; focus on cleaning up loans. MALAYSIA Sector Tec...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Calls: Add Geely, JD, SHKP and Zijin Mining to our BUY list. Take profit on CATL, Desay, JD Logistics, Mengniu, Plover Bay and Tencent. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Feb 25: Our picks are BBNI, BBRI, MIKA, EXCL, KLBF, JSMR and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Unprecedented Combo Of Disappointments: Our Feb 25 Alpha Picks sorely underperformed. Mar 25 picks: 99SpeedMart, Alpha IVF, KPJ Healthcare, MrDIY, MYEG, RHB Ba...
Our portfolio underperformed in Feb 25, declining 17.1% as JCI dropped 11.8% to a three-year low. There was a sell-off on banking stocks as investors were concerned that being included in Danantara could result in a similar fate to state-owned construction companies. Due to a sharp rise in DCII, IDXTECH outperformed in Feb 25. We remove BMRI, ISAT and CTRA from our portfolio and add MIKA. Our picks are BBNI, BBRI, MIKA, EXCL, KLBF, JSMR and ASII.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales picked up wow while the wait-and-see sentiment continues. Upgrade Li Auto and XPeng from HOLD to BUY and raise target price to HK$156.00 and HK$110.00 respectively. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Results BeiGene (6160 HK/BUY/HK$161.60/Target: HK$220.00) 2024: Results beat; targets operating profit...
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