reports
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy Update: Will ACP be Saved by Discharge Petition?
Tuesday, Rep. Yvette Clarke (D–New York) filed a discharge petition calling for a floor vote on the ACP Extension Act. The petition requires 218 signatures to be successful. In this note we analyze whether this effort is likely to be successful.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: The DoD’s Spectrum Game
This week we cover spectrum issues, with a particular focus on the implications of last week’s Department of Defense (DoD) report on the feasibility of sharing the 3.1 – 3.45GHz band with wireless carriers. Our New Street colleagues published a note describing the report and its implications for DISH/SATS, T, VZ, and TMUS.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: Shuffling Assets and Cash
Last week, EchoStar released its 10-K’s for DBS, Dish Networks, and Hughes. With these filings, we can see all the movements of cash between entities in the fourth quarter, and most of the shuffling in the first quarter. In this note, we review these cash transfers as well as the internal spectrum sale that helped fund Networks through the first quarter.
- Jonathan Chaplin
DoD spectrum report released – implications for Dish, Verizon, AT&T, a...
The DoD released its report on the feasibility of sharing the 3.1 – 3.45GHz band with Wireless Carriers. The report concludes that sharing is feasible if certain conditions are met. It also makes clear that meeting the conditions will be challenging. The ability of carriers to share the band, and the timing of its availability have important implications for the value of Dish’s spectrum and for the businesses of the national carriers generally. We cover both in this brief report.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Net Neutrality: It’s Back!
This week, we focus on the FCC’s upcoming Net Neutrality order, which is likely to be made public on Thursday and voted on April 25. The big picture is that the item will be approved on a 3-2 vote and largely resemble the 2015 order. As we have been in the past, we are skeptical that the rules will be material to the financial performance of the ISPs but there are a few interesting nuances to this iteration.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: FCC Dings Nexstar for Exceeding Ownership Limits but Real ...
Last week, the FCC ruled that Nexstar’s relationship with Mission Broadcasting’s WPIX in New York City violated its rules and the national broadcast ownership cap. In this note, we discuss how this decision reflects the priorities of the current FCC, but also broader themes related to the decline of linear television and upcoming changes to both the market and the video regulatory environment.
TMUS T-MOBILE US INC.
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC.
T AT&T INC.
SBGI SINCLAIR BROADCAST GROUP INC. CLASS A
NXST NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP INC. CLASS A
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
DISH DISH NETWORK CORPORATION CLASS A
DIS WALT DISNEY COMPANY
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
FOX FOX CORPORATION CLASS B
WBD WARNER BROS. DISCOVERY INC.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: State of Play of BEAD
In 2024-25, one of the biggest events in the telecom sector will be how the federal government and states spend the $42.5 billion Congress appropriated for deployment to unserved and underserved locations as part of the BEAD program. In this Weekend Update, we provide a state of play on the program, including outlining the process going forward, the timing, the Fiber v. FWA debate, what has worked, what challenges lie ahead, the election impact (or lack thereof) and the quick take from the compa...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: ACP Increases Supporters, Not Odds
In this Weekend Update, we start by analyzing the latest DC machinations regarding the future, if any, of the Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP), including: - Why the over 500% increase in the number of co-sponsors for an ACP extension bill is not indicative of an increase in support; - How the March letters to ACP customers might provide some early indications of what will happen in May and June if funding expires; and - How the calvary of an ACP and USF reform bill is over the horizon but t...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Congressional Signals on ACP and Tax Bill
In this Weekend Update, we focus on the signs that Congress provided this past week on two issues that directly affect the finances of ISPs: the future of ACP and taxes. As to the ACP, we discuss how extension proponents apparently failed in efforts to include an ACP extension appropriation in the recently adopted short-term budget compromise. That should surprise no one but it indicates that an extension remains an uphill struggle. Still, that possibility remains on the table but there will be ...
TMUS T-MOBILE US INC.
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC.
T AT&T INC.
