reports
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Ceilica Su Rui
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Jun Sian Tan
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, April 29, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$5.72/Target: HK$6.40): 1Q24: Below expectations; low wind speed weighed on performance. COSCO SHIPPING Ports (1199 HK/BUY/HK$4.62/Target: HK$6.75): 1Q24: Results in line; steady performance in a seasonally slow quarter with headwinds. Dian Diagnostics (300244 CH/BUY/Rmb14.13/Target: Rmb18.50): 1Q24: ICL revenue growth satisfactory; esoteric testing and self-developed product segments remain 2024’s key growth drivers. Foshan Haitian Flavou...
AMATA AMATA CORP
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
6WX CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP CORP. LTD. CLASS H
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
603288 FOSHAN HAITIAN FLAVOURING & FOOD CO. LTD. CLASS A
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
IFAST IFAST CORP LTD
PDD PINDUODUO PDD US
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
CLI CAPITALAND INVESTMENT LTD
AIRPORT MALAYSIA AIRPORTS HOLDINGS BHD
300244 DIAN DIAGNOSTICS GROUP CO
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - 1Q24: Higher Credit Cost Drags Down ...
1Q24 net profit was up 2.5% yoy (-1.4% qoq), supported by: a) strong loan growth, b) higher yield, and c) lower opex, while NPL of 3.1% and CoC of 3.83% were higher than expected. We downgrade our 2024 net profit estimate by 4.8% as we cut our NIM assumption by 20bp and raise our CoC assumption by 50bp. A strong recovery income of Rp20t-24t should support top-line growth. BBRI is trading at 2.1x forward P/B, below its mean five-year historical forward P/B. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rp5,800.
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Monday, April 29, 2024
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/BUY/Rp4,830/Target: Rp5,800): 1Q24: Higher credit cost dragged down net profit growth. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of Rp5,800. Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ/BUY/Rp1,290/Target: Rp1,700): 1Q24: Net profit up 7.4% yoy on strong loan growth and lower CoC. TRADERS’ CORNER Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ): Technical BUY Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ): Technical BUY
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Potential Impact Of Middle East Conflict
The Middle East conflict could impact financial markets if Iran or another major Islamic country is involved. The rupiah depreciation could be the biggest concern for the Indonesian economy. Oil, LNG, nickel and copper prices have rallied. Commodity companies could benefit from high prices while consumer companies could be negatively impacted. Banks should be neutral and their valuations are now more reasonable. Our top picks are: BBNI, BBRI, CTRA, BSDE, BUKA, ACES, JSMR, NCKL, AKRA and TAPG.
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
TAPG TRIPUTRA AGRO PERSADA PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
- Hendri Effendi
- Johnny Yum
- Paula Ruth
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Strategy: Potential Impact Of The Middle East Conflict: Our top picks: Banking – BBNI, BBTN; property − BSDE, CTRA; technology – BUKA; consumer − MYOR, CMRY; retail – ACES; infrastructure – JSMR; mining – NCKL. Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ/BUY/Rp3,170/Target: Rp4,400): 1Q24: Net profit up 20% qoq, partly thanks to margin expansion. Maintain BUY. TRADERS’ CORNER Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ): Technical BUY Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ): Technical BUY
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
PTI TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA TBK PT (ADR)
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
TAPG TRIPUTRA AGRO PERSADA PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking – CoF Remains Elevated Due To Liquidity Tightening
As of Feb 24, CoF remained elevated. Combined unconsolidated interest expenses of the big four banks increased 44% yoy in 2M24 while NIM contracted by 21bp in 2M24. Based on historical data, tighter liquidity could improve Indonesian banks’ NIM due to more efficient funding usage. Nevertheless, a longer-term, tighter liquidity can lower NIM. The impact could be different for individual banks, depending on the banks’ funding and asset composition. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: BBCA and BMRI.
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Jonathan Koh
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
ASEAN Banks – ASEAN Banks: Quarterly Update
OVERWEIGHT on Indonesia banks as they offer the highest earnings growth in 2024/25 and benefit from the recent rally in commodity prices. We like Singapore banks for their attractive dividend yields. Our top BUYs are DBS (Target: S$43.25), CIMB (Target: RM7.33), SCB X (Target: Bt130) and BMRI (Target: Rp7,900). We also like OCBC (Target: S$18.15), RHB (Target: RM6.18) and BBNI (Target: Rp6,300) as attractive yield plays.
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
BBL BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
D05 DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
KTB KRUNG THAI BANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
U11 UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD. (SINGAPORE)
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
SCB SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
PBBANK PUBLIC BANK BERHAD
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
HLFG HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP
AMM AMMB HOLDINGS BHD
HLBK HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD
ABMB ALLIANCE BANK MALAYSIA BHD
ABANK AFFIN BANK BHD
TTB TMBTHANACHART BANK PCL
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BBYB BANK NEO COMMERCE
BIMB BANK ISLAM MALAYSIA BHD
BTPS BANK TABUNGAN PENSIUNAN NASIONAL SYARIAH TBK PT
MAYBANK MALAYAN BANKING BHD
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking – Loan Growth To Support Earnings Growth in 2024
Indonesian banks could sustain their lofty valuations on the back of: a) solid bank performances, b) stability after the election, and c) a resilient domestic economy. The rate cuts, which are expected to take place in 2H24, can serve as a positive catalyst as rate cuts usually have a positive impact on Indonesian banks. Following a 15% CAGR net profit in 2019-23, we expect the big four banks to deliver 11%/10% net profit growth in 2024/25 respectively. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Our top picks: BBNI, ...
