We expect the banking sector’s 1H25 results to be broadly in line with expectations, despite a possible underperformance from BBRI and BRIS. BBCA remains strong while BBNI and BMRI should post muted earnings growth. NIM pressure is likely to persist due to tight liquidity. Loan growth decelerated but is expected to recover in 2H25. NPLs for auto and mortgage are inching up, but overall asset quality remains sound. We maintain OVERWEIGHT, supported by a dovish BI policy, easing SRBI yields and ex...
Loan growth slowed to 8.1% yoy in May 25 due to tight liquidity and weak credit appetite. Deposit growth remained soft at 3.9% yoy, weighed down by front-loaded government bond issuance, diverting liquidity. We expect BI to continue unwinding SRBI and deliver further rate cuts in 2H25. Fiscal spending showed early signs of acceleration to Rp1,406t in 6M25 (5M25: Rp1,016t). With the deficit revised to 2.78% of GDP, further fiscal spending is anticipated. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls: Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June: Our new Alpha Picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA, AMRT and TLKM. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Positioning For Positive US Trade Deals: Our Jun 25 Alpha Picks outperform. Jul 25 picks: Coraza, Duopharma, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, Inari and MYEG. SINGAP...
GREATER CHINA Sector Insurance Weighing the risks and returns. Update Sunny Optical (2382 HK/BUY/HK$65.15/Target: HK$100.00) Takeaways from 2025 Investor Day. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Strategy Challenging Macro Environment Adds To Case For Rate Cut Our top picks are BBCA, BBRI, ANTM, AMRT, ICBP, CMRY and ERAA. MALAYSIA Sector Automobile ...
The JCI rebounded to about 7,000 after bottoming out at 5,968 on 9 April, following a series of developments including corporate buyback announcements, the creation of Danantara, and market anticipation of a BI rate cut which materialised on 21 May (25bp cut). Catalysts to monitor in 2H25 include: a) further BI rate cut(s), b) a slowdown in SRBI reissuance which would free up banking liquidity, c) further government economic stimulus measures, and d) heavier government spending.
The JCI rebounded to about 7,000 after bottoming out at 5,968 on 9 April, following a series of developments including corporate buyback announcements, the creation of Danantara, and market anticipation of a BI rate cut which materialised on 21 May (25bp cut). Catalysts to monitor in 2H25 are further rate BI cut(s), a slowdown in SRBI reissuance which would free up banking liquidity, further government economic stimulus measures, and heavier government spending. • In need of a rate cut and an in...
We met with 12 investors in Kuala Lumpur, and the overall tone among Malaysian-based funds can be best described as cautious but engaged. Indonesia remains firmly on their radar, but several overhangs persist, particularly around the evolving political landscape, policy clarity, the free meal programme and weak purchasing power. 2H25 government spending and a further rate cut are catalysts, in our view. Our year-end target for the JCI is 7,500.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Takeaways from channel check at The Southside. INDONESIA Strategy Higher Oil Prices Bode Well For Some Participants Beneficiaries of higher oil prices. Takeaways From Our Marketing Trip To Kuala Lumpur Cautious but engaged. MALAYSIA Sector Construction Sector resists tensions from global uncerta...
Strategy: Higher Oil Prices Bode Well For Some Market Participants: Beneficiaries of higher oil prices. Takeaways From Our Marketing Trip To Kuala Lumpur: Cautious but engaged. TRADERS’ CORNER Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ): Technical BUY Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ): Technical BUY
Liquidity remains tight with deposit growth slowing and industry LDR rising to 90% in Apr 25. Banks relied on BI repo facilities while the overnight rate has consistently surpassed BI rate in recent weeks. Nevertheless, we expect liquidity to improve in 2H25 due to the recent rate cut, lower PLM, and higher foreign borrowing limits. SRBI issuance has eased though it remains substantial. Expected higher fiscal spending in 2H25 could facilitate greater liquidity. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Calls: Add Prudential and Sino Biopharm to our BUY list. Take profit on SHKP and Trip.com. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In May: Good performances from most with the exception of GOTO and BUKA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Raising Emphasis On Infrastructure Plays: Our May 25 Alpha Picks outperformed with resounding success. June 25 picks: Duopharma, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, MYEG, Northeast Group. SINGAPORE S...
Banks showed mixed earnings, with BBCA and BRIS leading profit growth, while BBRI saw a decline in 1Q25. Loan growth was flat qoq due to tight liquidity and cautious loan disbursements. BBCA and BMRI had the best asset quality while BBRI faced elevated credit costs. The impact of the tariff war could be visible in 2Q25. Despite headwinds, banks remain fundamentally strong. We maintain OVERWEIGHT on expectations of: a) rate cuts, b) higher fiscal spending in 2H25, and c) reduced SRBI reissuance.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Calls: Add Alibaba, Innovent, Shuanghuan, Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit on JBM Healthcare and CR Land. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Apr 25: Remove ICBP, EXCL and MIKA; add BBTN and GOTO. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Capitalising On Sentiment Turnaround: Our Apr 25 Alpha Picks underperformed. May 25 picks: Duopharma, Gamuda, IJM, IOI Properties, TIME dotCom, MYEG, Nationgate, Northeast Group and RHB Bank. SINGAPO...
GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation Deflationary pressures remain. Sector Automobile Weekly: Direct impacts from US tariffs contained; indirect spillovers uncertain. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV. Update Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$81.55/Target: HK$108.80) 1Q25 sales me...
Indonesian banks face risks from global trade tensions through corporate borrowers, exporters and forex exposure. Historical data for 2012–24 shows banks' resilience during major shocks like COVID-19, the taper tantrum and the US-China trade war. Stress tests show that CAR remains above regulatory minimums even in severe scenarios, supported by strong capitalisation. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. BBCA is our top pick due to its robust CAR and ample liquidity. Tactical trades can be deployed around volati...
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