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
DISH DISH NETWORK CORPORATION CLASS A
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
APPL APPLE INC - APPL - US
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: Model Update
This note covers updates to the model following consolidated EchoStar results. We increased wireless capex on the assumption that the company will raise new capital (if they don’t, capex will fall dramatically). We increased our estimate for funding required to get to mid-2026 to $3BN. We updated our valuation to $98 / share. We will have another update out once we get the Dish and DBS 10-Ks.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: Quick thoughts following the call
We published a note on results last night. In this brief note, we cover what we learned about debt exchanges and capital raising (not much), 2024 FCF expectations, trends in Retail Wireless, the process of moving Boost traffic to the Dish Network, the risk to the value of the spectrum portfolio if final build-out targets are not met, and the prospect of Dish selling spectrum.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS 4Q23 Quick Take
EBITDA results were better than we feared. It appears that most of the EBITDA pressure anticipated in the S-4 was due to non-cash impairment charges. FCF was as we expected despite this (worse than consensus). Management anticipates negative FCF for 2024, which is worse than we thought (though we don’t know what they are assuming for capex). They don’t have resources to meet November 2024 maturities.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: What to expect on Friday
EchoStar (previously Dish) is hosting a conference call on Friday at noon to discuss 4Q23 results (details). Consensus estimates appear to be a mess with not all analysts updating for the merger close. We do our best to make sense of expectations in light of how we think the Company will report results in this brief note. The key areas of focus will be funding maturities in late 2024, prospects for new debt exchanges, subscriber growth at Boost, and savings from moving Boost traffic on networ...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: ACP Odds Continue to Creep Up
In this telecom-focused update, we return to ACP’s fate, with odds still favoring funds running out despite several more signs this week suggesting support for an extension is growing. These efforts may be hampered by chaos stemming from a potential government shutdown when Congress returns, as well as a Trump “veto.”
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: DOJ to Investigate Sports Streaming Combo
This week we are publishing weekend updates on telecom and media. In this media update, we follow-up on our analysis of the new joint venture creating a streaming app that would air a large amount of sports programming with our analysis of the news that the DOJ is going to investigate the joint venture on antitrust grounds. As we discuss, the informal report that DOJ will consider the antitrust implications is not a surprise and is likely designed in part to assist those involved in the investig...
TMUS T-MOBILE US INC.
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC.
T AT&T INC.
SBGI SINCLAIR BROADCAST GROUP INC. CLASS A
NXST NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP INC. CLASS A
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
DISH DISH NETWORK CORPORATION CLASS A
DIS WALT DISNEY COMPANY
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
FOX FOX CORPORATION CLASS B
- Blair Levin
- Blair Levin
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Another Shoe Drops on Linear Television Bundles; How Will ...
In this media update we analyze the likely government reaction to the news that ESPN, Fox, and Warner Bros./Discovery will team-up to launch a new, stand-alone streaming app to air their combined sports content. That news, combined with new numbers on YouTube TV subscribers, demonstrates that the decline of linear television is accelerating.
TMUS T-MOBILE US INC.
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC.
T AT&T INC.
SBGI SINCLAIR BROADCAST GROUP INC. CLASS A
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
DISH DISH NETWORK CORPORATION CLASS A
DIS WALT DISNEY COMPANY
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
FOX FOX CORPORATION CLASS B
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Dish Bankruptcy: How Would Government React?
In this spectrum focused note, we discuss how the government is likely to react in the event of DISH bankruptcy. As we discuss, the key point for investors is that bankruptcy will change the policy priorities and the institutional power among the government actors. In particular, the competition goals of the DOJ and FCC will have to be balanced against the equity goals of the bankruptcy court. Further, the fact that DISH asks for bankruptcy court protection will inherently force the governmen...
- Blair Levin
NSR policy: Weekend Update on Telecom Policy: Prospects for Senate Tax...
In this telecom focused note we address the prospects for the Senate passing the recent House tax bill, which would provide significant financial benefits to carriers. While there is a high level of uncertainty and the dynamics are fluid, we are more optimistic about passage than we perceive the conventional wisdom to be, for reasons we discuss, including that for the business community, this provides “bird in hand” tax relief, while waiting for 2025 may prove foolhardy. But there are numerous...
TMUS T-MOBILE US INC.
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC.
T AT&T INC.
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
DISH DISH NETWORK CORPORATION CLASS A
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
APPL APPLE INC - APPL - US
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