reports
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking - Sovereign Risk Premium Rising, Kopdes Weighs On SOE Banks
Sector Update | Banking We downgrade the Indonesian banking sector to MARKET WEIGHT as rising sovereign risk premiums and fiscal uncertainty increase macro volatility and cap near-term sector re-rating. While the direct earnings impact from higher bond yields remains limited, second-order risk, rupiah pressure and a shorter BI easing cycle, could weigh on NIM, credit growth, and asset quality. Kopdes loans introduce structural NIM pressure, with BBNI most exposed. Valuations stand at 1.67x P/B, ...
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Friday, March 13, 2026
Sector Update | Banking We downgrade the Indonesian banking sector to MARKET WEIGHT as rising sovereign risk premiums and fiscal uncertainty increase macro volatility and cap near-term sector re-rating. While the direct earnings impact from higher bond yields remains limited, second-order risk, rupiah pressure and a shorter BI easing cycle, could weigh on NIM, credit growth, and asset quality. Kopdes loans introduce structural NIM pressure, with BBNI most exposed. Valuations stand at 1.67x P/B, ...
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Gigi Cheuk
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Jonathan Koh
- Joyce Chu
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Kate Luang
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, February 27, 2026
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China's humanoid robotics sector is accelerating, with 2025 global shipments up 508%. Key players anticipate significant revenue contributions by 2031: CATL expects 3-7% from batteries; Minth and LeaderDrive project 5-12% and 45-65% respectively; Tuopu forecasts 15-25% from motion systems; and RoboSense targets 40-60% from LiDAR. We maintain a MARKET WEIGHT rating on the sector. Top BUY recommendations include CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth (target price ra...
BBL BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
00388 HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING LTD.
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
B8O YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD.
AWX AEM HOLDINGS
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
5347 TENAGA NASIONAL BHD
AP AP THAILAND
AXIATA AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
PMAH PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDIN
WHA TB WHA CORP PCL
06160 BEIGENE LTD.
09888 BAIDU INC
STM SEATRIUM LTD
MAYBANK MALAYAN BANKING BHD
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
1523 PLOVER BAY TECHNOLOGIES LTD (1523 HK)
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - 4Q25: CASA Transformation And Pegada...
Company Results | Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/BUY/Rp3,950/Target: Rp4,250) BBRI posted 4Q25 net profit of Rp15.9t (+9.5% qoq), bringing 2025 profit to Rp56.7t (-5.5% yoy), broadly in line with expectations. Structural funding improvement lifted CASA ratio to 70.6%, compressing CoF to 2.9%, and helped to maintain consolidated NIM at 7.8%, supported by Pegadaian’s high-margin contribution. Asset quality remains the key overhang, particularly from the 2023 Kupedes batch, but improving LaR and ne...
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Friday, February 27, 2026
Company Results | Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/BUY/Rp3,950/Target: Rp4,250) BBRI posted 4Q25 net profit of Rp15.9t (+9.5% qoq), bringing 2025 profit to Rp56.7t (-5.5% yoy), broadly in line with expectations. Structural funding improvement lifted CASA ratio to 70.6%, compressing CoF to 2.9%, and helped to maintain consolidated NIM at 7.8%, supported by Pegadaian’s high-margin contribution. Asset quality remains the key overhang, particularly from the 2023 Kupedes batch, but improving LaR and ne...
Moody's Ratings changes outlooks on five Indonesian banks to negative ...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today changed the outlooks on five Indonesian banks to negative from stable, following the affirmation of the Government of Indonesia's Baa2 issuer rating and change in outlook to negative from stable on 5 February 2026. The five banks include Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk...
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT: 1 director
A director at Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT bought 98,000 shares at 3,640.000IDR and the significance rating of the trade was 51/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors ove...
- Johnny Yum
Strategy - Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebalancing
Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebalancing Our portfolio outperformed the JCI by 10.2%. January volatility hit the JCI after MSCI flagged free float transparency and investability risks, reversing record highs into foreign-led sell-offs and a late-month correction. In response, regulators are shifting from short-term stabilisation toward structural repair, with greater emphasis on transparency and investability. The strategy pivots towards liquid and dividend-paying blu...
- Audrey Celia
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Damon Shen
- Gigi Cheuk
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum
- Jonathan Koh
- Joyce Chu
- Kate Luang
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Kong Ho Meng
- Krit Tanarattananon
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Suryaputra Wijaksana
- Thailand Research Team
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, February 03, 2026
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
KTC KRUNGTHAI CARD PCL
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
IVL INDORAMA VENTURES PUBLIC CO. LTD.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
BUOU FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
C6L SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD.
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
PTTEP PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PLC
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
WPRTS MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
06088 WESTPORTS HOLDINGS BHD
ICBP FIT HON TENG LIMITED
RATCH INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
UHU RATCH GROUP PUBLIC CO. LTD.
CRPU UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
CICT SASSEUR REIT (S CHIP)
SCGP CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
LREIT SP SCG PACKAGING PCL
OXMU LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
HMN PRIME US REIT
CLCT ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
KORE CAPITALAND CHINA TRUST
BBNI KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
GOTO BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
MXNU PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
CLAR ELITE COMMERCIAL REIT MGNT PTE LTD
DCRU CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
DIGITAL CORE REIT MANAGEMENT PTE. LTD.
- Audrey Celia
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Suryaputra Wijaksana
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, February 3, 2026
Economics | Indonesia Headline Inflation Rises On Low-base Effect, Core Inflation Remains Stable Indonesia's headline inflation rose to 3.55% yoy in Jan 26, primarily driven by temporary base effects from last year's low electricity tariffs and high global gold prices. However, core inflation remained stable at 2.45%, and prices fell mom due to a strong food harvest. This indicates underlying demand pressures are still contained. Consequently, Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain its benchmark...
