RH Petrogas’ 1H25 revenue fell 19% yoy on lower oil prices and reduced liftings, but cost control helped the company to beat our earnings estimates on a run-rate basis. Free cash flow surged to US$15m, implying an annualised 28% FCF yield, supported by a net cash balance that makes up 54% of its market capitalisation. The upcoming exploration drilling in September and October, if successful, could be potential share price catalysts. Maintain BUY. Target price lowered slightly to S$0.245.
RHP reported a strong set of 1Q25 results that were above expectations. The strong results were due to higher-than-expected realised oil prices as well as strong cost control, which were able to offset an unexpected decline in oil production. In our view the company’s key share price catalysts are its two exploration wells planned for 3Q and 4Q25. We highlight RHP’s inexpensive 2024E PE and EV/EBTIDA of 9.4x and 2.2x respectively. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$0.254.
Although RHP’s production declined on a yoy basis, as did oil prices, its strong cost control (-16% yoy) resulted in the company reporting a more than fourfold increase in PATMI to US$14.6m and above our expectation. Come Jul 25, the company will drill two exploration wells at its Basin block with potential for 39mmboe of recoverable reserves. Maintain BUY. Target price raised to S$0.254.
GREATER CHINA Results Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK/BUY/HK$44.40/Target: HK$70.00): 2Q24: Solid earnings beat; strategic focus on AIGC monetisation. Poly Property Services (6049 HK/BUY/HK$25.25 /Target: HK$37.30): 1H24: Earnings in line on improved operational efficiency; expansion and cash generation capabilities weakened. Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK/HOLD/HK$13.12/Target: HK$14.00): 2Q24: Results in line; shifting focus to margin improvement amid soft macro environment. Downgrade to HOLD. ...
Due to steady yoy oil production, strong cost control (-17% yoy) and higher oil prices, RHP reported a threefold increase in PATMI to US$7.3m, in line with our expectations. During 4Q24, the company’s Basin PSC will see decent activity with the drilling of one well at the Arar Block, and the start of production from its new Piarawi well. Maintain BUY. Target price lowered slightly to S$0.231.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China and Hong Kong Property: More patience needed for China’s destocking policy; Hong Kong retail landlords facing both challenges and opportunities. INDONESIA Sector Banking: 1Q24 results wrap-up: NIM revision due to higher CoF. MALAYSIA Results Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia (CAB MK/BUY/RM19.44/Target: RM25.10): 1Q24: Within expectations. While earnings were seasonally strong, Singapore was affected by the loss of Asahi. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of RM25.10....
RHP reported a strong set of 1Q24 results that were above expectations. Net profit rose 18% yoy on the back of slightly higher oil production, better realised oil prices and very commendable cost control. Planning for the company’s two exploration wells for 2H24 remains on track. We highlight RHP’s inexpensive 2024E PE and EV/EBTIDA of 6.3x and 2.5x respectively. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$0.242.
Although RHP’s 2023/24 drilling programme yielded only one successful well out of four, this was in line with historical global exploration success rates. Excluding exploration write-offs, the company’s 2023 net profit would have beaten our forecast. RHP remains an exploration play with two wells targeting nearly 10mmboe of reserves to be drilled in 2H24. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$0.242.
GREATER CHINA Results Longfor (960 HK/BUY/HK$10.18/Target: HK$12.71): 2023: Better earnings mix and debt structure; continues to optimise development model in 2024. Meituan (3690 HK/HOLD/HK$88.25/Target: HK$80.00): 4Q23: In line; margins pressured by lacklustre AOV and competition in in-store business. Orient Overseas (International) (316 HK/HOLD/HK$99.70/Target: HK$107.70): 2023: Results missed on margin pressure; share price more fairly valued after a sharp 16.7% decline post results. Upgrade ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls: We add a mix of turnaround stocks and beneficiaries of policy support to our BUY list − CSPC, HKEX, Lenovo, Longfor, Pinduoduo and Sunny Optical. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance With A 3.7% Return: Our picks are GOTO, BMRI, JSMR, TLKM, BBNI, NCKL, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Still Focusing On Domestic Winners: Our Alpha Picks trounced the FBMKLCI in Nov 23, mostly thanks to Hume’s run-up. De...
