reports
- Blair Levin
SATS and Carr’s Endgame
Last week, the dominant story in our space involved the escalation of the battle between SATS and SpaceX as well as the threat to the SATS’ spectrum licenses through two FCC investigations that Chairman Carr initiated. In this note we focus on the twists and turns of those investigations and update our thoughts on the core questions that will help investors understand the path(s) forward, with endgames that can affect not just SATS but others who utilize and seek new spectrum.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Blair Levin
FCC Chair Escalates DISH/SpaceX battle
A few weeks ago, we analyzed the latest front in the long running battle between DISH and SpaceX. That battle has escalated, with a WSJ story describing a letter from FCC Chair Carr to DISH that appears to take SpaceX’s side and two FCC public notices that appear sympathetic to SpaceX as well. In this note, we update our analysis to reflect the letter, the public notices, and what happens going forward.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: Quick thoughts on risk to licenses from FCC action
We have received a barrage of calls and emails on the risk to Dish losing licenses following an FCC letter to the company announcing plans to investigate whether the Company has met regulatory requirements. For Blair’s last note on this topic, see here. Blair will have updated thoughts out tomorrow morning. In the meantime, we provide quick answers to the two most common questions we have been getting in this note.
- Blair Levin
The Cost of the Deal: What Does the Skydance/Paramount Situation Tell ...
Paramount is entering into mediation to resolve the litigation with President Trump and remove a barrier to FCC approval of the pending acquisition by Skydance. In this note we update our thoughts on what the deal’s process tells us about pending and future deals can expect from the government approval process.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS quick thoughts following the 4Q24 call
In this follow-up, we cover: the 2GHz appraisal and implications for spectrum value and liquidity; our updated 3.45GHz valuation; our updated thoughts on taxes in the event of a sale; the impact of the above on our target price; thoughts on EchoStar’s participation in the AWS-3 auction; comments on their direct-to-device aspirations; the fate of Hughes. We also provided updated thoughts on how investors might adjust their odds on the prospects of a spectrum sale, based on comments on the call.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS 4Q24 Quick Take: Wireless has turned a corner but the road ahead ...
Wireless operating trends were better than expected. Pay-TV financials were strong. The free cash flow burn was huge due to a working capital drag that was likely driven by investments in growth in retail wireless (the Company should get this back). In addition to a detailed review of the print, in this note we cover thoughts on: 1. Whether to operate or to sell 2. The timing of a sale 3. Liquidity 4. Operating results 5. The migration of traffic onto Dish’s own network 6. The dangers of an empt...
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Carriers could spend $180BN on spectrum over the next four years
In this note we cover the potential timing of all the major spectrum auctions and transactions that could occur during the current administration, the amount of financial capacity the carriers have for purchasing this spectrum, and the intrinsic value of the spectrum. The analysis has important implications for EchoStar and for the three national carriers.
- Blair Levin
DISH Challenge to Venu Succeeds: What’s Next?
This morning, we published a note on DISH’s challenge to the Venu Joint Venture. We discussed the implications of DISH’s letter to the District Court Judge who had been overseeing the case accusing the defendants of having “purchased their way out of their antitrust violation.” The letter pointed to how the joint venture harms MVPDs like DISH by forcing DISH (or Sling) to offer big bundles while offering their own “skinny” packages. The letter concluded by saying that “EchoStar is currently ev...
- Blair Levin
DISH Challenges Disney/Venu/Fubo Deal: Implications for Investors
Earlier this week, Fubo and Disney settled their disagreement over the antitrust case Fubo had filed challenging the Disney/Warner/Fox joint venture to create a streaming sports bundle called Venu. Fubo had won the first round, with the District Court finding that the joint venture violated the antitrust laws. The defendants appealed and the case was heading towards a Court of Appeals argument. The case settled, however, because Disney agreed to buy a controlling interest in Fubo as well as p...
- Blair Levin
What to Expect in 2025: The Most Consequential Year in Communications ...
Happy New Year, welcome back and we hope those in Blair’s path found shelter from the storm. 2025 will be the most consequential year in telecom and media policy since the mid-1990’s. In this note, we preview the key policy pivots we see as likely to impact the telecom and media landscape including the macro issues of taxes, tariffs, and deportations; and the sector focused issues affecting ISPs (reorientation of BEAD, USF reform, copper retirement and cybersecurity), wireless players (spectrum...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Quick hit: spectrum auction in 2025; implications for Dish and carrier...
Blair published a note this morning that anticipates the FCC receiving authority to auction the AWS-3 licenses that Dish relinquished as part of the NDAA. We think an auction could take place in 2H25. In this brief note, we cover the implications for Dish and for the other carriers.
- Blair Levin
Finally, Hope for a (Small) Spectrum Auction
One of the must-pass pieces of legislation left for this Congress is the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The current draft now includes a provision that would appropriate $3 billion for the Rip and Replace program designed to help small telecom companies remove and replace equipment purchased from Chinese telecommunications equipment companies, equipment Congress believes creates national security risks. The legislation funds the appropriation by allowing the FCC to conduct a one-ti...
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
3Q24 Broadband Trends: FWA capacity limits; FWA demand limits
In this iteration of “Broadband Trends” we update our FWA capacity forecast. We also touch on early signs that demand for FWA may be limited, which could prevent mobile operators from reaching capacity limits (or force them to work harder to get there). This could have a big impact on the pace of Cable subscriber growth. Finally, we reprise our work on the competitive positioning of the various operators based on relative NPS scores.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: a thought on the debt exchange
In this note we show how there is at least $0.7BN of additional value on the table that could help narrow the discount DBS bondholders are being asked to accept in order to get the DTV deal across the goal line. We also run through the differences between the four segments EchoStar reports at earnings and the four filing entities they disclose to the SEC. We also update our estimates for DBS, Dish Networks and Hughes now that their 10-Q’s have been filed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar: Value increases following transactions (but takes longer to ...
We have updated our model for the sale of DBS and increased investment in network infrastructure and subscriber growth following the capital raise. We have also updated spectrum values for recent transactions. We are more confident than ever in the value that will be realized if spectrum is sold, though the timing of a sale has likely been pushed out. Dish could build a business that is as valuable as the spectrum, but it is tough to have confidence in this.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Implications of Multiple Mergers at the FCC
It appears likely that within a few months, multiple transactions—TMUS buying US Cellular, VZ buying Frontier, and DISH and DirecTV merging—will be pending at the FCC. The transactions involve all four, or three (depending on how you think about it) of the national facilities based mobile carriers. Investors have asked, how will the presence of multiple transactions affect the process of approval for each other? We address that question in this note.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: What We Learned from the DBS Deal Announcements
The big news yesterday was the announcement of a series of deals related to EchoStar, DirecTV, TPG and AT&T. Our colleagues have put out a series of notes relating to what we learned on the financial front. In this quick note we review what we learned on the antitrust/regulatory front.
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