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Alden Gabriel Lam
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - Positive Sentiment On LQ45
Strategy | Positive Sentiment On LQ45 Following MSCI’s freeze on index inclusions and deletions, the government plans to raise equity investment limits for pension funds and insurance companies from 8% to 20%, broadly in line with OECD practices. Investment allocation is expected to focus on LQ45 constituents. For context, the LQ45 index has underperformed the JCI by approximately 16.0% over the past year. Highlights • JCI declined by -7.2% over the past three trading days after the freeze on ...
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
- Alden Gabriel Lam
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benyamin Mikael
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Singapore Research Team
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tham Mun Hon
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, February 02, 2026
Greater China Economics | PMI January PMI was below Bloomberg’s consensus, as the manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2 (-0.9pt mom). The manufacturing output sub-index stayed marginally expansionary, while the new orders and new export orders sub-indices weakened. The purchase prices sub-index surged, pointing to higher cost pressure for manufacturers. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4 (-0.8pt mom), mainly driven by a sharp contraction in the construction industry index. Large enterpri...
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
D05 DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
C09 CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
IRPC IRPC PUBLIC CO. LTD.
U11 UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD. (SINGAPORE)
BN2 VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS
002230 IFLYTEK CO. LTD. CLASS A
N2IU MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SPRC STAR PETROLEUM REFINING
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
SATS SP SATS LTD.
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
CAO CHINA AVIATION OIL SINGAPORE CORP LTD
PROP PROPNEX LTD
FEH FOOD EMPIRE HOLDINGS LTD
CSSC CHINA SUNSINE CHEMICAL HOLDINGS LTD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
HLA HONG LEONG ASIA LTD
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 BAIDU INC
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
DEWA IJ DARMA HENWA (DEWA IJ)
ASL SP ASL MARINE (ASL SP)
UGAI ULTRAGREEN.AI LIMITED
RGL RECLAIMS GLOBAL
- Alden Gabriel Lam
- Benyamin Mikael
- Maskun Ramli
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Monday, February 2, 2026
Strategy | Positive Sentiment On LQ45 Following MSCI’s freeze on index inclusions and deletions, the government plans to raise equity investment limits for pension funds and insurance companies from 8% to 20%, broadly in line with OECD practices. Investment allocation is expected to focus on LQ45 constituents. For context, the LQ45 index has underperformed the JCI by approximately 16.0% over the past year. Company Results | Darma Henwa (DEWA IJ/BUY/Rp540/Target: Rp1,500) DEWA delivered in-line ...
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
DEWA IJ DARMA HENWA (DEWA IJ)
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking - 11M25: 2025 On Track, Composition Sets 2026 Outlook
Sector Update | Banking 11M25 results confirm that FY25 earnings are broadly in line, but the sector’s earnings framework has shifted. All major banks saw declines in NIMs and asset yields and moderating core profitability, reflecting a broader normalisation in earnings drivers. As liquidity conditions improve, the sector moves into 2026 with earnings more dependent on loan growth delivery, funding mix optimisation, and operating execution. Highlights • 11M25 broadly in line; but earnings compo...
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Sector Update | Banking 11M25 results confirm that FY25 earnings are broadly in line, but the sector’s earnings framework has shifted. All major banks saw declines in NIMs and asset yields and moderating core profitability, reflecting a broader normalisation in earnings drivers. As liquidity conditions improve, the sector moves into 2026 with earnings more dependent on loan growth delivery, funding mix optimisation, and operating execution. Technical Analysis AKR Corporindo | AKRA IJ Trading Bu...
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking - Liquidity Is Back, But Growth Must Be Earned
Sector Update | Banking Indonesia’s banking sector enters 2026 in a normalisation phase, with liquidity improving and funding costs easing, leaving system liquidity more manageable. Achieving BI’s 8-12% loan growth target hinges on a broader corporate and MSME recovery. Meanwhile, with NIM expected to be stable to mildly softer and credit costs near structural floors for some banks, the key differentiator shifts to deployable liquidity and credit-cost resilience across banks. Valuations remain r...
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Monday, January 19, 2026
Sector Update | Banking Indonesia’s banking sector enters 2026 in a normalisation phase, with liquidity improving and funding costs easing, leaving system liquidity more manageable. Achieving BI’s 8-12% loan growth target hinges on a broader corporate and MSME recovery. Meanwhile, with NIM expected to be stable to mildly softer and credit costs near structural floors for some banks, the key differentiator shifts to deployable liquidity and credit-cost resilience across banks. Valuations remain r...
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking - Contained Banking-Sector Risk From Sumatra Floods
Sector Update | Banking The Sumatra floods have caused severe local disruptions and exacted a tragic humanitarian toll, resulting in a GDP drag of 0.1% in 4Q25. Banking-system exposure is modest at 5% of loans, with near-term pressure concentrated in micro and SME borrowers. Provisioning may rise slightly in 1Q26 but remains manageable given strong sector buffers. Exposure varies across banks, with BRIS and BBRI being the most affected. Despite short-term noise, the event does not alter the sect...
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Suryaputra Wijaksana
Indonesia Daily - Wednesday, December 10, 2025
Economics | Directive Approach, Structural Limits: Assessing Indonesia's New Forex Proceed Rules Indonesia's 2026 revision of its export proceeds (DHE) rules mandates that all export earnings be placed exclusively in state-owned banks, while cutting the rupiah conversion limit to 50%. This state-directed strategy aims to mechanically boost forex reserves and stabilise the onshore currency market. However, it risks distorting the banking sector, creating liabilities for state banks and squeezing ...
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