Global markets rallied in Nov 23 as encouraging economic data, cooling inflation and dovish comments from the US Fed raised hopes of an end to the rate-hike cycle. This enabled our Alpha Picks portfolio, which rose 1.5% mom in Nov 23, to beat the STI by 1.3ppt on an equal-weighted basis. For Dec 23, we add VALUE and VMS, while removing THBEV and CSE.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls: We add a mix of defensives and turnaround stocks − COSCO Shipping, CR Mixc, Great Wall Motor, Innovent, Link REIT and NetEase − to our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance Despite Negative Returns: Our picks: TLKM, BBNI, SMGR, NCKL, CTRA, MYOR, AKRA and CMRY. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Focusing On Domestic Winners: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the FBMKLCI in Oct 23. Nov 23 picks: BUY BURSA, EKOVEST, GENM, ...
Poor investor sentiment in Oct 23 drove our Alpha Picks portfolio into negative territory; however, it nevertheless beat the STI by 0.1ppt on a market cap-weighted basis. As a result, our portfolio has outperformed the STI 18 out of past 20 months. For Nov 23, we add SIE, ST, FEH, FEHT AND FRKN, while removing SEA, KEP and CLAS.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls: We expect further downside pressure, so we add SELLs on Henlius and Xpeng to the list, on top of BUYs on Anta, Lenovo, PICC P&C and SHKP. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Potential Bull Market in 4Q23: Our picks: BBNI, SMGR, NCKL, MAPI, CTRA, MYOR, AKRA and CMRY. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: A Handful Of Events To Capitalise On: Our Alpha Picks modestly outperformed the FBMKLCI in Sep 23. Oct 23 picks: BUY BURSA, HAPL, HUME, MAHB a...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: Adding MPM And RHP, Removing DELFI, LHN and YZJ: Our Alpha Picks portfolio outperformed for Sep 23, beating the STI by 4.7ppt. SEA Ltd, Bumitama and ComfortDelgro were the key outperformers. TRADERS’ CORNER Singapore Telecommunications (ST SP): Trading BUY Frencken Group (FRKN SP): Trading BUY
Our Alpha Picks portfolio overcame weak investor sentiment in Sep 23, beating the STI by 4.7ppt on a market cap-weighted basis and 0.4ppt on an equal-weighted basis, outperforming the STI in 17 out of the past 19 months. For Oct 23, we add MPM as we forecast higher utilisation rates, and RHP for near-term drilling upside potential. We remove DELFI and LHN due to a lack of near-term catalysts, and YZJ as we expect a quiet period for new orders.
Although RHP’s 1H23 results fell short of our expectations due to higher production costs, it is drillbit news from the company’s four wells over the course of the next few months that could add S$0.13/share to our valuation. Operationally, the highlight for 1H23 was RHP’s ability to grow its production by 4% yoy. Maintain BUY. Target price lowered slightly to S$0.238.
GREATER CHINA Results CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/BUY/HK$5.63/Target: HK$8.00): 1H23: Results in line; robust pipeline to restore double-digit revenue growth in 2024. Innovent Biologics (1801 HK/BUY/HK$30.75/Target: HK$43.00): 1H23: Results beat; proven commercial and R&D capabilities bode well for sustainable long-term growth. Jiumaojiu International Holdings (9922 HK/BUY/HK$12.50/Target: HK$18.00): 1H23: Results in line; sequential sales improvement in 2H23. Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK/BUY/H...
Indonesia’s economic performance has been strong on a ytd basis with the rupiah outperforming its regional peers, thus resulting in the JCI outperforming its peers in US dollar terms. We highlight various sectors and stocks listed on the SGX that could benefit from this strength with our top picks being Delfi, Marco Polo Marine and Raffles Medical.
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