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Greater China Research Team
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jonathan Koh
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Paula Ruth
- Philip Wong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Singapore Research Team
- Sunny Chen
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, February 02, 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls We remain hedged, adding COSCO Shipping Holdings and Foxconn Industrial Internet to our BUY list, but include additional SELL calls on Li Auto and Xpeng. Sector Automobile: Weekly: EV sales remain lukewarm in the fourth week of 2024. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Li Auto. Update Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH/BUY/Rmb273.19/Target: Rmb360.00): Acquires 21.12% stake in APT Medical; embracing tremendous business opportu...
AMATA AMATA CORP
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
BN4 KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
FNH FRASER & NEAVE HOLDINGS BHD
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
300760 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
CTOS CTOS DIGITAL BHD
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - 4Q23: 10.5% qoq Profit Growth Amid H...
4Q23 net profit rose 10.5% qoq on the back of lower CoC and stronger recovery income. CoF spiked in 4Q23 given the tighter liquidity, which would likely continue into 1H24. Nevertheless, a better asset mix may offset the impact from high CoF. The micro and small segments should see an improvement, supported by an expected acceleration in government spending. CoC will remain high in 2024 as BBRI has guided for a sizeable write-off. DPR remains high at 85% Maintain BUY with a higher target price: ...
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Friday, February 2, 2024
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/BUY/Rp5,750/Target: Rp6,400): 4Q23: 10.5% qoq profit growth amid higher CoF and pressure on micro segment. PT Telkom (TLKM IJ/HOLD/Rp4,040.00/Target: Rp4,400.00): Moderate EBITDA growth of 5% yoy in 2024. Downgrade to HOLD. TRADERS’ CORNER Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ): Technical BUY Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ): Technical BUY
- Jonathan Koh
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
ASEAN Banks – ASEAN Banks: Quarterly Update
Interest rates have peaked and entered a downcycle. Indonesian banks are the biggest beneficiaries of lower interest rates and have the highest earnings growth in 2024 and 2025. Our top BUYs are OCBC (Target: S$16.85), CIMB (Target: RM6.65), SCB X (Target: Bt124) and BBNI (Target: Rp6,300). Yield plays, such as DBS (Target: S$41.65), RHB (Target: RM6.35), KTB (Target: Bt21.50) and BMRI (Target: Rp6,500), are attractive in an environment of lower bond yields.
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
BBL BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
D05 DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
KTB KRUNG THAI BANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
U11 UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD. (SINGAPORE)
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
SCB SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
PBBANK PUBLIC BANK BERHAD
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
HLFG HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP
AMM AMMB HOLDINGS BHD
HLBK HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD
ABMB ALLIANCE BANK MALAYSIA BHD
ABANK AFFIN BANK BHD
TTB TMBTHANACHART BANK PCL
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BBYB BANK NEO COMMERCE
BIMB BANK ISLAM MALAYSIA BHD
BTPS BANK TABUNGAN PENSIUNAN NASIONAL SYARIAH TBK PT
MAYBANK MALAYAN BANKING BHD
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Jonathan Koh
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Monday, January 15, 2024
Banks - Regional: ASEAN Banks: quarterly update. Plantation - Regional: Maintain 2024 CPO ASP at RM4,200/tonne, with pricing expected to be higher in 1H24. Accumulate Malaysia upstream players and companies with better-than-peers production growth. Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ/BUY/Rp810/Target: Rp1,200): Market yet to account for net margin expansion. TRADERS’ CORNER United Tractors (UNTR IJ): Technical BUY ESSA Industries Indonesia (ESSA IJ): Technical BUY
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
LSIP PP LONDON SUMATRA INDONES PT
TAPG TRIPUTRA AGRO PERSADA PT
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BBYB BANK NEO COMMERCE
BTPS BANK TABUNGAN PENSIUNAN NASIONAL SYARIAH TBK PT
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking – Loan Growth Accelerates In Nov 23 Amid Liquidity Tightening
Money supply grew 3.3% yoy in Nov 23, which was the slowest growth since 2010. We expect political activities and BI’s liquidity incentive policies to improve the liquidity environment. Despite the liquidity tightening, loan growth accelerated to 9.7% yoy in Nov 23 (Oct 23: 8.7%). Manageable opex and lower CoC continued to support the strong earnings growth, with unconsolidated net profit of the big four banks growing 18.2% yoy in 11M23. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: BBNI and BMRI.
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking – Acceleration In Government Spending To Support Earnings In 4...
Despite pressure from higher CoF, the Big Four banks posted solid 3Q23 results with still high ROEs, improvement in asset quality, and robust CAR. Higher-for-longer interest rates and tighter liquidity could pressure banks’ earnings in 4Q23. Nevertheless, we expect government spending to accelerate, with that of 9M23 (+2.8% yoy) being the slowest since 2018 (9M22: 5.9% yoy). The acceleration can improve the liquidity environment and stimulate domestic demand. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: BBNI...
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - 3Q23: Higher NIM, But CoC Remains El...
Net profit was up 4.7% qoq on the back of: a) loan growth, b) higher NIM, c) strong noninterest income, and d) well-managed opex. Qoq NIM expansion was mainly driven by a higher yield and manageable CoF. BBRI’s large write-offs in 9M23 caused CoC to remained elevated on a qoq basis. NPL coverage fell to 229% (expected to normalise in the next 12-18 months to pre-COVID-19 levels). With a robust CAR of 27.5%, BBRI plans to maintain its high DPR of 85%. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rp6,100.
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